Member Info for onedb

Thanks gents for the responses.

Sadly price does not reflect what we believe value is here and for now all our bullishness is mostly wrong. I sit and wait as I am aware of the fundamentals of both oil which I have followed for over 20 years and this stock which I follow the sector for years too. If I were the CEO here I'd be looking at diversifying part of the portfolio away from the North Sea , It seems obvious to me our government leaders are pandering to populism rather than smart economics , drifting away from its conservative dogma in business matters. Spineless and confused . I would have rather paid 400 quid to someone in need than being stopped out of Serica and Enquest ( I kept Harbour ) And my much reduced capital gains tax seems like a silly thing for Sunak to have achieved. I trade in good size and a big chunk of unrealised profits have been destroyed at least for now. The new tax has certainly not worked on balance for the government vs me and I guess vs 1000s of other shareholders. But more importantly it does nothing to reduce price of oil or gas NOTHING , in fact it will add to the cost as our own firms as we have seen from Enquest's new plans will diversify away from the North Sea

Jobs , capital gains, loss of local energy producers , local investments gone , part independence gone , etc all will go for the sake of populism and will have solved nothing .

Despite all this I still believe Harbour's share price is worth at least double today's if not way higher even with the tax. Factually the hedged production will soon leave place to much higher hedges and debt is falling regardless and I still calculated 2023 as debt free in spite of higher taxes (which by the way does not mean we will pay a flat 65% in tax as I read some posted ) It will mean that with deductions etc our taxes are higher . But Brent is higher too and Setp Gas prices are higher too at 212 and Dec at 241 . So I took this tax increase as the same as saying debt zero equals brent average at 105 and 210 for gas , and we are basically there .

Share price is now worth a staggering 31.5% from the year highs that were lower than highs reached with oil much lower and lower production . Am lost for words . Even with taxation the firm is making a lot of money and doesn't deserve this valuation but it falls on deaf ears as doesn't seem to matter how much money they make . No grounds here left for valuation as sentiment is just ridiculously low .
Am down 45p plus the small amount of shares re-invested at 461 following the divi .
Its a farce to see this having paid back so much debt yet lost value by as much . 18.5p in old money for what ?

2 different sized firms (I trade both ) Harbour a multiple of Serica production wise but with debt whilst Serica, cash rich and no debt but much smaller production . I would compare the tax expected vs production and cash flow generated

RSI is deeply over sold . We are just under the 200ma , reconquering it would be a big plus .

Seems to me that with high oil we make more profits but more tax(more profits is not a bad thing ) and with lowering oil we get to pay less tax, In a way the price of Enquest should be close to the bottom now and to me reached support on the chart . Lets see , any strength from here could be a buying level , a drop from today's lows though would negate that view

The village **** aka Sunak, impact with his taxation is to make oil even more expensive.

The reality is that firms won't commit to new projects due to reduced profitability. I can see Brent going to $150 ! Rishi will soon tax the air you breathe ! He has created an even bigger problem down the line and taken away some energy independence. As it will become cheaper to develop fields away from the UK . Taking jobs away and energy control

I thought Dianne Abbott had no competition in parliament , NO . I was wrong . Whatever side you vote you generally get total incompetents . Sorry but that is how I see it. They wouldn't last in the private sector if it wasn't for their connections.

I did't even vote in the last elections I was already angry , and noted the very low turnouts ( which media never mentions) Triumphantly proclaiming whatever party winning or losing councillors like most people even care > Strikes me as dishonest though not to mention that the real winner was apathy . As I think most normal people would recognise we have a poor opposition and government . Lose lose here /

Am livid today

MRC
If Jefferies is correct then this is a massive over reaction as the sums are still tiny .Nevertheless Sunak is a total ****

I hope oil goes higher and higher . The idiot has cost me more than oil price increases. Incompetence to the max sending a message to other sectors that they too could be taxed . Home owners who saw their homes increase. Supermarkets selling more expensive food , where does a windfall tax end ? It sets a horrible precedent . I think that the clown didn't do his sums well. Capital gains alone from the big price rises would have brought a lot of money . Now they won't Still I think this will eventually get back in the 30s

Am fuming but not too sure Enquest will get impacted as much as the headline figure, due to how it will get derived.

I do know that oil will go through the roof as a result of global under investments. Look at the crazily high refinery rates in the US this week They are scraping the barrel.

I wonder how this government thinks it will win anything given its just alienated its own electorate. Bizarre to me .

For Enquest I remain bullish as the intended taxation will see a lot of detractions and won't make north sea oil firms invest here as the incentive is minimal Silly government on all counts

Obsolete ,

Don't look at the July/August contracts , look at September which is when demands comes back up and that is at 209p which is super high and in line with delivering the debt target which is an immense achievement in such short time.

Also historically July/August prices are super high this year and at the highest historically , Its does not get any better than this. Its insane to see the misalignment when data is so freely available

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253320

So for those out there
Brent YTD $101.55 vs $100 average for year needed to hit target
Nat Gas 217p ytd vs 200p average for year needed to hit target

Not sure what one would want more, actually I have one more thing

Iranian oil exports could be set to fall, rather than rising as markets expect . US will be sanctioning the illegal exports

There we have it all bar 1 thing a rising share price

Well done RFC , I didn't see that coming to be honest , well done indeed

All making sense now... new economic theory invented, the more value is created the less the asset is worth .

Must be a new gen economics theory ! Sell appreciating firms . Noted for next time

jeff,
Exactly , the funny thing is they were lower during the 2 big wars.. let that sink in .
Government becomes bigger and bigger and it never solves anything as it needs to keep on creating a reason to exist.
I detest them all . You know what's funny ? in the last council elections I don't know anyone that voted , I then checked turnout , the biggest winner was Party Apathy . People are fed up with sub par service and being taxed for anything . Especially those who pay taxes ( Also its a minority around 10% that pays most of it anyways. ) Its shocking . What are the other 90% doing ? Not much

Auson good point you make on the windfall tax.

If production goes up too , adding to profits, that shouldn't be seen as profiteering from the situation but actual good business management and as you point out the hedged portion of the profits should not be included in the calculation too. Very good point that am sure CEOs etc will be fighting over with and the government may not be able to implement without a detailed view of the hedged production vs unhedged.
Am wondering if this get a legal challenge as the government would have to accurately pin point the part of production minus a lot of a variables that has actually benefited.

Probably costs them more in auditing these figures and arguing that the money they think they are going to get. Its a classic shambles

Least of our worries as price has fallen hugely and the tax idea has not affected other stocks as much if at all .

You do realise that if you tax the bank or whoever that money loss to the banks will be passed onto the consumer ?

There should be no windfall tax on any firm - period !

Your pensions are all aligned to the performance of markets. A tax will be detrimental to them Its like a turkey voting for Christmas ! Then we hear people complaining about pensions etc and under performance or under funding Well there are mad people out there that believe that you can tax a productive asset that is paying for your pension and still retain the same pension performance ! good luck with that alchemy

I probably need to go live elsewhere as nothing seems to cheer me up, least of all this atmosphere of envy and taxation.

Another interesting stat :

March 21 , Brent at 70% HBR 600s
May 22 Brent 113$ and great year to date average with $1bn less in debt HBR in the low 400s

there is nothing here that suggests fundamentals are playing any part in this

Hi Pearl ,

I get what you are saying but am fervently anti tax. Its a system for which you take away from productive systems to systems that will squander it. We have seen the rise and rise of taxation with promises to sort things out . Has that ever happened ? They can tax everyone at 99% and it still won't change a thing . They will squander it all.

I believe in minimum tax and find that if a firm as carried losses this kind of taxation is preposterous on so many levels.
It won't incentivise growth in other projects, green ones or not, and will in fact make it detrimental to run a business.

One thing is for sure they have lost me a voter for good. (Which won't mean I will vote for the other misfits but simply refuse to vote to have inept governments one after another . )

So this idea that a tax is hurting HBR is easily debunked as BB hysteria .

BP is off 2.73% of its years high
Shell is of 2.51%
Enq 6.48%

Wait for it ... HBR is down just over 20%

So what happens here ? HBR is seen as paying it all ? Of course not but pricing would suggest that

Brent is at 113$
Sept 2022 Gas = 210

Its clear am not looking at summer contracts for Gas

This gives debt free by Christmas . over $200m a month

Why is paranoia hitting this share price ? Its clear that its price action and not fundamentals A big case for TA being superior to fundamentals for trading. Based on what we are seeing the argument of TA > Fundamental analysis is clearly won

Pearls where do you stop ? Windfall tax on anyone that makes a profit ? I mean has taxation ever worked ? surely it hasn't given debt levels increase as wastage and the zillions spent of rubbish .

We had lower taxation during the wars ! Let that sink in . Tax is inefficient and certainly never sorts the issue out

Soder , I bet most people don’t look at the forward curve . We have reduced debt by $1bn end of May yet we nearly lost that value in market cap . It’s surreal to say the least .
Am beyond incredulous at current share price