Member Info for onedb

Hi Stumpy , good to hear from you .

As you know I qualify a target ( here a relatively quick traders target ) but agree am here for much higher too

Given the mix of people reading , traders and investors I wanted to be as specific as possible.

Good to see you on the same trade then ! So far so good

Foxtons is moving in my view/opinion with a short term goal of 37/38p ( a trading one)

That recent low October was achieved way below 2 standard deviations from the mean and produced a great buy signal (RSI wise - divergence), helped indeed by the buy back news a bit later.

To me there is an easy 10 to 15% rise alone on the buy backs ( which is a trading target not an investor one as I want these back at 90)

Of note the 2y rates now back down to 3% and the 5y at just 3.3% .

Even mortgages could get a bit cheaper . Crazy given the mass hysteria of the BBC and media a while back. (they always seem to want to spin things badly and load their agenda in people's minds )

Am one of the few that believes rents will remain a great cash cow for Foxtons and rates if inflation is tamed will keep a healthy sales market . Ie no boom but health buying and selling . (With sensible loan to values ie not thrown at customers for nearly free) . As that caused the irresponsible speed of the real estate rise . I prefer slowly but steady

Can't see Foxtons below 40 in my view in coming weeks, lets see

I hold my pot and sub 40/50 I accumulate

Epiphany got it . I think I learnt something new today , thanks

Hi Epiphany hope all is well , guidance from HBR was 200p raised to 220p to be debt free. When the they give that guidance the reference points are the gas price link I gave.
As why we are down ? I reckon that PIs are fretting way to much and am factually surprised that we don't have fundamental posters pointing out the debt free targets and cash generation , with or without a slightly higher speculated WT.
Honestly find the low share price out of sync with the fundamentals .

The reality that value investors have taught me( am tech and quant by background and approach) is that they like to look at net profit margins . Now the platform I trade with suggests this is over 20%
Operating margins over 34%
What are we worried about here ? gas and oil will be the sticky part of inflation as well as wages I guess going forward , tonight and tomorrow we'll have inventories once again pointing another draw and drugged by the SPR . Which will disappear as will the effects of Russian bans start to impact this month.

I think the CEO has well received the message to invest away from our (if living in the UK) very self destructive and moronic tax regime . So with that in mine I suspect that the revenue component away from the UK will start to become priority .

How can we still be hovering the old 20p despite all the progress ? its wrong

proctor gas is up 7% so not sure where you get your gas down IF you are looking at US Natgas which which is completely irrelevant to us and the UK then that is wrong , yet another poster doing that though and I wonder how many are confusing such a basic thing . Anyways hope the below helps

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351155

Oil is barely under $100 why would a firm's market cap need to fall when above $60 its value adding ? in spite of the tax (at 75% the tax is actually taken away )

proctor the 7% gas you are looking at is the US Natgas contract which spiked due to the GFS maps showing cold air coming into north western america
FOr the UK we have the opposite and a mild outlook till mid Nov so UK Dec is trading at 274p high but -3.4% since Friday . Shouldn't really matter much as we know that in boepd its an insanely high price anyway

GroundHogDay1 ,

You need to look at Real Rates for Gold . Lower real rates good for gold, higher not good

Would be interesting if all of those like myself invested here with good size would share what seems to be the general consensus here (ie that the WT is detrimental to UK oil and gas industry and at odds with most other jurisdictions) to make Linda Cook know how we feel a bit more
Its detrimental from an ecological view too as we'll have to import energy from further away and replace our production with other production from jurisdictions which may have lower eco standards .
This will do nothing to calm Brent prices globally in fact I fear it will just make the problem worse.
The clown who singlehandedly passed the tax( Tory MPs voted against it) should really rethink the whole tax as he'll cause more damage med to long term.
As wokes normally love to boycott stuff with words we have a chance to boycott too and make our voices heard with hard cash . To me that has more power. Lobby Harbour to invest away from the UK . Those in government need to understand that pandering to the spoilt brats is one thing but annoying those who actually pay the bills is another .

from nearly reaching the mid 29s as Brent has gone way higher now and its 100.5$ So all the good post UK close is something not reflected in the Friday profit takers

THink some retail traders here panicked and sold out too early . The only way I will smile is if we gap up 1p on Monday at least passed 29.5. Or move up through volume resistance quick

Saw that KO only to rebound now back up over $100 ! Crazy

Doesn't look like happiness is achievable ! Brent up about 3,5% as I type retraced just a bit Enq up 1.87% What the heck is that ? Enq should have moved up 5% at least . Lost for words to see that 0.8p drop so easily

Folks don't worry the trend of horrible moods is staying . You can count on that sadly

We even have over $100 now. Wow .

Moody's rating was based on super conservative views

with me and Kraken in a good mood next week ? that will be a first haahhaah

30s here we come and another stab at 37p , then the fun begins as oil is not relenting

and I will be happy as think then its another shot at 37p . ( not the end target just the first one)

Come on ! 100$ Brent cash !! Everyday tax or not we are adding profits . Everyday ! Slower with the tax but still additional value nevertheless .

That level is what I have as resistance so if we close above it you may wish to review your exit .

NFP at 12.30 may have an impact on the overall market so lets see but I remain bullish oil and price action supports the lower 100s in my view . Tax or no tax Enquest is profitable every day at the moment , surpassing Moody's expected $75 average to year end and all of next., easily this year and I sense next year too.

Well given Foxtons has now a considerable rental business , sticky money I reckon, this 75bps increase will keep many in the rental space as buying will need a higher deposit. I reckon that it still makes sense to buy vs rent for loads of reasons but financially its good if you can get a big deposit. Yet many in the younger generation probably won't save due to lifestyle choices. So renting will be king for Foxton's business .

I have refurbished a 3 large bed flat in a nice mansion block ( totally new and to very high standard, German kitchen , Italian tiles and tops, high end wooden floors ), the mortgage on that is about 60% of the rent I could get in the market if not better ie 55% . Its insane . Rents in my area and across most of London will need a general wage increase to really make sense for many . I wouldn't rent this particular property I own as too high end but am in shock when I See the rental value of terrible 3 beds , of which usually one is good size and the other 2 are closets .

Foxtons should be making a lot of money despite the sales side not flying .

I agree closer to 60s ! WIth oil this good and looking good for the immediate future

UK government sabotaged its own profitable oil firms and destroys more in market cap that it will raise in taxes ! What a massive own goal . OIl flies and our assets are priced lower .

I mean you couldn't make this up . What do they study at university ? How to race to the bottom ? How incompetence gets you votes ? and I have always voted Tory , will never Labour but now will never vote period . Both sets are just not fit to run a bath and sadly that is no joke

Here you go January with the granularity

API

Crude -6.53mm (+267k exp) - biggest draw since June

Cushing +883k

Gasoline -2.64mm

Distillates +865k (-733k exp)

We just need to reduce UK exposure and invest abroad as clearly many don't realise the damage 65% tax does.

If I were Linda Cook I'd stick two fingers to the government and taxes and move HBR investments far away from here and into tax stable and friendly jurisdictions. The UK is not pro business when the likes of the BBC in its news section has a go at BP's profits and the commentary section is full of misguided comments on the oil sector and its profits

I mean HBR has had a lot of debt to recover , investment in future oil and gas fields cannot be recommended in the UK with the mob wanting to tax profitable firms without looking at the reality of long term debt. decommissioning and lots more .
With the mood we have today I'd be surprised if major oil firms will invest much in the future , thus resulting in lower replacement ratios and a future big problem with fast decreasing productions and demand still high till at least 2030 . Resulting in high oil costs as a result of this horrendous populism.

Populists will end up costing all of us as once UK firms decrease UK production has Shell has etc we will lose the windfall tax dreams as we'll have to import all from abroad . What an own goal , epic idiocy of following the ignorant masses.

Plus they won't learn

Markets look buoyant today. Fingers crossed we go back above the 30s.
By my calcs we should get a draw on inventories tomorrow despite the SPR , the more governments meddle the more they will make oil and gas expensive . They should have let demand and supply do their thing . They never learn .

Oil is moving up fast today !! Debt free Enquest coming up soon too .