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Isn't it funny that this tax won't really raise a lot of money and at the current Brent prices it should be deemed as totally unfair if not outright illegal to essentially ban a business from paying off its debts and making some profit .

Where is the exceptional in mid 70s Brent ? Unless much like woman or man , now even exceptional has a different meaning . We are not at 125 Brent anymore . We only lasted about 1 month in March this year yet got slapped like we had 125 for 5 years in a row ! God I hate these politicians and all the thieving parties

thanks for the link Modestus .

Gas prices are super high again and somehow that doesn't seem to impact our price as much just the focus on oil which seems super strange as Gas is a multiple in equivalent terms ! I almost don't care for now what oil does. Why isn't this reflected ? We are nearly as high as a few months ago in gas terms .

And demand will pop next 10 days starting today on cold weather . Just hovering over zero in London now and it will go below even in central london tonight

Crude draw came yet products increased , but lets remember that any draws in inventory would be counter seasonal . We should be building.

A lot of Russian oil was flooding the market lately due to price cap deadline and now we'll soon see the consequences and if Russian oil production will fall . The second point which should not be overlooked is that China looks like going back to pre pandemic consumption as Covid restrictions are lifted .

Can China buy Russian oil and get European insurance ? Somehow I don't think so . It will need a Russian firm doing so

I think OPEC will observe and if oil price not go the way they want then cuts to production will be made.

As for the greed of the windfall tax gains ,I think that the original amount they wanted to collect is not going to happen lol . Plus they'll get slapped with decisions not to invest in the NS left right and centre.

Remember for Enq specifically the company remains profitable , this week or so should be seen in the context of a full year of high prices , yet I know the short view always prevails here. 40 great weeks vs 1 or 2 not so good yet the latter dominate the valuation . That is disappointing .

I know that chilting but that is more about the other asset classes . Why is Brent affected by a good job report ?

At any rate ENQ / UKOIL tells me that we have been in a downtrend of under performance towards Brent and that doesn't make sense . Especially given the strong debt reduction and profitability . We are 1 in PE ratio ? How does that even make sense ?
The Brent to Enq ratios are not making sense anymore .

Also all this oil demand destruction is just not there based on data but media and inventories are drawing . US accounts for the biggest oil consumer in the world Questforoil hence why the quote . Am fully aware of Arab Light crude cut to in price to Asian countries .

All the best chaps and happy trading ( well not too happy me though )

Am really puzzled . So am expecting another draw in the US tonight and tomorrow , we are coming from a quite a few inventory draws too. SPR is at its lowest I can recall too - no more injections . Russian were scrambling to sell as much oil as possible before the price cap so that too will come down now . Oil firms drastically cutting investments which were already drastically down . We are now told demand may fall but we saw employment in the US and for that matter the UK too at very strong levels , even if in the UK we probably are in a recession unemployment is low very low . Calling this a recession is not what I recall in the past. We also know that production forecasts for next year are for very low and lowering increase.

With China opening up , with India demand increasing . am not sure I get this price action .

Least of all why at $80 are we so bothered ? Our hedges are in part lower and we produce relatively cheaply , all the debt cancellation and new much lower bond issuance count for nothing ? Not so say the accounts but price penalises

That alone is a massive argument in favour of TA vs Fundamentals am afraid price trumps all , even when not making too much sense

Thought I'd share my preliminary view . Not seeing a build in inventories this week again .

Its interesting as now with price cap issue passed, EPL we've taken the hit, China Covid taken the hit , the apocalypse and whatever is thrown at Enquest. Its all priced in. So given that the deleveraging from debt will be the main focus for many investors and M&A activity away from the UK ,share price should slowly trickle upwards. After all the firm is profitable and building value each and every day at these levels which look sustainable for quite some time . If all the negatives are now in the only way is up now in my opinion

No investment advice its all opinion

no probs . We are all super young vs Buffet and Munger

Dear Santa Rally . Please make Kraken happy as he has been even more miserable than me on this one play lol

ahhaha allow me some banter .

Am 5p down yet feel quite confident with this one badly timed trade. I could use the EPL excuse but given that am a purist of TA I didn't read the resistance at 29.5ish well . It was a sell at that time not a buy and I made an error . Which is normal . Overall am happy more importantly I having been buying from 12p and have made sells in the mid to low 30s so we live to fight another day

Brent futures are in Backwardation as you can see forward futures prices are down so not Contango , just to correct what I assume is a typo of yours .

Which tends to be considered bullish yet not really predictive ( I have traded this for nearly 2 decades )

https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5280991

Definition
Contango and backwardation are terms used to define the structure of the forward curve. When a market is in contango, the forward price of a futures contract is higher than the spot price. Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is lower than the spot price.

Compelling reading thanks for the share . I sense that despite the disappointment of many of us at not seeing this closer to 40 and higher that oil fundamentals are good as are Enquest’s and Enquest’s business model and margins .
High and probably higher oil is here to stay as will lack of investment . Taxation will be proven has having made the problem worse and not better . But overall it will work in our favour
At least in my view . We shall see , am down over 5p on my last trade , but feel confident overall . I just got timing wrong and read the signals badly . Overall is still believe my targets will come true

Probably better for them as it provides them with exposure to the equity index or the stock exchange without having to purchase the stock. Easier given the size of their holding . Its a common thing to be honest . They will be replicating returns from HBR. For some hedge fund its also helps if for legal reasons they can't buy the stock
So for us private investors its a bit like buying a CFD on say QQQ but if you wanted to buy the physical ETF on QQQ you can't as its not UCITs I believe (there are other ways around it) .

Also might free up cash as the swap probably won't need the same cash needed to buy the physical stock and help with transaction costs too. My 2 cents . I used to deal interest rate swaps etc

OIl

Brent cash is at 85.5 Brent Feb 84.9 not sure where you get 83
Windfall tax is on UK only profits , ie you need to be profitable and HBR is with great margins at the moment , all it does is reduce the speed at which debt is paid back (which has come down considerably )
GAS has averaged above the 200p all year now , (the periods below have not lowered the average below 200p year to date)
Shorts increasing fast ...( sounds like a bbc journalist but hey jokes aside) last increase of a MONSTEROUS 0.1% was on the 18th of November .. nothing in the last 11 days .
Read the hedged prices for next 3 years on the last presentation , a massive uplift there from a very low base.

Frittering money away ? Buybacks and cancellations actually reduce number of shares hence EPS increases (if all steady ) Earnings / Shares if this last number reduces then ratio increases hence good for us . Not hard to get . Companies with fast declining debt like HBR are not what I would short . But hey all its a free market

All the best

Guys all that matters is that we are up today , double bottom on the weekly ? Cold spell has set the gas market up for a nice rally . CHina re-open Oil also flying

CaneTod

I don't support spending in the UK on current taxation too and will soon be writing to them to express that very view. I urge others who believe in the same way to do the same or vote at the next shareholders meetings against anyone in favour

its closed and API reported late today note sure why , that is why you see unchanged at the momemt

Crude -4.8MM
Gasoline -400K
Distillate +1.1MM
Cushing -1.4MM

am not sure that kick back is available anymore

from 1 January 2023, the EPL rate will rise by 10% to 35%. The investment allowance will be reduced to 29% for all investment expenditure (other than decarbonisation expenditure). Decarbonisation expenditure will continue to qualify for the current investment allowance rate of 80%. The Levy will end on 31 March 2028. With these changes, the EPL is expected to raise over £40bn in total over the next six years.

Hence why Shell , Equinor etc are in the press expressing their concern and probably pulling out of major investments

after UK close. I notice this happens often yet some sold prior to close , seems weird as tomorrow they will go higher.

Am pretty bullish that we'll get a draw tonight from API and tomorrow EIA , fingers crossed i did my sums right

with WTI recovered from going below $81 ! That to me is a good sign

The other thing to remember is that Harbour has assets abroad too . Lets not also under estimate Shell , Equinor and probably BP joint threat of investment reduction , regardless of what they say it would be a big blow and gaffe by the government . Each £1 spent on investments tends to generate £4 down the line is typically estimated . So this is a major blow that far out paces the tax they thought they would collect and does nothing to instead lower Brent prices , if they were smart they would support these investment to add much needed supply .

They responded by saying it was a false rumour and to even expect a cut should they deem it necessary