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Just checking back through the last set of accounts and subsequent placings,
BRES has 38mn warrants outstanding, all exercisable at 8p.
20mn of those were issued back in November 2021 with a 3-year term to expiry, so they are on a short fuse now. Will they be exercised when the sp is comfortably above 8p, or rolled forward for another future expiry period, or be allowed to lapse with nil value (under 8p sp)? £1.6mn gross proceeds from that issue at stake.
Then there are another 18mn warrants that were issued in the last 2 placings, both for another 3-year expiry period. £1.4mn at stake in total there.
"In the meantime, if anyone knows where I can buy McVities Rich Tea biscuits in Bangkok, please let me know."
Stupid poser.
If you're that desperate for them, why didn't you take a packet with you?
Hello Jimmy,
I'm not sure what you mean by staying that the 1000ft gas column was a safety case scenario.
O&W
Apologies, I meant Cocobeans.
Cybertron, no the risk here hasn't been eliminated.
This first drill is, as the Daily Mail describes it well, a proof of concept drill. Nothing should be taken for granted yet. And if the first drill doesn't find the sweet spot, imagine the rush for the exit by short term traders.
So it's very much a case of higher risk for greater reward.
Bladder man, I think this upcoming drill shares top place with Prd when it drills its next one into the crest of the Jurassic carbonate layer. That will be equally transformational, if confirming the initial find at the edge recently.
Tony, you've got the wrong fella there. I've never looked in at the panr BB, nor indeed ever had any position in that company. A case of mistaken identity, methinks.
Amazing how the AK magic is still working with certain posters, despite the overwhelming evidence from Mr Market that he has created no shareholder wealth on balance since the Ipo many many moons ago.
Not holding my breath for any great reveal in the next 10 days.
I suggest everyone gives a wide berth to this thing between Oilman Jim and Tony Nortstrom. They still have a well known spat over a company named i3e, and unfortunately for the LTHs like Tony and myself, Oilman Jim alias Louis10, has been quite correct in his bearishness this time. Just saying, as it has no bearing on the Predator case.
Sorry. I'll try again
I'm curious about this Nu-Tech outfit and technology.
It definitely seems superior to conventional log analysis, identifying more detail in more difficult down hole situations. Makes you wonder why the whole world of conventional drilling doesn't use it, or them, cost aside.
I am reading this comment by PG that if it wasn't for Nu-Tech, they might not have found much gas intervals on this MOU-4 drill. Certainly not enough to whet the market's appetite.
So another masterstroke by PG, and a giant sigh of relief by all.
Post by Divmad on the other BB:
"https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=46078886&from=4396#firstpost"
Will a Baker Hughes team perform the flow testing? Has this been budgeted for?
Like you imply, He1 has still to make a commercial helium discovery but with their fully owned rig about to turn, we'll find out soon enough if the current MC is justified. Meanwhile, with news flow assured, this is the only helium game in town with any momentum. High risk but high reward.
Good evening @Keith.
I have been pondering on your excellent posts last Monday morning, UK time, again.
The numbers speak for themselves in terms of upside potential for shareholders. What I'm wodering, though, is how much of this upside, beyond a straightforward, readily financeable 10-50mmcfgd CNG operation, would accrue to PRD shareholders.
In the G2P and G2EU cases, you posit a capex of $100mn to deliver 250mmcfgd. By the way, is that all it would require? Anyway, a big spending large O&G outfit making a deep commitment to Morocco and this new gas province will need a tasty ROI to justify the expense, including the buyout price to PRD. How much of a discount to your £2.5bn NPV12 figure would you reasonably expect to agree terms, if we get that far?
And how do your numbers square with PG's Sunday Roast suggestion of what he is looking for in a trade sale?
Thank you for all your input here, Keith. Much appreciated. We non-industry shareholders are being educated in real-time by your efforts, and a few others. As they say, it's never too late to learn something new. ATB.
"O&W, I was thinking about that, but I think T&T gets sold next year after the snowcap drill/appraisal in Q1 and a bit of CO2 with Heritage."
Hmmm. So many moving parts to this wonderful story. I hadn't thought of that possible scenario, but if it happens like that, then there's another good piece of monetisation to be added to the main event.
Anyone else think that Trinidad will be an opportunistic "trade"?
An interesting thought, but wouldn't Trinidad alone keep PG fully occupied once up and running?
Good points.
PRD are in the same boat with their gas resource in Morocco. It's quite likely that they will prove up more than enough gas that they can reasonably handle themselves as a small-time operator (CNG plant), with the capex ramping up markedly as you go into a gas-to-power business. PRD has openly mentioned a sale of its Guercif licences, once the next CPR and prospectus is made public, after the imminent flow testing.
I see very much the same situation here for HE1. Firm up a huge resource, flow test, CPR (revised), then the resource becomes too big to handle, alone. Does HE1 JV it, or sell it, lock stock and barrel to a well-financed larger group for a huge return on shareholders' investment at these levels?
But have to firm up the Helium resource first.
Much appreciated, Jimmy.
Jimmy,
In light of recent news releases from Prd, what is your current thinking about the compartmentalisation risk at Guercif?
ATB.
My takeaway from the Fox Pitt note today is:
1. Even at 20m net sand thickness, the Jurassic potential DOUBLES the unrisked NAV from $600mn to $1200mn. Until now, all upside valuation estimates have been based solely on Moulaya Middle Sands, and they are already big numbers!
2. As per @KeithOz and Dicko80, these Jurassic numbers (and Moulaya Fan ones too) are "likely" biassed downwards for key parameters such as porosity, gas expansion factor, net sand thickness.
3. In getting to their risked NAV estimate of 35p, FP have double discounted the Moulaya DISCOVERED sands by a combined 75%, and the Jurassic potential by a combined commercial and geologic risk of failure of 94%. Yes, 94%.
Unrisked NAV/share = $4.30, or £3 as things stand today.
4. As a non-geologist, I am blown away by the ability of the drillers and log nalysis to identify a seam of gas sands 2m thick, 1200m vertically downhole. Respect to the entire Predator + contractor team.
Strong hold for that corporate event.