Member Info for onedb

Seasonal

Am happy as price is so low and transfer was at 454.56 , on the bb comp we did for last week I had 560 so this is 100p cheaper and couldn't be any happier .
Game is to buy low and sell high after all ...

Article shows that oil firms are not committing to capex and growth for now , and who would blame them. ? They are not stupid . Years of capex on growth projects that take years to yield and a volatile delta have made oil bosses more cautious

Politicians love rhetoric and blaming the profit makers in a particular period whilst forgetting or rather cunningly diverting their political failures to whoever has some money and blame them for their(the politicians) political incompetence and planning ie a rush to abandon fossil fuels that has been awfully planned and rushed.

Seems to me that if I take £100m off HBR or whatever the figure, I will be taking money off any growth/capex budget. Hence prolonging higher oil prices. Frankly speaking the anti oil environment would have me cautious in spending on long term big projects. I'd stick to short term returns on easier fields if they still exist. Trouble is those fields won't yield the overall oil demand that is necessary.
Taxation is always a value destruction process, only fools don't get this and only fools mostly suffer the consequences . A rich person can afford tough times after all and if anything has the skill set to recover, better education, better resources to draw from, usually works harder too. Fools watch tv, spout rhetoric, read tabloids, and we all know the type

They should be reducing the levy on fuel if this was a true Tory government and not increase tax on businesses . Pump prices are mostly tax .

Imagine the options we have today when voting , left wing(Tory) or extreme left wing(Labour) , or radical lunatics( Lib Dems and Greens)
Wow what a great selection. Most MPs wouldn't be working in a high end multi national on pure skill set. They barely have any other than for political roles like Clegg at Facebook(Meta)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Drillers-Cautious-Despite-Record-Earnings.html.

I did ask II to re-invest the amount yet that hasn't happened yet. I wonder how many brokers are under the same instruction and those who chose to re-invest it haven't seen it converted to shares yet. MInd you II ( Interactive Investors ) is really poor , terrible customer service , my bigger account has this all sorted already.

rule for decreasing share value ! I didn't attend that class at business school . Wow ! each month this year we have decreased debt by $200m yet price has crashed from an already pathetic level . I am so angry as I watch this as a firm is losing market valuation whilst increasing value in real terms . real money !! I hate the herds totally do

Same here my divi was paid this morning but not re-invested though II told me it takes 2 days . Weird .

IB did it automatically

Am not sure my sanity can take this ! About $200m in free cash flow a month and we are priced where we are today .
is my screen hacked and am hallucinating ?

We are seeing 110$ for Brent which is 10$ above the average needed , production up , around $200m of FCF a month targeting zero debt by 2023 , not sure if am going mad and if all the brokers lost it too ?

let this sink in we are trading at 22.5p old money . Madness .

Will Labour then compensate for the years of oil company losses too ? Surely they can't be this thick ? Carried forward losses are there for a reason. Lack of investments are the only consequences to this idiotic proposal.

Luckily it won't pass but the simple fact is that they don't understand basic economics . Nor gender for that matter. Seems though that if they have it their way it will be massively detrimental to the country and a classic policy of envy which will back fire in higher costs for all. Just when we don't need it.

hydraides,

There are only so many stocks that need to be transferred. its a finite issue .
Hence the issue is temporary and the fact that 200m a month is being shaved off debt is epic and the real focus .
Warren Buffet when long hugely on Occidental and Chevron ( check the 13f filings for q1 2022 ) , Jim Simmons went long back in autumn 21 Exxon. To me its significant given the fact that commodities are not the usual 'moat's he likes to have surrounding his investments as oil companies are now not savagely going out spending on growth only, but finally looking after their share holders, a quality he likes in all his books.

Lets not forget , Year end debt free at this rate and increasing divi .

Obviously am more of a quant/tech guy but do look at Value investing gurus and learnt their rules etc

I get the feeling that this extension down to 450s hit a perfect 2.0 retrace the previous swing , should this be the end of it and we climb up again the extension up to 2.618 fib gives a level close to many broker targets at 640p .

Personally think that if Chinese news on covid restricitions ( news rallying Hong Kong today ) are relaxed that we'll see an improving commodity run again . Not that we really need , our prices are great at the moment

As I said previously if they can keep the price low till my divis are converted to stock then am selfishly happy hhaha .

My view is wrong if we go back sub breakout at 440. I don't see that happening but if it did then my views will have to change

DYOR , my own views , I hold HBR .( last buy posted here at 461ish ) my views are not advice .

Note I had 560 for today and got that TOTALLY WRONG .

Doubt most are even paying attention judging by the very poor share price.
Nearly 16% up on gas and oil in the 100s and we can't rally after a great trading update.

Madness. I thought my 461 buy (addition) was great yesterday looking to more than double it too

Hi Rookie,

I read your comment vs SQZ. I think that today's price is the swing low (61.8 fib) of the move so maybe if am right that will cheer you as it should swing back up tomorrow all things being equal with Brent etc

A great RNS almost 5% up on Brent . new project adding production up , I bet brokers will increase their estimates too yet

Yet HBR struggling to go above 2% . Thanks for confusing the hell out of me

I added today at 461 and please keep it low till the divis arrive as they are automatically re-invested .
I would attract a lot of laughter if I said that my target here is way higher than current price , so given current price I will sit and wait it out

Added just a few seconds ago at 461.96 ! What a gift , in my view . Thank you

On the basis of current year to date debt repayment it would seem that Christmas time is when we go back to no debt Bit of an impressive result given 2023 was already great result and a miracle

As always DYOR and good luck

I had 560 on the Friday close game we played over the weekend ! Guess we jinked it.

Very disappointing given the disproportionate fall vs Brent and peers , and also vs Brent year to date average and recent levels reached on lower Brent eg 102.5 on April 25th yet 486 on HBR . So with a much lower Brent ( another $5 lower we ended up 13p higher than today .

Some over reactions i just don't get especially when nothing changed structurally to free cash flow generation .
What really annoys me is the misconception on the way down so if 50-50 is unhedged vs hedged the price reacts with high beta on a down day of say Brent or Gas yet on the way up it doesn't

This isn't really explainable given the proportions of hedged vs unhedged. A down day on Brent does not impact us as a totally unhedged firm . Not rocket science but yet sellers sold .

Why does the reaction have to be so big given Brent at 110 ? After all the year to date average brent price is on the rise and Enq is making a load of cash at these prices. I never get why from 113 to 110 would justify a sell by anyone . We don't go up in parallel as that is not how it works but it goes up if every day FCF is rising as it is.

£6.35 Giving The Lowdown
£6.00 NS
£5.55 BH
£6.35 Giving The lowdown
£6.00 NSS

£5.60 Onedb1
£5.55 BH
£5.43 kign
£5.35 patrm
£5.30 Emerald
£5.25 Dartman

560 for me please

Cash at 110.5 as I type futures moving higher to 109.7 . I felt like 100 YTD average was fantastic news as it delivers the headlined debt to zero forecast by 2023 but I wonder if the average goes higher what impact would that have ie early 23 ? Christmas 22 ? .

Take a look at Serica’s increasing divis over the year and as I pointed out P/E ratio . Hbr sub 1200 will deliver great returns but I suspect that at 1200 with these energy prices it could double that too .
DYOR no advice intended .

My divis are being reinvested so keep price down for now please

wohhoooo ! We pretty much got there now

Got that calc right about 10 days ago.

Now this is great news as it solidifies our debt zeroing forecast . Plus Brent as I type is at $107
Another 7 months like this and we are in a great financial position .

Look at Serica's (I hold by the way so not trying to belittle it ) but the PE ratio there is closer to BPs . Harbour's forward P/E will give a very juicy price target if we get to zero debt too.

By the way not sure what many will do but I have already selected for my divis to be reinvested. At current price and for the yield given I'd rather see it re-invested.

usual DYOR no advice given nor intended .