Member Info for onedb

OT
January 2 . Its great you will enjoy it

Well am only 2p up 12.19% based on my entry and looking at the excel sheet I now opened . I haven't missed that much . Read my post

same Stumpy , more tomorrow if it breaks out of a pattern I see. I will see to add more tomorrow

oh no Kraken I hope not lol . I don't fully understand if this is all down to sentiment as the net margin for all or many of these stocks is surely increasing rapidly . Look at say EXh1 vs UKoil chart and see 2015 to 2020 ( do a compare) there you see that the ETF out performs as it should Brent once over a certain breakeven price. That makes sense, it should ever more as firms margins get higher. Say 50$ is breakeven then $60 price (unhedged and hedged ) then am making $10 . Once we reach 70$ that is 20 net hence 100% gain . Well that is not reflected in today's energy stocks. Big or small caps

XOP/USOIL is a classic case in point where XOP the US ETF for producers and explorers is strongly under performing from late November . Not making much sense

Unless maybe too high a dollar is not appreciated .

I was stopped at 18.3 on my physical 19th of Nov l and spreads via CMC at 25.22 at 8.02 on October 28th as notified to my compliance officer. As these are my personal dealings . I bought back at 19.24 plus comm I think its around 19,38 net on Nov 23 .
I was long from 12.85 plus the subscriptions at 19 .

Gutted as I could have sold all at 25.22 not just the spreads and banked just on Enq an awesome 2021 . THe joys of trading .

Happy that today ENQ did not go sub the 200ma as once again It may have triggered my stops ( both a little in the money )

Why can't I be back by the way ? is there a rule of what I can trade or not ? or how or does one have a view and not place stops ? What do you care ? By the way is this account created just to attack me ? lol

for the big boys that is also down 1.23% . This is a general theme

Yet taking a look at BRent curve or WTI the 2/3s is in strong backwardation .

For me this is all about sentiment . and the need to for divi's in the industry

Down 1.7% BP and Shell 2.35% .

I think its been written on this bb . They will be needing to start to pay out huge divis. I am pretty sure they are making lots of money at the moment which is not reflected in the price whatsover nor sentiment

I agree ! $88 dollars should be creating a huge margin between costs and the net between hedged and unhedged .

How can Enq underperform Brent like this once over $70 ? Is this madness ?

be quoting the price of a packet of crisps given that HBR doesn't care .

Price down over 5% with BRent cash at $88 and now up on the day too

Either this is a game played by some market players or something is crazy and this is a steal .

Market cap losses millions with Brent up . Think about it its mental . $88.7 Cash Brent as I type up 0.2%

Should be at 30p plus by now at least

I look at ticker EXH1 as the EuroStoxx 600 OIl and Gas ETF for Europe, its crazy how that keeps on earning me whilst HBR (not included as a bit too small) is under performing it. Yet sector is doing well and warming up .

Is this just a matter of time ? Was hedging a little too conservative here ? If anyone has access to the broker detailed reports please share if allowed.

HBR WAKE UP PLEASE

morning Jeff was reading about the bit you write about yields and indeed we could do with a decrease in the rate of change as too steep stifles tech/growth stocks yet good for oil/energy med term as high yields come as a result of expected higher inflation etc . Hence Oil up.
I agree with all that it's text book .
Technically we in an uptrend channel since mid Dec but long term range bound with 440p top to beat.
What I really don't understand is how with Brent at $88 (hedged bit at $61 for 2022 on 19m) and UK gas at 180p ( hedged bit at 47p I think for 25m boepd) has the price under performed Brent by so much or UK gas ? that is totally weird as we know that all things being more or less above $75 Brent this year will point towards a similar RNS for Genel i.e. a doubling of free cash flow.

So what is it that price is not seeing ? Sentiment alone ? Need for free cash flow from Tolmount to significantly add cash flow given the more that 3.5 times current hedged production ? A monthly trading update to release some good news on cash flow ?

I'd love to know as no broker sees current price as adequate .

Or is price subdued as shares are pre sold initially by the brokers as part of a lockup deal, hence post say March this flies as no more unwinding ? Who knows but worth figuring out .

I hope so. I only have one pain in my oil basket and that too I hope will sooner or let be allowed to move up .

But it's wrong though , its not a bearish harami . Not on Trading View not on CMC and not on Interactive Brokers.

Never good evening,

You are looking at US not UK prices which are still three times the level they were back in Jan 2021 mind you. But not the silly prices seen due to political issues with Russia earlier in Dec .
If you use trading view dot com the ticker is GWM1! for the front month future of ICE .
or look at this link from Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/quote/NGLNMc1

All in all gas has had a tremendous run so can't wait to see revenues if unhedged come in as it will be a massive boost. I totally agree . MAybe once the market sees that this team can deliver it will get more excited as well as being able to see the extra revenues

Am long so biased, but honestly not getting the huge disconnect here. This range bound price action with top band at 440 is a level that once broken should deliver a very juicy target for those into just price action

Hi Jeff, been busy . Nov and Dec were tough markets wise .

Yield curve rising , flattening or inverting . Rising is inflationary and good for energy and financials. For example and not only
Various parts of the curve will give you clues as will the rate of change of the steepening or inverting . On inverting I tend to go defensive and buy staples, a classic move. On a serious steepening I would move from growth to value . So would be careful on my Nasdaq and Tech longs .
That is what I meant . In super simple terms

WTI is a function of supply and demand indeed but those are determined by inflationary pressure and dollar. Hence again Bond yield curve . From experience the fixed income desk has always the smarter kids on average vs the equity desk, at least in terms of maths background .

jeff,

For markets overall start with Bond price action as your first port of call in the morning , yield curves plotting should be mandatory for any investor. tells you which sector you really should be in , dollar index next , and then understanding sector rotation , factor rotation , volatility and market breadth ( key this one too ) etc . My basic routine is a lot longer but that is a start .

cheers Plebleens .

Basing my view with some good moving average crosses :

5ma nearly passing 50ma and 200ma ,
20 Ma finally moving up
Price breaking above 200ma
Rsi still only at 57 .

This move has legs in my view . Remember channel resistance is at around 440 and this is my target on this leg up

Lets see . Another test of 440 is my view coming next 10 days but really remains too cheap even at that level .

The more we test it the more odds it will breakout at some point in Q1

Want to see that broken , the more it gets tested the more likely price should finally cross. Am still holding my 19.33s or pre Christmas trade . No change for me . Once we pass the technical level I'll feel more bullish . But surprised given Brent is so high really surprised as both this and many other oillies will go towards no debt give it 18 to 36months depending on which company , with HBR now paying a divi too.