Member Info for onedb

I am quite happy with this deal and even more so with the current Brent value as it seriously adds value .

I see Cannacord gave Enquest a 26p target , I remain confident 30p this summer will be touched .

I own a good sized position here but don't take this as advice to buy please as it isn't its just my personal view .

Shame we can only get 5 shares for every 89 held. A small gift given my view on expected rise

me too Kraken , very weird , daily cash flow is very positive at anything above $60 so near to year highs for Brent should be very very very positive , unless barrels per day (unhedged ) * oil price mean sod all nowadays . Love to see a trading up date as this year's average brent . Well watch out as we approach $77 we may fall below 10p .... (sarcastic obviously)

Strange price action . No real need for the past 2 days drop and maybe day traders fretting too much the share was not even overbought.
Brent in the $70s in fact Brent cash over $75 with the back end of the curve rising too , will allow good hedges, Eg June 22 at $69.74 . Guarantees a huge free cash flow if they are hedging out some production .
Everyday at these levels Enquest's value is increasing , there is no disputing that am afraid

At any rate I will not be selling. Even if close to double my average price. Brent curve is all that matters to me

At least so far am finding it hard to believe that near $76 Brent is not good enough to break the year highs . I thought $60 was a good enough level for Enquest . So despite the gains of today am unimpressed. Or maybe just get grumpy

And Brent Cash at $75 . Hard not to believe in first target of 25/26p in extension to 30s later .

just want to know what happens at 25p , that is a level that is easy for all to see . Breakout or Resistance ? the more it gets tested though the bigger the odds its broken or at least that is how I learnt it. I think we'll get there .

all the best

Can't fault the technicals of the chart nor the fundamentals of Brent at the moment. (IMO)

In fact both USD/CAD and USD/NOK are coming off high RSI levels too and signalling maybe the bullishness of oil currencies.

I like to see a chart(Enquest in this case) with a positive rate of change and RSI above 60. It has strength, (for those who like TA)

If you like charting take a look at the backwardation of the futures curve for Brent and look at the June(cash) - August steepening this month so far , that is very bullish .

1) Enquest chart very promising ( not just the daily but the weekly )
2) Brent demand increasing
3) Brent futures curve in backwardation ( a positive ) with more steepening (another positive)
4) Dollar may have turned or start to turn today vs oil currencies implying bullish oil scenarios (this is also compounded by lower 10y US yields, so temporarily helps cheaper dollar for importing countries)

All in my opinion no advice intended and I do hold Enquest shares at 12.85 and usually add spread bets for extra fun.

All the best

Bonds have been having a great run since March 2020 . Look at the level they are reaching now.

I retain my 30p summer target I gave early in the year. Wil be accepting rotten tomatoes by September if wrong missed big

In the meantime Brent curve looks very healthy today, steepening of backwardation at least today. If we breakout from about $71 Brent I see Brent going to $80 this time or close , for WTI its about $66 and aiming for 74/75 .
For Enquest this should imply at the very least a retest of 25 above $71 and possibly in the 30s maybe touch 40 if Brent moves up close to the $80 level .

So to me its a buy the dips time as Brent is in an uptrend and suggests the above has some good odds.

Just to put things in perspective given that the focus is always on daily Brent's up and downs ... I say this as a minor down day on Brent always delivers the typical high beta response from Enquest.
Year to date front month future is $62.89 So if we exclude the hedged production that is your realised give or take discounts and premiums, price . I believe that there is too much focus on daily Brent price swings. We are in an uptrend and in what seems to be an increasing case for inflation and decreasing dollar index. This latter point an important component for global demand especially in emerging markets. Another point I want to single out is that vs the recent highs of 25p plus. the firm will have increased both its free cash flow and economic value. Not decreased.
So all things being equal the gap between today's price and recent highs should be retested and eventually improved.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Chinese-Traffic-Jams-and-Busy-Factories-a-Support-16117074.php

Surprised that appetite for Enquest is not getting bigger given Brent at close to $66 and year to date average keeps on increasing ( this morning at $62.15 )

For those who follow price and momentum look at the MACD standard setting 12/26/9 , its signalling a cross. Are we about to see another leg up ?

Good Evening Auson,

Am not seeing selling pressure so not sure . The past 2 days have seen sub bar volume , ( Vol 20 is around 7.1m at the moment and I think around 4.9m were exchanged today and yesterday same number more or less )
The previous 4 were up days on more volume than average .
This is how I see the Daily Https://www.tradingview.com/x/Skk1rHWA/
This is how I see the Weekly https://www.tradingview.com/x/WFo6V1Fz/

Again just my view and PMO is part of a wider Energy portfolio , so sizing , leverage ,risk management , exact TA signals , other Quant considerations I can't disclose as its proprietary .

I think the weekly is a good pointer of where I stand and what view I hold . Should give a good view IMO

Hi Plebleens ,

GS dislcosures I think started in Dec. Coinciding with the lows in PMO . So made sense to hedge a short back then . The hedge is not to protect 70p but probably to protect a profit in the 50s. Back then nobody on these bbs was speculating on Chevron's assets.
Blackrock had similar disclosures till August 2018 . Don't recall much fuss back then about it. Their last disclosure was with PMO in the 120s so not sure what they were doing . One could go nuts with speculations , I could say GS is covering a short High Beta index or portfolio back then ( Dec) and using the high beta of PMO as a hedge , who knows ? The chart of say Powershares High Beta shows the dip in Dec ... One can easily say lots of things .

As for TA , good news MACD cross on the Weekly chart ,(normally reliable for both long and shorts at standard setting )
Good news from seasonality ,as it kicks in in Feb till about Oct . Brent indeed has picked up . Thanks for the RSI bullish divergence call , that was in the 50s indeed. Lucky call.
Good news on fundamentals as we all know year to date Brent (front month future) is at about $61.5 , 2 thirds of production earning 16.5$ and the rest $24 . The total using 80k barrels is giving me around $42m a month so far .
So assume that average does not fall ( we are well ahead with cash at $66.3 ) Right now PMO is banking over $42m a month
As for Chevron its clearly playing on people's minds. Best thing is not to have single stock punt but a sector portfolio . If long oil in the UK , Shell and BP should be the top 2 core holdings IMO .

As for those saying PMO is manipulated that is not true, this trades on SETS its not on AIM small penny stock and illiquid.

At any rate the above is just my view and opinion not meant to be taken as advice or trusted ,
For disclosure I am long PMO as well as many in the sector

Thunder

No probs .I think that despite great oil prices they probably see temporary volatility for which they are now hedged. At least in the short term .

They know the fundamentals better than any of us and know that technicals etc. If the positive seasonality effect which started in Feb is good then am sure the shorts will close and the long CFDs will come down too. If on the other hand we have a bearish outlook then the shorts stay open . They leave the door open for both scenarios .

Btw am Long both Oil and Uk Energy sector so am not in their camp . If I had been shorting from 120 plus though i"d be doing the same thing .

Must say its crazy what I sometimes read on these bbs .

So reason am posting is all this hooohaaaa around the GS CFD long . For starters that is most likely NOT GS going long but someone interested on locking in profits on his/her short position , ( I trade CFDs for a living about 7/8 years ) that is how it works. Its a hedge . Maybe its MAN Ahl or all of them together etc of the disclosed shorts on FCA report , they(the shorters) have been there for a while and probably short from the 120s upwards So truly in profit and now hedging it . They locked in their profits at minimal cost and probably thinking that they needed to hedge the profit . If PMO starts to rise their CFDs will make them money to cover for the short position losing , using minimal capital , say 10% . Don't be surprised to see the Long CFD at Goldman decrease and short position decrease too. At some point .
If Stock falls they make money on the short but neutralised with by the loss on the CFDs . At the moment they are locking profits , maybe they expect short term rise in PMO or are unsure if it has further to go down.
Its absolutely normal to hedge profits .

The margin calculation you can do for yourself but for the pro's its pretty small for retail its much larger . I attach a link with a simple margin/CFD explanation but the funds behind this are paying a lot less. The expiry dates on the CFDs are just standard , nobody holds them for years . far too expensive .

Https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/learn-cfd-trading/calculating-margins

As of this very moment the Year To Date (YTD) front future Brent is at 61.44 and rising that is what matters, as do the hedges . Rest is just bb paranoia . $66.3 cash contract on Brent is excellent for PMO coffers .

telling the better story , great uptrend there must say .

A week or so ago Enquest's bonds were upgraded, suggests to me the sector that had many firms full of debt is showing good signs of recovery .

Wanted to add that as OPEC has now confirmed a largely expected supply increase , we should see oil stabilising and I believe this to be good for the sector . As long as demand is strong and under investment in the sector continues these shares prices will look like a bargain going forward. IMO

ATB

hi Ho55 No , gap had to be closed and it has now ( good quick trade for those who trade this way ) but its not my strategy, I trade the bigger swings . 5/7p is not at the moment where I am focused on . I need to run a long series of tests to see how well this strategy works , and I haven't done it yet ! But indeed the trade was good for those who took it . I was tempted too but honestly didn't do it. Missed out . I also doubt we'll get a higher high today with a substantial move expectation there after, so for now am on the sidelines with the CFD positions. Just my view and am sure and agree there is good money to be made by trading intraday too, but am more focused on longer timeframes. ( usually at least with the odd exception when am bored )

over the weekend I anticipated this move and wrote quite a detailied post . Seems to have been pushed down the list a little too much amidst loads of other posts. But hopefully the thread can help. For those interested in trading and correlations I thought it was worth reading . Support levels included . Highly anticipated move in my posts and UK sector review . When I read someone posted that this week was going to stay between 110-114 I wanted to point out the weekly ATR, as such view was implying a very small volatility range vs the norm of around 11p last week ! Not realistic . When in doubt of how to look at an indicator am always happy to exchange my views and some testing results . All the best

you need to spot these retraces and act on them BransonBull , if you want to perform well. I just pointed a few things I hope some ( not all ) may find interesting and usefull ! Dollar strength was in my view highly anticipated in price action . So hopefully you found my post helpful , that is all . Its not meant to be advice or taken as being totally right . You and others can judge the track record over the years ;-) Have a great day .

within a bullish trend has gathered more traction I reckon following Friday's price action For those who followed 2/3 weeks ago I commented on the bearish engulfing candle on the weekly on Brent ( I hightly suggest looking at weekly charts ) and to plot the WTI /Brent differentials. They are very good indicators I have used to my advantage > heck $79 short on Brent to last night's prices is not a bad call . What does all this mean for PMO . As those on iii remember , there was a split bewteen those with a bullish and stay long strategy ( -which works if the the bias is bullish -but we know 'buy and hold' is not a superior strategy than a diversified one ) and the other camp i.e. 2 heavily bearish retrace viewers and myself calling the retrace but not as deep maybe as the other 2 . When I got stopped on a tentative 118,6 level that was me giving the possibility to the bull case ( I.e. in case I was wrong ) but the stop saved me what looks like a 10p loss now . I justified my Brent calls as I was firmly of the belief that DXY was showing a bullish bias and pattern and the widely anticipated 2% hike on the FED rates was confirmed. In fact those who reach out to me privately have had the exact levels & charts given on PMO (I do this across all Energy , some Tech, Property & Banks usually) Is this bad news? have gone bearish? no essentially . I struggle to find reasons & major analysts ( I track the track records so have a good idea of who is lucky & who has 10 years worth of good results ) who are not very bullish later on. There are a few I have to say . But not in the majority . I reckon PMO break out of the 113p level ( as mentioned here too when I posted 113 - 118 levels to watch post ) will lead to the next support level . On the weekly its 104.5 , on the daily around 98.5p . this was the chart I was showing on Thursday and I added the DXY one which to me appeared like a classic pattern loved by the astrologists ie a cup and handle ( in other words am seeing stronger dollar for now ) PMO below till Thursday http://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_130e274bb044cb8a2b19fab25015dc63.png Now you can see why I was saying 113 - 118. Won't bore with DXY and BRENT charts but they are important to chart (for those interested plot them) The bigger PMO chart I will post later tonight or tomorrow . A retrace in the sector is not a big deal & will give us a smart buy back at cheaper levels ! I am strongly bullish PMO ( before anyone thinks am not ) But as things stand my original view posted on my website is spot on. Retrace is on and I was maybe 1 week too early back on the 29th of May when the view was released. Remember seasonality & in September oil is bought back , so am of the view at least for now that the next few weeks may be a bit tough for the Long short term case but once we get a good wash out the targets I wrote about early in the year ( ie in Jan vs Jeffries June vi