Member Info for onedb

An extract that was of interest to here below . That $75 for the remainder of the year and next is somewhat fantasy island . I think the below numbers are very attainable though quite rightly there are always all sorts of factors that can mess things up . BUt for now at least in 22 am sure the goals below will be beaten

"RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's action balances the expected improvement in EnQuest's liquidity position upon successful execution of the planned refinancing transaction along with financial metrics progressively strengthening over the next 12-18 months under Moody's base case scenario. At the same time, the rating action also reflects the uncertainty related to the refinancing because of challenging conditions of the debt capital markets. Should the refinancing not be successful, EnQuest will face debt maturities of around $0.9 billion due in a year's time.

Moody's base case scenario assumes stable production at around 48 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, average oil prices of $75/bbl for the remainder of 2022 and for 2023 and unit OpEx of $20-$22/boe. Accordingly, EnQuest should generate Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of $800 million annually in 2022 and 2023, as well as Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $300 million and $200 million respectively despite rising cash outflows for abandonment costs, capex and tax payments related to the recently-introduced Energy Profits Levy. Assuming the senior unsecured notes are fully and timely refinanced and that positive FCF generation is primarily deployed towards progressive reimbursement of pro-forma RBL drawings, Moody's projects key credit metrics to improve to levels commensurate with a potential rating upgrade, including gross debt to EBITDA declining to 2.4x by year-end 2022 and remaining within a 1.75x – 2.0x range in the medium term compared to 3.4x as at year-end 2021. Conversely, if EnQuest does not fully refinance its outstanding senior unsecured notes then EnQuest's liquidity position would become increasingly challenging because FCF generation and available cash balances under Moody's base case scenario would not be sufficient to redeem the retail and high-yield bonds due October 2023 at maturity. "

Just to say he had a sell rating in July on the 15 at 21.5 . I went long a week earlier or so and share moved up to 29.5 in 15 days l.... Just saying as I track what these analysts say and have a record of the calls

Don't believe me check for yourself .

Chap needs some TA classes he trades nearly as well as that troll of mine smartpants .. lol lol lol

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/james-hosie?ref=ib

January24.

You are right the more we test it the more the odds its breached , I was only implying that around 35-37 is first target not my end goal . The first resistance is there. I concur that above there is very little volume till 47 and even thereafter so to me its all good. But we know we have to breach 37 before we can see the real breakout .

the fundamentals chaps could be pointing out that a miserable PE sends us in multiples of today's price

Am surprised we are not marching on faster but sense that this 37 level is getting closer I had the signal in July ( its a pure AI algo that tells me the level it will reach if and when 22p was reached plus a few variables ) .

Right now look at MAs or momentum or the wedge formed . All bullish

Look at Brent divided by Enquest that ratio appears to me as wanting to fall down which is perfect for us . Even more so as Brent is rising and already way higher than what we really need. Currently the ratio is 3.16 UKOIL/ENQ and I see it falling which is good .

But its all in my view as always .

Back in July I entered at 22 as posted and had my target of 35-37p to be reached end of Sept early October, am probably 1 week or 2 wrong but still feel the target is on its way . Wasn't a bad view but on a retrace I got stopped at 27 something as posted . I then rebought at 29.5ish Timing might not have been exact as it seldom is but am confident on target .
We have lots of noise from SPR and NFP tomorrow , OPEC did its cut etc . But all TA tells me Enq is bullish short and intermediate terms

So no change from my old view. My way of trading suggests target is in the interim 35-37

No advice intended just my view.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Are-About-To-Reverse-Course.html

Smartpants not sure why the attack given you are mug but am still stuck as per last post at 29.55 .

28 posts most of them mention me . How many accounts do you open and close in a year that is the question dear Stan ! you have to find a good doc and look for help . On advfn we even proposed a crowdfund to help you with your deranged issues.

People here know when I trade as I post them as and when I have traded . Good and bad . Don't have to follow if you don't want to , it makes no difference to me, yet you do have a disorder and you need help .

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-rises-opec-considering-substantial-production-cut

I was thinking the same. Not like GAS is cheap with Nov futures at 385p not sure why anyone would sell at record prices when they are happy to hedge at 60p . boh ! Seems like madness to me . But a gift I take happily . My divis will be re-invested so low price is cool with me . Think some are not looking at Gas curve . Good for me bad for them

Hey Stumpy I do . Always pleasant :-) Though I have my temper too lol . But overall speaking I hope am not in the bad books

Well am sorry I got this one wrong in July 22 to 37 did not happen ( 4 days for a takeover ? lol ) , best we got was close to 33. I'll be on the receiving end of the rotten tomatoes.

I have a question for those who may have read the details. What is the normal price for oil that the government mentioned as leading to the end of the tax surcharge ? As its clear to me that Oil prices are now well within 2 standard deviations from the mean . Or does the government dispute that ? I mean maths is maths . I'd understand the spike we had in March but other than that did we really go so far from the mean to justify a surcharge ? well the answer can be seen by anyone , get your trading view out and look at 2 standard deviations from the mean ( use the 200ma ) We are well within the 2 sigma band .

Sunak was so wrong it astounds me that he ever worked in his position . Can't dispute basic maths am afraid.

Thank you Scoobydriver, the trouble is that facts today are somehow disregarded . Realistically I thought to leave the UK if Corbyn had won, finding his proposed 50% tax or hatred towards those who create value repugnant. When Hollande did the same in France all the professional classes earning a good wage moved to London , hence why so many reside here.
Tabloids though sell a lie , whether left or right leaning, or perceived leanings , they sell populism to an ill informed readership . Without someone who can afford a yacht to put it plainly you won't have dozens working in a dockyard and then the crew . Stifle the risk takers and you stifle progress. I even know what it meant to re-start from zero in life.

This hatred of the 1%of paye earners reminds me of the middle ages where we had religious dogma and anyone not part of it or thought of as a heretic would be burnt at the stake. Remember we are talking about the 1% in PAYE terms too . All too confusing by the masses and easy to make them believe 150k is a lot of money . Shame it won't pay the wages of League Two footballers. But that doesn't matter.

All this tax is stifling Enquest too. Cut it and make life as efficient as possible We will all benefit

Epiphany 150k is not quite the wealthy come on. In London that doesn't get you much of a life and least of all a wealthy life style and I earn a lot more and imagine if you have a family too ? . Equally important to know that the tax cut is for PAYE , any company director would be ill advised to pay themselves such salary .
IF 2k was taken off the lower tax brackets many would end up receiving rather than paying into the system.
The sad reality is that the vast majority in the UK contribute to very little. Its not me who says that but the IFS Institute for Financial Studies on who pays what in this country . The vast majority of this country is oblivious to the reality that
the top 0.1 per cent, a mere 50,000 individuals, pay at least 10 per cent of all income tax, so each pays at least 100 times more than the average. Why is that fair ? Do they use the NHS 100 times more ? Doubt it as they go private for all services The top 1 per cent pay a third of all income tax. Again this is 1% of tax payers who are very mobile and globally in demad . Imagine a footballer taxed at 0% where would he choose to play for equal gross wages ? There can be no doubt that if it weren’t for top 0.1 and 1% the rest of us( well not me) would be paying a lot more tax, or we’d have much less spent on our public services. That is plain maths . One can't argue an obvious fact like this despite tabloids doing it.

The IFS website should be made mandatory reading before attacking the tax cuts. To really understand who is paying what. AS trust me when I hear someone complaining they pay to much I respond by saying I pay more in tax than your gross earnings. I can always trade from another country like Switzerland or Dubai or set up offshore structures. All very easy .
What I hate about Labour is that they want us all equally poor and risk takers should not exist and if they do they should earn the same as a postman . Surely anyone with half a brain would realise that investing in a business that creates jobs requires risk taking and for that risk one requires a reward. Without risk takers we have no progress in society .
In my last business I had 40 employees between paye and contractors. Today I run a much smaller setup .
Plus lets face it taxes is my money spent by people with a fraction of my ability , I find it a complete farce to hand over asset allocation and distribution to abject clowns . My local authority just announced its spending millions on those without a home ( about 200 in the borough ) . Most of whom are imports coming in on rubber dinghies . Say no more .

One thing I'd like to point out is that in the 90s and above the 70s , price is more than enough to deliver great free cash flow . When we had the 120s plus etc, all it was going to achieve is possible demand destruction (with a temporary boost to cash flow) and slowing down the economy which was already coming at an end of its cycle. (possibly)

So current Brent price ( and we sell some oil at premium ) is awesome . So whilst price is not moving in the direction I ( we) want it , I feel that I have ample evidence that value is added everyday. I'd be more worried if I was long something bleeding money . Not the case here . Price is erratic so I will take advantage of any decent dip .

I had 35-37 by end of month so I need quite a bullish run now to achieve that lol

We all tend to do that when going shopping . Not sure why not with stocks .

Calls for manipulation or other infantile claims are just that , infantile frustration .

I hold at 29.5 and if gets cheaper I will consider adding . Put your money where your posts (mouth) are ( is)

Enquest traders on strike ? I know you don't want 35 - 37 by month end so as to throw tomatoes at me lol These good old dirty tricks :-)))))

Brent doing very well and no bad signs to tell me otherwise , spreads , inventories ( global ones ) a record low SPR ( remember the last build was on a big 7.5m SP realease ) Take that away ...

All good my way

Am looking at this strong Brent rally and think that our(Enquest) year highs won't be far off. I modelled 35-37 back in July and with a 3 months target. In my view it will get taken . The what next is tricky but it opens up another 10p as obvious on the chart. We have had no volume above 37 in years so it gets interesting to see how fast it can be reached. Classic JP Morgan with 47p target. I guess they have a technician there too.

But for now I hope my view and strategy is correct . 37ish this month. Throw rotten tomatoes when month is over if wrong. But I have had that view from original post in July. As well as the interim trade that is in the money .

Have a nice weekend.

We had a bearish engulfing then not confirmed and quiet day then the spike up .

I sense we will see the same . Hence my hold and only invalidated at below 26 as mentioned .

Sticking to my view . So on target to my end of month view is still on .

Well done Stumpy credit where it’s due . I just didn’t get this one

Stumpy HBR is also a 50-50 a gas play , ENq isn't so disagree with correlating the two . Gas despite the decrease today of around 15% is still trading at insane levels and a boepd which is a multiple of oil . So whether get the level you propose is in my mind not correlated to HBR but other factors .
So will politely disagree if I may

Kraken I think we will get there .
TA wise
In July I anticipated a 3 months time to get to that level, I think that we need to see support round about these low 29s , maybe a more or less flat day tomorrow and then a slow progression upwards like we saw March/April when we last had such a big bearish engulfing candle. Breaching 26 invalidates my view
Fundamentals
I keep look at earnings and quality of future earnings and ENQ is possibly the one with the lowest earnings multiple and moving towards a no debt in 2023. Serica is no debt and has PE of over 12 if not mistaken .
General
We see a few percentage points down across the sector today. Yet I don't see cheap oil coming , these $90s are super cash generative as we see Enq is happy to even hedge lower. Much healthier oil prices are good for all as the spikes to 130/140 cause inflation problems and force central banks into raising rates which we don't really want. A healthy outlook , no more 40$ but also no need for 120/140$ .