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at the moment. I sense the empasse will come to an end soon . The obvious consolidation will give us the breakout . Haven't seen the precise levels but sub 113 or above 118 with both directions being confirmed will be the direction the share goes. At least short term . With support levels as mentioned before 98p / 104p and resistance at 132 ( if we breakout out of 118p well ) Am hoping to get OPEC out of the way as am in the long term bullish , short term retrace camp . With dollar strengthening you clealry get temporary headwinds in oil . I think we are all waiting for the 22nd of June to give us conviction .

Forgot to add that if my long term view is right ie post this year the next targets may well see a £3 in front , for 2019/2020. In 2018 I had 180-190 so I'll be crucified if not close lol . But I did make the forecast in Jan unlike the boys at Jeffries Just because I have these views those doesn't stop me believing retraces will be part of it too . How deep is what am trying to understand

Hi TheCashFerret. The 3% barrier is just media noise, it has no relevance other than being a nice headline . What you need to look at is the 2y10y spread down to 11 year lows today . In English that is a flattening of the yield curve that is getting worse. Or that would be the normal interpretation , given the QE world we have lived in , normal has to be redefined . I say media noise because if you look at the quaterly JPM Fund review they ofthen show the 2y US yield levels vs Equities performance , the point that starts to hurt equities is from around 4% ( so we are far ) second important thing to note we have to look at speed of incrementals . As we can have a great Equities market and high interest rates as we have seen in the past . Am bullish PMO but am quite battled. As many have noted . We do have a lot of conflicting indicators on Brent . Pros and Cons . I don't want to miss the long term bull run but don't want to miss out on any retrace . Lets see what we get with the FOMC tomorrow at 19.00, we have API tonight and EIA tomorrow . Either way this is a trader's issue as I said , investment wise with an outlook of 1/2 years I suspect that re-hedging on the longer dated Brent curve will have many value investors agree this is worth buying . Short term ie 1/2 months am not excluding the possibility of a retrace . Vaguely on TA am a buyer on say above 121p as for support I make it around 104.5 then 98p . In between am just watching . lets see how it plays out

Thank you . Can't understand why iii caused such an own goal . Weird decision . We have lots of crossroads out there , at 13:30 we have US Inflation , I know that most will ask why does this affect PMO . I think its the same reason we are seeing Valeon hedging something. The whole bond/currency market is correlated to commodities ( as technicians this is called intermarket analysis with a lot on the topic for those interested written by JJ Murphy) I have felt for a while that if dollar strengthened we'd see a retrace in WTI/Brent . Hence why I had taken the decision to reduce and in some cases exit my long UK Energy basket of shares. At least temporariliy . Tough decision as I am bullish long term and share Jeffries target . This is the time for Macro gurus to shine in my view .

Alfa Who the hell are you ? I have posted on LSE for about 10years just not much in the past year or 2 . And ? this site is yours ? Last I checked I didn't read that .. I see BB nutters who attack others never attack with anything intelligent to say . BBs hey ... Note that correlation . We all know who plays with toys !

I noted the topic on Voleon and wanted to add the fact that not all hedge funds go short for the same reasons many private traders etc would . A short can be a hedge or a conviction trade . You can short on technicals( ie sentiment falling or as your fundamental analsyis model tells you its worth less than market value ) or its the other side of a long equity/or portfolio. You can go short though also like we saw in Q3/Q4 2017 due to the convertible arbitrage hedge , which required the long convertible holders to hedge the equity risk . ( Convertibles are bond + equity risk ) . Collecting the premium and cancelling out equity risk I believe that Voleon is a quant fund so will be using PMO ( I was expecting to see them short other similar firms ) as a market risk hedge for a position they hold elsewhere . This is not like say a fundamentals hedge fund long short equity portfolio . I will get confirmation if I can spot other shorts they have . Again just my 2 cents

Good morning all . For those who recall on iii , I wrote back in Jan that my PMO target was 180-190 ! So feel quite nice to see Jeffries catching up with a 5 month delay ! I equally feel and felt a retrace was coming before a rally to such levels . This second part has not quite reached my expectation . Leaving me a bit baffled on a technical view / Fundamentals are instead good this H1 ( probably surpassing 2017 Ebitda already - I did forecast a doubling of 2017 as a minimum for 2018 back in Q1 ) . Uptrend a child can draw it and its clearly bullish , but within the trend there are obvious retraces ! Causing me a bit of a headache ! For investors this is all probably pointless and you'll stay long all year . For traders trying to beat the simple buy and hold there is a bit more work to do to earn the extra alpha or end up losing to buy and hold . I note that hedge funds are closing net longs on Brent and felt for a while ( my iii point on the bearish weekly Brent candle 2 weeks ago) that we'd see a retrace , probably, as I feel dollar strength coming (we'll see as am not saying am going to be right ) All in my opinion obviously

to say the least , is quite a well orchestrated one . I found the twitter accounts that mention the Ukrainian article ! Wow ! So its the poorly translated article that has driven this 2 day insane sell off. Despite the fact that its pretty clear that standard pellet production has been falling and premium rising all throughout 2016 . We know and knew that . Its a better strategy for FXPO . So why the fall ? Because the headline used was misleading quoting 11.8% production fall. Which is misleading . Look at cash generation in H2 2016 as the factual datapoint with the current standard to premium mix . That is what one needs to focus on . Not misleading headlines . Plus iron ore prices are reaching and have reached the mid $90s ! Bit annoyed today must say . As its too easy to put stuff out there these days .

Bezinio I was thinking the same . Funny if the 4.7% of the current £3m market cap of BNR becomes the most valuable asset of African potash . What I find a bit weird is that if I recall well the land / hole in the ground they had was booked at around $10m if I recall well. It was written down from a much higher figure too. The business many not be viable or indeed legit , we can only speculate and TW is totally right in attacking CC and AFPO but the mine next door is doing well and uncovering good resources. Dorking who used to work there moved to AFPO and surely he must have felt at the time that the move was a good one. Haven't seen him resign too . $10m pay not get achieved who knows but the land should have some value ? Plus indeed why would some ( services providers ) pick up shares that may not even have a market ? Very weird . As the recent 125k placing , why ? placed with whom ? Who gave CC a further 125k to keep the lights on and why ? What is the return on that idea ?

All good Lytham , happens to me too at times . Hate it lol

oh I am now targeting 225-230 . The precise figure seems to be 228 though it never seems to be so perfect. So am happy with Deutsche's view as they see that in their analyst forecast whilst I reach that on EPS view and PE ratio of 7 and more importantly to me TA wise Hopefully I continue this amazing run

Lytham No bearish engulfing actually as today's body did not engulf the previous day body in the end . yesterday's open was at 153.7 today's close was at 156p . We should have closed sub 153.7 which we did not . Hope that helps. I can send you the visual but I think your post at 16.16 is the reason you were seeing the bearish candlestick pattern as it changed in the last trading minutes . At the time of your post you were probably right I spotted that too. This remains on a uptrend and far from support. Resistance is 166p in other sites I had that target nailed to perfection on my chart and explained why that a few months in advance .

Came to test my nerves as my SL was about to get hit ! Last time we hit a support like today was at around 91.7 ish ! It then bounced to 154p ! . This time we are going higher IMO Good luck . Glad I didn't get caught out . On strength I may add tomorrow too.

Whatever way we look at this 130p seems low . We last had a bounce of a rising trend line at 91,73, my next bounce off is at 128/129. We know what happened from that bounce . Whereas a break of that trend line I reckon will hurt us .

of the rise Am finding the current consolidation a little weird yet am convinced its just a nice consolidation before next leg up Taking a look at 2015 EPS of around 20p or $0.23 P/E ratio currently at 6,61 , I find it very likely that 2016 EPS will dwarf 2015s , in fact we know that already . We have been told that our cash reserves are up $110m to $145 vs $35m in Dec 2015 . Earnings will be up too . If we were to take 30p as the soon to be reported next EPS , assuming a similar P/E ratio we have around 198p target ! Like for like . And 2017 so far has seen prices higher by quite a bit ( $58 vs nearly $80) . So again even 198p could be very conservative looking forward should iron ore prices and demand stay at current levels. The rally we saw has been great but on an EPS of 30p ( my prediction ) and current P/E ratio we are looking underpriced by quite a bit . Hence I assume a similar thought process at Deutsche and their 205p target back in Nov. I bet its higher now . Consolidating till we get the next level up IMO DYOR and no advice given , all my data comes from the RNS , P/E ratio is currently 6,61 on a 130p price , EPS for 2015 was 20p using today's FX rate of about 1.20 £GBP/USD . ( dollar strength is something that should be beneficial to FXPO )

agree Granto Especially the margins , which is what i reckon is the juicy part . I like the chart , poised to explode . The day retrace is near perfectly setting itself up

on the 9th of Jan .

can't see any reason for negativity and current support level is holding well . With iron ore prices having been so high in H2 after the production report i hope to see some good trading update. AS the figures will inevitably look good . Enjoy the peace as hopefully the next rally takes us up first to 165-170 then pass 200p . IMO As always DYOR and its just my opinion , I have been adding since the 70p days so am Long here .

I hope you are right Stonedchic .

The resolution was to add 500m to be issued as and when but truthfully who will buy them if there is no meaningful revenue stream nor truth in anything CC has said so far ? Who will ever work with him in London after this shambles . HIs reputation is going to really be quite damaging . I am left sadly with a residual holding that I held after selling into the big spike , used part of the profit to buy some at 0,8p ! What a mistake that was . Turned a great profit to a mediocre one . At best I can buy a cup of coffee now . My most embarrassing buy of all time . What surprised me is that the resolution passing means that most remaining shareholders agreed to all this ... go figure The amount here is so tiny that even 500m won't make any difference at this market price . He just needs a miracle now . A revenue stream from somewhere is much needed and a Nomad needs to be crazy enough to want to work with them . Am not holding my breath . But I have nothing left to lose bar a cup of coffee .