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Yeah it will be a major blow .

I am biased as a libertarian but find it super strange that they have Oxford degrees yet never came across studies of the impact of a certain level of taxation and investments. I mean we have the IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) surely they can show empirical evidence .
The thing I hate the most is that out politicians are not really that qualified despite some business success for Hunt with the company they sold and Sunak with some of his financial background.
Truss and the previous chancellor's budget was sabotaged by the Bank of England useless pension fund issues and had it not been for the 400/500 squandered on Covid the budget would have boosted the UK big time

I estimate that we will be . So far the last 6 or 7 reports I have come super close so touch wood the streak continues don't want to break mine like Argentina did today lol

present a united front and cancelling investments as Shell is suggesting ( add BP , Harbour, Enquest, Serica ) from a UK perspective but foreign inward investment too , then all added up negates any tax big time as well as reduces taxable income . Blatant disaster
I think that when it gets a bit quieter the windfall tax will be review downwards . The government stands to look very silly here

Hi Rookie its a big statement worth £25bn ! Frankly speaking the tax will not be raising anything near what they wished for whilst have damaged , market caps , capital gains (also taxed more) , jobs , future investments and UK having no energy industry so having to import from further away adding to environmental issues and having no say over the countries from which we will import and their eco standards . Its lose lose and lose more all over . Even those eco glue warriors will understand that the further you import from the more CO2 you emit . Rocket science for too many that is the worrying thing . Too many want strawberries in winter and are probably eco warriors , yet no excess tax on Tesco for selling them . Oh boy I could rant all day lol

WTI now has gone positive ! To think someone sold when at -8% HBR all because of Brent down ... stick to moving averages and stop day trading the vagaries of oil oscillations

Looks like we won't have to imagine anything as its actually about to happen . Brent to go positive on the day

Would make the near 8% down look a bit silly indeed . 8% on a variable that at best is affecting HBR by a fourth roughly speaking ! Shocking sentiment at the moment not based on anything else

Denies . sorry for typo

not sure if true or not but Brent went from close to -6% on the day to 2.75% as I type , just shows that those selling today were selling on the vagaries of not even 1 day of Brent price action . Weak hands flushed. Makes me happy . Harbour says thanks as we can buy those shares back on the very cheap and hence improve the EPS nicely

The bit that really confuses me is the prospect of another inventory draw this Wednesday and no signs of a very expensive gas ( at least 3 or 4 times where it should be on average ) decrease. Colder air to also push into Europe early Dec . Certainly a lot colder in the UK

It baffles me we out paced Brent and all sentiment so down .

The reality is that Harbour down 6% with Brent down 5% is mathematically wrong

So for simplistic terms we are roughly hedged 50-50 on Brent and 50-50 on Gas .

SO each weight is approx 25% . Then why if Brent has a daily decrease of 5% do we decrease 6% when its real impact in much lower ?
Also the WT in this equation is irrelevant as its not a fixed tax but a percentage. If today we make a bit less money so will the taxable amount be lower .

Anyways who cares people do whatever they want so sell and move on

Remember that the 100m buybacks are improving the EPS ratio . The hedges in oil and great gas prices at the moment the other positive factor . I find it strange that when Brent rallies 5% the share doesn't budge much , the opposite it falls. Cant be both right as we know a lot of production is hedged anyways . So irrelevant daily swings yet as always we get impacted regardless

With Brent now in the 80s can it really be called excess profits ? I mean this is not the case for oil . Gas I understand . But not oil . As always we score own goals business wise . I never understood a government that penalises its own firms to the benefit of foreign ones but it seems to be the business model in the UK whether its Tory Labour or Labour. The two parties opposed to the regular citizen especially the tax payer . Imagine if this lot are bad the ones waiting to displace them will be even worse. Very depressing to be honest . Isn't Tesco showing excess profits ?

Great posts gentlemen . Exactly what I was estimating myself after trawling through the various available docs.
Londoner7 , Banburyboy , L3Trader , etc thanks for the posts .

Factor in that buybacks enhance EPS and make those earnings look good even with that horrible attempt at sabotaging HBR. The other bit I like is that investments will at least for me all be focused away from the NS
No matter how I look at it a tax regime worthy of a banana republic is not worth the effort of planning and partly in planning hedges becomes more complex , its hard enough for me and my portfolio in various currencies.

I equally sense that overall the two opposition parties' estimates of tax revenue over the next 5 years will be missed by quite a margin .

Would be really good ! On top of that away from the filthy 2 labour parties we have in this country

on my to do list as I was thinking the same 3dartfinish . Initially I thought it was $70 the threshold but I have to look for the detail , if anyone has the precise rules it will be helpful

Wouldn't mind if they also started a share buy back process much like Harbour . Our EPS will be looking even better

Also don't forget that for Enquest we still don't get any windfall tax on our Malaysian production . The overall impact is hugely unfair but not as high as the shareprice or some on the bb believe.

Operations update out soon and remember our CEO owns more shares than any of us

Well it looks like the usual drama but when you take a look in detail the firm is profitable and adding value daily . At these prices if you are not going to like them then you never will . But to me they are trading at or below EPS , with still good margins despite the whole tax situation
Only bit that hurts me is when I hear Lib Lab and SNP chaps saying this all fair as BP and SHell make billions ! Yet they seem to be oblivious to the fact that our UK firms are the ones seeing investors penalised . They have so much venom in their words and hatred yet are misguided immensely .
Like having a headache and using a hammer to fix it . Seems quite stupid to me.
Anyways I am very bullish oil and won't fall for the drama

I got my numbers wrong , its not 11,125 more but 1.25 its 5% on 25k not 45% , what a silly error.

Romaron this is the bit I wanted to hear and understand

"I think we may have up to 4 years (2023-2026 inc) of tax at 35%. Then our tax losses run out. We then start paying 75% which if we get it right means we earn net profit of 25%"

If that is correct then its not too bad for quite some time