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Any guesses on opening spread next Friday/Monday week, assuming things work as they are supposed to?
Mine's 15-19p.
That's a mighty big sample, SS!
The missing link to make all this happen, given that funding "seems" to be a non issue now, is to find the right industry partner to be the project builder and operator. MR has indicated before that running a graphite processing plant is not in his skillset. Presumably it has to be non-Chinese. POSCO, perhaps?
Not looked at rbw before, but a cursory glance at that company shows a current MC of £89mn, and a business looking to give up between 15% and 33% in exchange for a DFS-determined project equity valuation range of $150mn to $333mn. Is that all that rbw has? If so, it makes bres a screaming buy given the project equity upside at OC, and current MC of some £10mn with funding quite possible from the same source.
What a day. What a disappointment for us LTHs who believed, based partly on this discussion board's thoughtful posters and certain others, that silence meant big things going on in the background. And partly being led to believe that flow testing was about to happen after the previous RNS, as part of MOU negotiations.
Now, I can't believe that there is a finite probability that PRD might actually end up losing the Guercif licenxe, after February 5th 2024, through inaction/no flow testing/drilling in the next 9 week window.
Yes, it may seem fanciful, but no, it cannot be dismissed as dangerous thinking. We are dealing with a 3-persdon team, stretched between Morooco, T&T and Ireland assets with all their necessary regulaory hoops to comply with, funding to assign to, and indicvidual responsibilities to carry out.
For the first time this year, I now believe that GRH's categorisation of PRD shares as being "options" has never been truer. THe upside Trillions of Cuft of gas underling the license must be balanced against a real, but slim, chance of seeing it slip through our fingers. I can't quite believe the opposite pulls of momentous/ominous importance in this corporate story, which is slowly unfolding but reaching a pivot point.
Is this why PG has today upped the importance, scale-wise, to CM to match that of Guercif? Is CM his safety bunker?
I note this paragraph from today's RNS:
"A further extension of six months to 5 February, 2024 was agreed with Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines ("ONHYM") to allow for the completion of the MOU-3 and MOU-4 drilling programme and associated reports and studies and for a potential rigless testing programme to be executed subject to a review of the drilling results."
I am reading this as PRD having just 9 weeks, to February 5 2024, to complete the rigless testing and submit a report to ONHYM.
Are we down to the final strokes now, after all the extensions, delays etc? I.E. is it a realistic possibility that PRD may lose its Moroccan licences through this key date passing uneventfully at Guercif?
I sense an element of urgency in today's RNS that underlies this new panic to get over the wire in time.
Or is yet another licence extension a mere formality?
PRD is fully funded for a rigless testing operation but not further drilling of MOU-5 , which will depend on revenues coming through in a timely manner from CM. How likely is that?
Never mind us PI shareholders. AK will come out of this all right in the end, with his multi-million $ bonuses and free shares. That's what really matters, for him, eh?
On behalf of the silent majority of PI investors in PRD, who read this bb, I thank you, @KeithOz, for all your input which is of the highest order of objectivity. Patience will reward us handsomely, imho.
I wasn't aware that this interview was going to take place, otherwise I woud have asked questions.
Anyway, it was a customary coherent and articulate explanation by MR of the Blencowe opportunity.
What was new to me was the first time mention of POSCO, as a possible offtaker. This would indeed be a major plus for Blencowe, giving added credibility and financial backing to the project. and away from Chinese sponsorship, which the DFC would clearly prefer. My only concern is that this could be a two-edged sword, if the bulk sample testing by POSCO fails to meet their internal specs. What then? Is there another non-Chinese credible graphite-using entity out there that might take Orom Cross material, as a back up to POSCO?
Anyway, that's an issue for mid-2024. We won't know much until around then. In the meantime, the DFC payment instalments and progress on the initial DFS should support the sp. An insititutional investor coming in for a size block of new equity at a premium to 5p would also boost sentiment.
So far, so very good, MR.
What a f...ing disaster this has turned out to be.
There were 256mn shares o/s AFTER the Jan 2021 placing of 17mn shares at 10.5p each, raising £1.75mn.
So I calculate the denominator for a TR1 calculation would have been 239mn.
25 trading days left to show meaningful results then.
Cbaron, we LTHs know the story inside out and don't need your condescending attitude for support. Go and mess up some other bb. You're not particularly welcome or needed here.
It's clear from your summary numbers that the early excess growth in production came from acquisitions, whilst organic growth, of 3%, is rather more challenging. The market has clearly given no kudos to i3e for the growth in 2P reserves, suggesting that this is not a price determining parameter currently.
I wonder how the market will react to another year of 3% or so production growth?
Madman-Rob,
I can't take it any longer.
Filtered, for being a boring, daily repetitive, verbose poster.
For Heaven's sake, man, just put a sock in it and comment AFTER news, not just write in generalities all the time.
There are others on the sidelines, silent, with just as large a stake as you, or greater.
@KeithOz has been quiet since the initial RNS on Tuesday.
Your thoughts please, Keith?
And after yesterday's jaw dropping RNS, I now understand why no institutional or trade investor has come on board with a TR1 holding, despite the geological promise of Guercif.
Trust, consistency, delivering on company-stated time lines all mean something in the world of fund management still.
Yep, to the naive wannabe believers in magic fairy tales, 100-200 bopd from Trinidad sure will steady the ship financially.
Please re-read today's RNS. It makes mention of a "potential" 6-9k bopd when a FDP is accepted. God only knows how many years in the future that large stream of income might flow, if it ever does.
Is this really what Morocco relies upon for its security?
MeM, well said.
We know that PG has a contemptuous attitude towards "flow testing", as he referenced in his infamous Sunday Roast interview, calling it for the retail investor base.
But it still didn't stop him using the need for testing as the basis for the last dilution and a £10mn raise.
Now that's been put on hold. Fine, but why not communicate earlier his real intended timeline?
Can someone please explain how PRD will extract top dollar from a Moroccan downstream industrial entity for a sizeable CNG operation, without knowing confirmed flow rates etc?
Trust is in short supply here now. Maybe the gas is still there in the ground....and maybe that $50bn of value, discussed openly all weekend, isn't.