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I think this binding agreement is good.
But with FOG`s reduced and diluted gas production share , FOG will have only enough own gas to run the gas dehydration unit before the gas is sold.
... and when the flare is strong and shows no respecively small decline
FOG sells share for the lowest price of 6 pence
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84101&lng=133.65144&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-04-17T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-04-17T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Frackme
... If oil and gas was still a thriving industry and not in wind down mode then maybe Falcon could do better but the reality is there is likely 20-30 years left in oil and gas at any significant level (as it will go on at a reduced level for way longer) and any buyers will know that Falcon can't unlock the value in the asset and the longer we have to give up stakes in drills thr value reduces. ...... no worries today we consume more stones than the people in the stone age. Another example: black coal is the dirtiest of all and 18th century. But reality is that mankind has never burned more coal than today. We have not reached the peak of coal consumption and listen to people who sing the song of the hydrocarbon age. No worries at least mankind will need mor gas the next 50 years is the other prognosis with a cristall ball.
"... have been on both sides of a few deals in my time but every deal is different and what you really want in any deal is competitive tension between two interested parties. ... "
100 % agree. And to create such an environment POQ should tell every man and his dog the Beetaloo FOG story. to get a competitive tension . The higher the share price the higher the take over price.
" I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then. "
If somebody overtakes FOG for 500 million $, this would be a grand theft for me. I estimate that during all the years FOG has invested more than 500 m $ and even more true when you calculate the present value of the in the past invested money in the Beetalloo.
For example YPF goes all in now in Argentina to produce shale gas/oil:
"Argentina M&A Opportunity! YPF plans to offload a significant part of its conventional upstream business, enabling it to focus on its Vaca Muerta assets. The company's conventional production is around 135,000 bbl/d oil and 380 MMcf/d gas - this is a potentially transformational opportunity for the country’s small to mid-size E&Ps.
Welligence has done a deep dive on the divestment program. In our report, we analyze the following..."
There are people, companies who see a good value for shale gas/oil. It would be stupidity on the one side and a grand theft on the other side when FOG gets overtaken for small pocket money.
I think personally that your figure is cheap. If you go back in time and look at POQ's valuations charts this is way too cheap for wells that are flow as good as the best in the states. I think much higher....this guy will to quote him " extract the maximum out of a buyer" ...keep in mind his options....just my opinion...Camelot
I assume it will be difficult to find a buyer who is willing to pay the 10 fold share price. But I also think that overtaking FOG for 1 US$, 1 british Pound is too cheap. And thats the reason I think it is POQs job to show more activities for increasing FOGs share price. Otherwise I see the risk that somebody could overtake FOG with a too low share price.
I guess that BS likes the driver`s seat most and that should be a reason that he wants to keep the operating company TBN. He influenced TBN and the operations already by bringing H&P and Liberty to Australia as shareholders of TBN. This can be a hint that TBN will remain as operator in the future. EEG is the second operating company. For the playbook it could be one option to merge EEG and TBN and get some synergies (like one management instead of two for example).
FOG is the most attractive company for a company that does not operate the upstream in the Beetaloo and does not have the extensive US shale gas know how, like INPEX for example. For a good cooperation it makes sense that a company which operates, owns the LNG facilities in Darwin becomes a stakeholder in the Beetaloo upstream as well.
On the other hand FOG is perhaps the financally most attractive gem in the Beetalloo . And this could be a reason that BS wants to keep FOG for himself, like a nest egg? Ofcourse I would like to see that FOG is sold for a billion $ or more in the near future. On the other hand in the case FOG becomes a dividends generating company in the Beetaloo I hope we are still alive to get the dividends because we are waiting already too long.
We can be sure BS is the dominating stakeholder in the Beetaloo Basin by influencing FOG, TBN and EEG with his share plus his Daily Waters company. and that he has a plan for the next 5, 10, 25 years. Unfortunately his plans for FOG are not published.
So my speculation is that TBN will be the operator in the future and FOG is the take over target for a company with LNG trains in Australia.
The difference is. TRP is in Namibia offshore but not in the Orange Basin, where I think six discoveries have been made by big oil companies (Total, Shell, Galp) together with smaller exploration companies (Sintana Energy, Pancontinental, Africa Oil). The trend for the petroleum geology, the discovered reservoirs is proven there now. Thats the reason the small explorers can make some dollars there now.
It is needed that a discovery is made in TRPs block or in the neighbouring blocks , firstly in Namibia.
The infrared satellite foto of the flare is still looking strong. Conclusion: good gasflow from the reservoir into the hydraulic fractured area with minimum decline. This is a very strong support / hint that we get a commercial production well.
@BeetaLong
do you mean the slide at 08:25?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugE08bg9Voc
.... and only POQ from FOG is oversleeping these opportunities.
See webinar:
https://da2a8e76d046f8c4460d-5bf7032422eb40a5ff2f5b0d01f92144.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/Feb24SouthernAfrica.mp4
Since many years I think that these flare images are a usefull jigsaw piece and discussions of interpretations are good.
For example even the CEO of Africa Oil gave the hint to check satellite images for the flare recently, when the operator (a major oil company) of AOI's asset in Namibia offshore, Orange Basin did not publish the first results of an exploration well there and when AOI was not allowed or able to publish these first results.
Currently we know and have the 100% proof with the flare images from the Beetaloo that there is gas burned, which is good. Currently we can interpretate that the burned gas is in the range of the average testrate of previous test rates. With average I mean the rate is not multiple times bigger nor dissapointingly tiny.
Confirmation with NASA?
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2024-01-13;@131.2,-18.8,5.0z
Made a big smile in my face
This looks like a big flare.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84104&lng=133.65266&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-01-13T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-01-13T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22