Member Info for onedb

I read the whole thing and I do like both divis and buybacks . I automatically re invested the last 2 , lowering my average only slightly and will do the same for the next. The yield now is very tasty no doubt about that . And will reduce my average even further .
People also forget that hedging of gas was very low in the last few years. The next hedges can be 50 to 100% higher and that will only imply a price of 100p per therm versus the crazy prices we had last year . Given what we are paying in gas bills individually I'd prefer a more balance gas price

What also goes un read in my view is the huge resource we have offshore in Indonesia . There the leeches cannot tax HBR . The good progress on some greener businesses too. I'd be curious to read about the details and what it actually means in revenue terms

For me the buybacks and divi alone make this price very good . Am invested here and below my average but happy to once again re-invested the May 2023 divis should my average be higher than price . Eventually this becomes a good value/income stock

what happened to Romaron ? I thought he spent all day on this bb . Hope he is well and just taking time off.

Would love to see a rethink of the tax on the independents. There should be a study of the gains and the losses that have been incurred. A proper audit .

Gains = tax .

Losses = substantial decrease of investments, job cuts, a value to be placed on losing the little energy independence we could get from the NS, loss of market cap and capital gains lost , etc etc

Am sick of politicians of all kinds who need to be audited to prove the merit of their policies.

If they really cared about the environment then why does a country with 1% of the global population, need to amputate its only energy source and going to have to import from abroad where environmental standards are not going to be governed by our regulatory standards ? This is so daft on all ways of looking at it . Its like giving China , India , etc an even bigger advantage . We lost all manufacturing in Europe or most as a result of idiotic policies like these .

“Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.”

The recent acquisitions and the buoyant London rental market that will show no signs of changing in the future and is the right focus for Foxtons eventually the patient investor will be rewarded .

Good news , as I said recently my short term target is on track .

off topic

spindok,

Thinking of the same and am classified as a high earner . Same as my partner. Sick of the high taxes and the impending even more to the left government that will take over with all the anti wealth rhetoric. I wanted a low tax economy and got the exact opposite. We too are looking to move abroad , when you look at most of our high streets they are dirty , terrible councils that can't even be bothered to clean streets. I'd pay way less tax in Switzerland and have immaculate everything. Its a no brainer . Yes its boring in many ways vs say London , I love London but there is a limit to everything. Plus a place like Lugano is on the door step to Italy so food , clothes, wine , culture is all a short trip south . A short trip south from London and we have Brighton ,really not worth going , horrible place. With Labour it will only get way worse sadly

the pair you of do realise we are based in the North Sea and trade Brent benchmark prices not West Texas ?

One couldn't make this it up ...

Is there an ignore button ? As I'd gladly avoid such posts

A point I wanted to post

We just saw the largest monthly decline in US operating oil rigs in over 2 years.

Energy companies are in no rush to ramp up production and supply is likely to remain tight for longer.

I can't see production globally ramping up either . Supply will be under pressure as we move further into the year.

Am long and added at 19 to lower my average now by quite a bit (still in the mid 20s though ) for disclosure

Good morning to you 5eight , thank you

I look forward to the update . Am indeed Long here

5 Eight ,

Given the FTSE 100 hit new record highs and passed 8000, the idea that US banks were shorting is quite funny . Given that since March 2020 the FTSE 100 has been pretty much going one way only and that is up , referring to this point ....".... these institutions have shorted every UK asset since, thus rendering many peoples peoples pensions savings etc. in bits after years and years of hard work and prudent saving and financial management." - This is wrong as anyone with a chart can point out to you , trading view dot com type UKX and you can see for yourself .

The UK economy is not suffering dramatically more or less than others . Excess Liquidity lets call it M2 is a global problem and not the Uk's only nor Brexit created ( do refer to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS ) Again the UK has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Europe and when compared to the EU too

Also I hadn't noticed that the UK had vacated into another continent . Last I checked it was well part of Europe, much like Switzerland is or Norway . Just to name 2 others. Silly me if my geography is poor .

2y and 5y rates are at 3.6ish with 10years at 3.788% . Base right might be at 4% but that is irrelevant and we are seeing the first mortgage products now going sub 4% . Hardly high for new entrants though painful if one has to renew if the original was taken out at say 2% . But my view would be to take out a 2y tracker and once the BOE starts to reduce rates the pain will drop quickly .

Much of the inflation increase was exacerbated in fact due to energy in this case a war again not Brexit etc but also rents increasing , if that stops or levels you'll notice inflation will come down . You will notice that its the German model which benefited and relied crazily on one supplier , now that has gone for good the German model will have lost a cheap source of energy which gave it a comparative advantage

Am personally long FOXT and have at the time shorted at 400p much to the wrath of retail investors on bbs but was right . Now I rebuilt at 30p and levelling up , but for totally different views to yours .

All the best even if we completely disagree . I don't mean to get you angry or rude (If I was I apologise in advance)

Been waiting for this level to get breached and stick so happy to see nearly 40p on the offer . In my view ( no advice) this could lead to 8 to 9p gains so worth catching the breakout for a trade. The caveats are the usual , plus a stock with low liquidity at least as we have seen lately . Touch wood as am a holder but like to trade it too

No advice as always just sharing an opinion

Wonder if with such a subdued price and rates to decrease later in the year we become subject of a takeover .

With the rental market so strong and mortgage rates stabilising and even with some products getting close to going sub 4% you can see that sales will trickle back , then some more astute CEOs may be tempted to take over some of the competition . Makes sense

Do a simple Brent / ENQ on your charting tool .

Ratio of 4.38 brings us back to 2019 when debt was $1,413m, Today we sit at a lot less than that . How can we then trade at same ratio ?

At any rate one way we can soften the blow of the EPL is to diversify away from the UK something that given the current crop of incompetent political classes we have on both benches should be mandatory

Malaysian profits should not be part of the EPL for example , so hopefully we can add to that going forward .

At this level I hope all the weak hands are being washed out and passed on to steadier one . Very oversold on the short time frames now . And oil in the 80s in Q1 was to be expected and is expected . What gets interesting is what next as China deman may ramp up big time.

Debt down too and yet some are not happy . So sell up and leave it to those who are will to stay steady .

Dumbly

You are so right . Its painful to think someone like that has or had a say

An excellent post . Very well justified argument regardless of whether I hold here ( at a loss too )

Your point is valid across all and fits in with the progressive narrative of always going after the bigger players yet for oil progressives do the very opposite and hit the small guy ! BBC even had the cheek to say that (correctly ) HBR is the biggest UK gas producer but sadly forgets to compare how small it is vs other UK listed firms with global production .

The IQ of our political class seems to be employed only to tax yet I have in all my life not seen a case where tax has really improved anything bar maybe the plastic bags

Our ‘base’ case valuation gives a value of 53p/share, but ignores the potential of M&A expansion in particular. Our revised ‘bull’ case valuation implies a share price of 118p, which is more than twice the current share price, highlighting the potential.

https://www.edisongroup.com/equity/foxtons-group/

Looks promising to me over 39p that is my view for what its worth. Its eluded Foxton last week

Read with interest Stumpy

. I have a simple view above 200ma on the daily or break out of 39

Am happy that way

Also target wise if this formed a triangle then target is as stated previously which interesting enough is the 200 ma on the weekly . Also of importance to me as supply and demand are important above 39-40 levels we pass what I make the point of control on market profile , (I tend to look back say 2 years on the weekly and 1 year on the daily)

The daily at 31ish was broken ages ago as I had indicated a buy opinion at 30.5 - 31 . now I would love to see this weekly (39-40) one taken out too as its a bullish reason or reason to stay long with easy stop loss ( ie below the poc of the 2 year on the weekly )
Hope I make sense but works well for me

Also keeping my eyes on rates of course and the sector which has done very well today and many good charts .

If inflation is kind to us we'll see rates lower slowly which in turn is bullish for the sector , touch wood but I look a the 5year and that is moving down towards its 200ma . Won't be easy and it will be bumpy as inflation tends to be sticky . But if we slowly move in that direction its great.

On an anecdotal view , I live in London and have seen rents boom and properties for rent in good condition as gold dust . I own mine luckily . But have many young professionals I know paying loads for their flats in zones 1 2 and 3 and those same professionals are now being seen further out

Should this close above 39 today I see at least another 10p on this wave, which is not bad given my average . Happy days . I have been pointing out the merits here for a while and never understood this low valuation , best bit the bb has been quiet for ages and no lunatics ! They will come at 90p lol

5yr rate are at 2.9% far away from base at 4% .

Was reading that the most competitive deals will soon go sub 4% . They will fall and I feel that will be the case for rest of the year. Foxtons is more and more reliant on the renting part of the business which looked like it was booming but lowering mortgage rates are a boom for all.

Foxtons above 200MA makes me happy . a Daily close above 39p today would have made me happier as caused a probable weekly bullish engulfing . but we need 1 more penny for that

If one charts ENQ/UKOIL ( BRENT) from 2020 one can see that the ratio has gone sideways to slightly trending down yet add UKOIL to the chart and since 2020 Brent has trended upwards by a lot ,

The disconnect is what attracted me to Enquest , its implying that the stock is very cheap compared to Brent prices . Such a valuation won't be missed by those into mergers and acquisitions .

I was reading that Chevron has a war chest of 75bn that they can do whatever they want to with it. yet choose to buy their shares back . Much like we are seeing with Harbour Energy in a small scale for now.

Enquest will get very close to zero debt this year and that on its own isn't so necessary as is the war chest it can build to do whatever it pleases will be. Buy backs, diversification out of the UK very greedy and obtuse hands , ( I see the BBC is once again messing with the gullible by posting global revenues of Shell and BP as a reason to tax them ... oh the gullible )
Reality is that Enquest is cheap by international standards, especially the US
Maybe a switch to a better index would be useful