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Much appreciated, Jimmy.
Jimmy,
In light of recent news releases from Prd, what is your current thinking about the compartmentalisation risk at Guercif?
ATB.
My takeaway from the Fox Pitt note today is:
1. Even at 20m net sand thickness, the Jurassic potential DOUBLES the unrisked NAV from $600mn to $1200mn. Until now, all upside valuation estimates have been based solely on Moulaya Middle Sands, and they are already big numbers!
2. As per @KeithOz and Dicko80, these Jurassic numbers (and Moulaya Fan ones too) are "likely" biassed downwards for key parameters such as porosity, gas expansion factor, net sand thickness.
3. In getting to their risked NAV estimate of 35p, FP have double discounted the Moulaya DISCOVERED sands by a combined 75%, and the Jurassic potential by a combined commercial and geologic risk of failure of 94%. Yes, 94%.
Unrisked NAV/share = $4.30, or £3 as things stand today.
4. As a non-geologist, I am blown away by the ability of the drillers and log nalysis to identify a seam of gas sands 2m thick, 1200m vertically downhole. Respect to the entire Predator + contractor team.
Strong hold for that corporate event.
Hope you got back in yesterday.
I just go back to @KeithOz's post on Mondat morning that, if Prd can justify at least a 10mmcfpd CNG operation, that would support a current sp of some 23p.
That's a base case, with warts and all.
Not a bad uplift from 10p for starters, which you, Jimmy, assume is eminently doable.
I don't understand He1. A poster on the other BB states that He1 has "confirmed flows verified and validated", which clearly suggests a discovery already, whilst others like you, Cybertron, are not that confident a discovery is already in place and needs this drill to confirm.
Edark, you come across as a very arrogant s.o.b. Not the sort of fella I'd like to go and have a pint with down my local.
Filtered.
The Chinese aren't stupid. They currently control all graphite processing to battery grade, worldwide. They have been asked to give their leading graphite testing lab a quality assurance about Bres's bulk sample graphite. They will expect to have access to some, or most, or all the future output of graphite from Orom Cross if the quality is assured.
Why would they continue to work methodically and scientifically, knowing that it's quite likely that Bres will be assisted financially by a US government agency who has stated publicly that they want the US to own SPG processing of graphite for EV batteries in direct competition with China?
In short, I don't see room for both camps to stake a claim on OC. Will be very interesting to watch how this story develops (as a decent sized shareholder).
Looks like Johnny12 has done a runner.
Yes, indeed, GRH.
No-one had mentioned the speed with which this drill reached its TD target, until you did just now. It needed commenting on.
O&W.
JV partnering with CHAR, most definitely not.
My thinking is that PG got a whiff of this back when Char announced its tie up with Vivo Energy, for a mid-sized domestic industrial gas distribution business, operating out of the Rharb basin. I am led wondering if this industrial market has enough demand to absorb both the potential new supply from Char after its accelerated drilling program, and Predator over in the Guercif basin. It would explain the added sense of urgency to get MOU-4 drilled and a CNG operation funded and in place for early production and cash flows.
Looks like this move by Char explains the rush by PG to get drilling asap at MOU-4. I'm pretty sure the bush telegraph works very well in a small O&G community in Morocco. It's turning into quite a race to develop the first sizeable onshore CNG operation.
No price on A J Bell to sell.
Cj62, you mean 4 months after the end of P1a, surely.
Super impressive analysis, @Keith.
So even getting to a base 10mmcfgd CNG operation, there is upside to 23p. Makes you wonder why Mr Market is still leaving so much on the plate for low hanging fruit.
Now, my question to you, Keith, is, how much of that potential upside, to £5/sh, would a well-financed large acquisitor allow PRD to retain from a G2P and G2EU major investment project?
Good evening Jimmy,
I'm no O&G specialist, unlike you or @Keith, but can you please explain how Prd can't access Rbl type borrowing to progress a 10mmcfpd CNG operation, without 3D seismic, but with strong flow testing numbers and a revised CPR? That was @Keith's opinion, I believe.
That would be one of the biggest pay-offs for blackmailers in corporate history.
Another suspicious character for the filter button. Life is too short to waste on garrulous nonentities.
As I sit here watching Channel 4 News leading story about how AI is changing our entire world, is this a tool that PRD uses already? If not, are PG and Lonny considering it?
Hi Mick,
It's not the number per se, although rarely do UK-listed minnows go up near 100 times in a full move (Gkp excepted!). It's the mindset that goes with it, duplicated many times on a BB before any firm reserve or flow data have been produced.
Been there, done that, a few times before. Char in the last pre-GFC O&G boom, Eco in Guyana pre-spud, i3e with Serenity in the NS.....