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This is the issue I highlighted the other day , "HBR and other oilers " Well HBR is nearly more GAS than Oil . And was happy at 49p hedges at one point.

Gas considerations and price seem to matter for nothing. Let the 25th of August be revenge day ! lol

Had Brent gone up 11% in a day HBR would be retesting 500p So what is going on ?

Why are we flat of there about on the day ? Its beyond me now . I just have to cover that entry on the screen lol till it wakes me up as Gas is now at levels that alone under pin the value of HBR at the moment and even then I have my doubts as it should be more

up 7.31% and we have even just over 50/50 of oil to gas ratio in gas production . With latest project unhedged it seems.

I really want to see the latest financials .

But looking at volume by price , if we get a weekly close above 385 we may be seeing the big distribution in this area 300-385 finally over and relenting , there isn't a lot of resistance above that (use a market profile to confirm ) . So watch out for price action on a week close above this upper area I mention .

High levels of stock on loan in May 9.24 June 9.33% have seen a July reduction to 8.48% as Auson was first to point out and might just be coinciding with the area of congestion so if August data shows a further decline then the private equity shenanigans may be reducing . Hope so

To discuss Gas prices is futile as they are so high its obvious that there are some who are distributing enough to keep price low . But can't last forever . Looking forward to the August update to add more clarity

( Please DYOR and above is all my opinion no advice ) Am long here and averaged 413 (maybe a tad lower as I re-invested the divis )

I agree Lytham, its what am looking at . I trade and am generally bullish ENQ , Just trying to gain that extra penny or 2 . Its not me disliking the bull case whatsoever over the long run. As we know things are never linear. Plus its more for the traders than the investors

So bought the physicals at 22.33 and got sadly stopped at 27.2 am only left with spreads now / Damn I wanted more but for now there is some weird retrace

Hi Kraken what troubles me is the rhetoric you hear about this windfall tax. Ie that Oil firms make too much etc etc . People just read a headline and then jump on a populist bandwagon . Most of the times they forget to quote debt levels, years of share under performance, they mistake profits for revenues and totally don't get that the industry is already taxed more that others wit the extra tax already a feature of oil firms. Another thing that annoys me is that somehow they think shareholders are making to much money ! Bloody hell ! If it wasn't for my trading and stuck to buy and hold this would have made me nothing . Last but not least our North sea is a geopolitical asset that protects us (in part ) against energy supply issues . As we have seen Germany had virtually none and they are paying a heavy price for that. Yet we see people call for oil firms to pay more tax... blind people in my view . They will hurt the industry, jobs, energy investments , energy independence and move it all out of the UK .

Any rambles aside 29 is the key level that needs to be broken

Got to say that nobody seems to care about gas prices and focuses way too much on oil . I read the bb the other day and a poster wrote "HBR produces 200k of oil" . I cringed as what happened to the gas lol .
Its 215 boepd ! Barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1 22 as anyone who spent 2 seconds reading the presentations and following .

We have around 50% in both gas and oil production hedged , and the rest at various prices that are sold in the market
One thing am shocked at is that Tolmount alone is producing a mountain of cash at the moment and gets little attention

Gas today is 378p ! Let that sink in as its staggering and Tolmount is totally unhedged

Yet if oil is like 0.3% down on any day HBR falls too. Got to really be a classic of the markets to see the unreasonable happening .

Staying patient but can't wait for the update this month

thank you Taverham . As you may know am more of a price action than fundamentals , so thanks for the help

On TA, 29 as I wrote a while back is the key area where we see most volume traded in the past year and key resistance that needs to clear , I wrote that 26 was one then 29 the more important one. Breach that and the next level up is 35-37 (obviously not in 1 day and not linear)

Taking out all those who are selling at 28.5 to 29.5 will be a major result and thereafter mid to high 30s are next supply zone . Am really keen to see that too destroyed as the target then lifts much more . One step at the time.

We just need the current supply to be mopped up. May take its time but the more its tested the more the odds grow it will get taken out .

DYOR as always

Is the FCF net after this " At the end of June, $115 million remained outstanding on the Group's senior secured debt facility ('RBL') following accelerated repayments totalling $300 million in the six months to end June 2022" ie it would have been 300m more if not having to repay the senior debt ? given that only 115 are left , all things being equal by H2 that will have disappeared and will have paid down 115 vs 300 in H1 giving H2 more FCF ( if Brent averages achieved are the same obviously )

25th of August

Wouldn't be surprised. the rental side of the business and in fact rentals in London in general will do well regardless,
Its a good if not great income stream and if they more or less keep up with inflation as they normally do then I don't see an issue. London is still very very tight in terms of rentals. Very competitive to find a good place to rent

The link is on investing dot com

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/commodities-
Interesting times as today I read that Germany was reducing its EV subsidies and Europe will be importing even more coal from Kazakistan .

SPR release of 20m in the US (funny enough these releases end at the Midterms ) caused a wobble today as Enq hit resistance on the 100ma .
Think many countries have thought their energy policy and geopolitical risk very poorly .
Despite the daily vagaries of oil price one thing is very bullish , the timestamp spreads , backwardation is strong .
For Enquest there were and are supply areas at 26, and around 29 , clear those and those who followed my entry posted on the 8th of July will have noticed a view of mine of target a few days later

So far so good

news/oil-inventories-fall-by-40m-barrels-last-week-api-2697821

She would have to get clearance from compliance and adhere to the rules on related parties i believe, and thresholds that require notifications ie if its 100 shares I doubt. I don't work in compliance though am sure her head of compliance will have advised her on what she can do. Would be silly not to especially given her position .

But indeed HBR sells sea water so share price is uncorrelated to gas , how silly of me ...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/NGLNMc1/

Do note that Forties is bid well over cash price and it appears to me that paper oil ie the futures we all look at vs Forties real delivery prices and the physical market are disconnected. I think oil has been pushed down if am correct artificially

Forties crude, one of the grades underpinning Brent futures, was bid at a record high premium to the benchmark of plus $5.35 a barrel on Wednesday. As we can all track global inventories are low and no suggestion this will change , may get worse no matter what Biden thinks he will achieve in Saudi

given that firms that have bonds have to appease both the bondholders and the ratings agency we know that 2023 has hedged production . Its pretty daft to say Enq has hedged f all as it shows a lack of understanding of the way a business which has bonds works.
For 2023, Enquest has already hedged a total of 3.5 MMbbls with an average floor price of c.$57/bbl and an average ceiling of c.$77/bbl.
Am sure that on the next update we will get further guidance.

On the odds of oil price crashing to $50 I would say they are pretty slim given demand and supply . We need a severe recession for that to happen or another Covid global lockdown , I really hope that does not happen.

Oxygen , its interesting as with some tools like tip ranking etc we can actually see their track record. Not many are good in fact its a minority as you say

hi Stumpy I think it was Barc at 23 . Jefferies at 33 and JPM 42 indeed

Should be noted I will stick my neck out as done some work on a model that at least in back test does well . so lets go with my first 3 months target. of circa 35 which is not my upper or lower targets but within confidence bands.

Lets see in 3 months time Oct 22