Member Info for onedb

Oil hedged at circa 50% = $61bpd vs $94 on Friday

Gas a little over 50% at 46p ( versus about 200p open market )

I believe Tolmout is 100% unhedged so a total money machine at current prices of 200p its insane how good this is

See presentation page 7 for details
https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/j31ot3aa/220112-investor-presentation-bnp-paribas-conf-jan-2022-vf.pdf

Gas prices
https://www.reuters.com/quote/NGLNMc1 200p

Harbour energy has to recover by 84% last i checked on Friday to reach its 52 week high which Shell and BP have already and that implies a price of 670p . Why we aren't there yet is beyond me a but a good market opportunity I think hence why am long here . Time will tell . We need some momentum and a retest of 440 . Break from there and my confidence will grow that 670 will be in the cards this year

hi Romaron , All I was saying is that track records of many of these analysts are poor both for upgrades and downgrades . Yet those who like to spread doom and gloom use the analyst's view when the rating is in their favour ie to forward their thesis, whilst when its at 35p they won't say a peep . Its very subjective if people/posters use analyst views when it suits their agenda .

anyway i posted the link so those with some time to analyse stuff in depth can have a look .

Enjoy your weekend ,

I agree Ammu123 for some reason we are kept lower than where this should be but it tends to rise erratically when least expected.

Since when is Barclays right though ? when they had other targets they got them all wrong

So again don't trust me , the analyst is James Hosie here are his success rate stats . Give me a break in bashing this using any excuse possible as some of us have all the tools you can dream of . Enq is not his most successful at 42% right vs wrong
Yet reading the BB one thinks this rating is everything that matters.

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/james-hosie?ref=ib

Wake up nearly $94 for Brent . FCF is staggering vs market cap

and we are matching that yet a leveraged play on oil ! Its insane to see Enq sub 35p today never mind 21p

Wow ! Big discrepancy here , market sleeping with cash brent at $93

Oil up , HBR down . Alright ! We have invented a new way of saying value creation is adverse for share price lol

I have slowly accumulated in the sector all of last year on the lows and played some. Waiting for the 5 year highs to come back which at current brent and gas prices I think they will plus dividends

For HBR in fact its even more mind boggling if I do HBR / UK gas . Mind moggles at the discrepancy here .

I really want that Tolmount gas project to be pumping out free cash flow ASAP , yesterday even ! As gas prices alone are surreal

agree I responded with my view on the Enq bb

Exxon beat in earnings today could be the big turning point and eye opener .
In the UK once you chart Shareprice / Brent you see how we are at the lows or close eg for Shell , BP , HBR, Enquest etc . Should we just recover to a pre 2020 mean we are implying a doubling at least of share prices at current BRent prices .

You beat me to it . US Earnings in the sector are really good today , looked at EPS of Exxon

"Exxon Mobil (XOM) on Tuesday reported adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share in Q4 compared with $0.03 per share in the prior year."

And if you look at the chat it is flying over 6% as I type.
So a beat of that kind for Enquest should have a much bigger price impact given the small cap etc and 52 week highs get smacked in the following days post trading update. This goes for some other unloved stocks out in the UK oil sector, HBR one of them but more on the list .

Is this the turning point investors in US and UK needed ? I think so or at least that is my view

What chart are you looking at ?

HBR/UKOIL is at all time low . Whilst if you overlay and Compare vs UK Gas or Brent you will see that there is a huge discrepancy developed in past months . Same goes for the whole sector.

Personally once we break out of 440p and the old adage says ( the longer the base the higher in space ) we will target 1050p

At over $90 as type and Gas at 222.50p which is insane

We have the highest Btent prices since end of 2014 and the close to the lowest in share price

That is the mismatch we ae seeing . So with the next few quarters remaining in this Brent price range I'd expect earnings to cut the debt pile down quickly and stock to re-rate back the 40s at least. The longer Brent stays above $80 the higher the target .
I think daily price vagaries are just part of the random walk and day traders business. Sub $50 we may have some trouble but at $80 plus for a long period we should substantially see a re-rating of the assets as well as earnings .

Just have to let the operational updates confirm all this

Am long at 19.33 on this new leg so my view is biased and accept its just an opinion ,no advice intended

with a -0.3% on the cash price of Brent as I type and Enquest is down today ... let that sink in Enquest is falling with prices of Brent over $70 .... Especially given the all time lows on Enquest share price / Brent , mind you its across the industry as Shell or BP are similar as in the Euro Stoxx EXH1 Etf / But the good news is that its looking like its finding an end to this and may ( I stress may ) be the entry point of dreams . The divergence Brent vs share prices of oil stocks is now huge . At first set of quarter earnings Q4 21 and Q1 22 and expecting a lot of broker upgrades across the sector bar any calamity

for those that follow, EXH1 ( Stoxx OIl and Gas ETF) showing a possible bullish reversal if confirmed tomorrow .

Earlier today I was chatting with a mate about how Brent was down yet the curve was giving strong signs of backwardation

I thought the afternoon would turn positive and so far it has. I repeat my post from yesterday bonds look healthy and close to all time highs.

because your are asking for this curve to revert
https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5166945

The reality is that we'll be more desperate for oil and gas and Brent will blast over $100 in no time Gas I dare not think giving the bill i have just seen . We could run the risk of having to use coal again . Look at the sky high Gas prices.

That alone is making selling stocks like Enq silly ! Hence the bond price at all time highs .Even more silly is firms skewed more towards gas production .

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

We are at peak st u pid ity > Bonds high and the free cash flow firm sees its market cap tank... go figure

Gas is up 17% today and we see firms not in the Ukraine but the North Sea , see share prices tank ! you got to be kidding me

X production has a breakeven , if the underlying is higher or flying you make a profit . Not according to the herd. Which is what for years I have said . Fundamentals are just not relevant at the moment . in the end price dominates , people look at a chart . Pros or retail . Nobody fights a chart. At least not for now .

Sad but true

No way near contango Romaron lets not get really crazy lol ! (meant in an affectionate way )

This rout is all to do with the major geo politics and nothing can explain the market cap sharp drops vs free cash flows .

Nothing else but contagion from other factors. Nasdaq itself is down nearly 15% year to date. But at this moment whether its ENquest , HBR or the rest of the oil co's they are all making money and lots too.

Pure panic and the need to steady the ship with good trading updates .

Why doesn't the CEO simply say he sees no reason for the 20% plus drop at these oil prices as operations are all good as is fcf creation ? Too simple , as geo politics . Russia / Ukraine need to tone it down a little , press too

I agree Romaron , FCF is bigger than MC and its not making sense other than panic across all sectors.

Its just contagion which should have affected Uk oil stocks a lot less but we live in a world of herds and sheep.

These chaps across the sector were happy to hedge in the low $60s and get upgraded Moodys ratings .. yet at 86% a barrel we crash ... lol

The panic is all in the equity side .. panic at over $86 , can't even believe am typing this

Hi Surfit
So what if the trades are automated AT ? I trade via IB as trade professionally and to me that doesn't seem to mean anything
I place trade at LTM or STP LMT that would translate to AT but really it isn't and just like most trades in size we pass orders that way not at market like many retail .

The fact remains when something falls the herd goes with it , likewise the other way round. When it goes into hyperbole
Look at price action only is the message. As fundamentals are far detached. Enq dropped over 20% in 3 days What has that do with fundamentals ? Brent barely moved and Gas is up . Herd mentality at its best

At the moment price action is all sell as people panic due to wars or covid or whatever the conspiracy theory you read on these bbs .

5 year highs in Brent , super highs in Gas and price and the lows. It makes sense only in light of traders following the herd . pro or retail .

Its all about price. Till we see a trading update which should restore sanity . The board can only respond that way .

Price action detached from fundamentals much like in a greedy bubble here we are seeing the panic selling. Fundamentals do not warrant this price but as price falls traders sell as that is the price action as I have been saying for years TA is king . Price phycology. If ever there was any proof today is a case in point given that fundamental brokers are all targeting HBR between 550 and 650. Brent in the $80s and three times gas prices vs last year using same period as now.

Imagine their finance office was happy to hedge part of their oil revenues at $61 which would have meant a business plan showing healthy revenues and value creation signed off by the C -suite . So the fact that price in the $80s moves down 0.2% and price drops 5% or moves up 0.2% and the price still moves down is showing no correlation to BRent whatsoever, yet if Brent fell further to $80 we'd see correlation to the down side. This all tells me this is panic selling . Fear of missing out on a lower price . The usual exuberance of the irrational . As I see no correlation to the 2 main prices we look at Gas and OIl I can only conclude that many of you are just following the herd and panicking . Price action wins again .