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and we descend , its weird as we don't even have a short or stock on loan that is material .

I think I need to stop looking at this for a while as the Enquest to Brent ratio shows how Enquest keeps on become cheaper and cheaper vs Brent and that would imply that we shouldn't be far off the lows . Its been years now of this one way track . Chart say ENQ/UKOIL and you will see what am saying . 5 or 6 years where this ratio is not making sense anymore even adding the EPL

as always . Enquest down 2.5% and Brent cash at $86.3 down 0.14% as I type ie practically flat .

If we were to see Brent go up then Enq does the usual and at best recovers from the daily percentage loss, but at this rate even 150 oil would not satisfy investors. Got to be mispriced heavily as is Harbour !

Its bonkers

Good day in the markets, especially once the FTSE closed , so we didn't really get that sentiment boost but :

RIG count was down today , down 10 and the 4 week moving average seems to suggest that at some point US production will start to decline , wondering what they will do next as SPR is very depleted.

CFTC , the commitment for traders report showed a big bump up on net speculative longs for oil.

And overall this afternoon we are clearly RISK ON by any model you are using . I really have no indicator giving me risk off today . (time of writing 20.29 and I use US data )

Not to mention price action today saw price rebound above the 50 day moving average , a good thing in my book
Momentum ie 5 and 20MAs all sloping upwards. I'd be happy to suggest a 0.50. to even 1p rise on Monday. All things equal

So on this basis I'd expect a positive Monday at least ( in a sea of gloomy rants on this bb :-) )

All in my opinion , also I hold and am currently about 5p under water from my average. But being patient.

Always is a seller Auson , the question is where are the buyers ? Brent now up 2%

Brent is up over 1% yet Enquest down . Really hard to explain how another value creating day sees the share down .

Boh ! Back to sleep Yesterday with a lower Brent value we were higher. Daily vagaries are literally bizarre

Well its super cheap at the moment so off the radar too as the volumes are always quite tiny .

Around 90p am almost three times my average or a little under and its where I'd like us to be but I always hoped for way more as things turn around over time . Never understood how this fell to 30p and below . Should have added loads more.

Anyway hope the rally is sustained and under the radar as this BB is quiet and so far attracting no looneys (sadly a few tend to follow me )

Rates keeping on gently falling . Good for borrowers , good in general

GDP data today was just positive maybe giving the mild recession camp a big boost .

One thing am finding strange , at least here in London is that there is no shortage of jobs . Nearly everywhere I look there is demand . Both for high street jobs and recruiters bombarding my inbox because of my work and hiring position . Its not a typical recession so far for sure .

Not a bad rise

Jeffrey the inventories build was due to refineries shut downs as you can see WTI went up and is rallying

Don't look at the headline figures in isolation always look at import / export , remember the SPR and above all the refinery utilisation which was low. The big freeze they had all the way down to Texas stopped a lot of the refineries

Lots of buying at these low levels . Good to see if only from a very low point.

either the Tories or Labour think as its clear from the last licensing of fields fiasco that the UK won't have an oil and gas industry anymore as it will progressively move away . Why is the general public so happy with this ? We will have to import that mythical energy that provides electricity from somewhere and that somewhere will dictate terms to us .

I really don't believe that those saying EVs are the future and electricity will somehow appear out of no where have thought this through properly . The world added 280m people since just pre Covid so from 2019 , and despite the rate at which we add people has slowed , that nominal is HUGE . Where is all this energy supply going to come from ? Are they counting on having Covid forever ? Even that will eventually move away .
This windfall tax has done a massive dis service to all in my view. We had an advantage and we blew it

Think Exxon is taking the EU to court on the EU windfall taxes.

To me it shows that the governments in general have no clue on how to run a bath given that taxation has done nothing but rise across the western world . It rises yet we don't see the benefits and those earning a good wage have to work longer and longer hours . Taxation is proven to be nothing but theft as it takes away from the productive to hand over to the corrupt and inefficient government Con or Lab , is like Dumb and Dumber . Its a terrible situation that somehow people at the ballot boxes are happy to sustain

Approaching 4 Enq for 1 Brent . That ratio usually means we are closer to a buy than a sell and in the last 7 years has been doing nothing but rise . Very weird , and seeing Enquest down . LIke or not even today debt will be down a little and same as post windfall tax revenues will be adding value, so despite that price falls . Am now miles away from my average

downbutnotout am a bigger idiot at the moment averaged at 376p , I mean today its like priced less than old Premier OIl alone. Not making sense with the long list we all know of big improvements since. Clearly am wrong as price is what it is but nothing wrong with Brent at 80 and UK Gas where it is vs where it was. Gas is still a multiple of where we are hedged or were hedged. In fact this was priced better when HBR had hedges at 47p Gas !
Windfall tax on a Brent price that is normal and Gas that may normalise , hardly fair and not surprised HBR went for zero licences if I read well . They are shifting focus out of the UK greedy taxation

Post UK close Brent rallied even more now up over 3% . Santa Rally to come at this rate . Last year in Dec we rallied till into Jan , paused then rallied till May in the high 30s . This year could repeat that and given lower debt could beat it ? Hope so , history tends to ryhme

Hopefully good things

usually a 23 to early Jan seasonality in the US . Similar though in the UK

Enquest has good gains on Weds and Thursdays normally for those who love some stats .

Well as I see a big draw next week again , and China ramping up consumption just as Russia is being cut off from exporting these desperate levels are enticing me to lower my average in the face of what could be the low point . Even though the front 2 months are in slight contango the rest is moving to backwardation . So positive

I agree WellIntervention, Brent flying , Gas in the 300s , all broker analysts have much higher targets and with a bit of momentum we are close to the 5/20ma cross ie momentum and we certainly see a RSI bullish divergence on the daily. Some good signs emerging in my view

Strange 'Presently all O&G are shunned which explains their low ratios. There are many reasons NOT too hold O&G but the largest is political correctness'
Chap called Buffet , little known fella who lives in Omaha went out and bought 'just a few dollars' in an O&G firm in the US . . Occidental , may have heard of that one ....
Quite a few unknown chaps .. have done the same , Paul Singer ... some other amateur like Jim Simons had Exxon ... I mean who are these dudes after all.... hey . ahahah They are all buddies from down the pub those clowns. They should read this bb for real investment tips ! lol