Member Info for Okehurst1

BOO have already guided down on sales but are focused on ripping out cost - working cap last year - distribution / administrative/ COGS this year

£300M to go at to get back to 2019 cost base

Even 50% of the above and keep margin at 4.5% EBITA ( it’s easier to work out this way )

£76M EBITA

£150M ( 50% of the £300M is my figure / bet )

Data is all out there from the company, there is risk execution but looks a decent punt at 40p,

REV B is all on top

Hale country club, discounted subscription for staff

When THG are spending £300M on sales / marketing it’s a drop in the ocean so to speak

The Hotel forms part of the THG group annual marketing costs

If we look at the most recent accounts, THG Marketing budget is line with other online operators - percentage to sales

THG plc's marketing spend for the year ending December 2022 was £298.7 million, which represents 13.7% of its total revenue of £2.19 billion. This is a decrease from the previous year, when marketing spend represented 15.4% of revenue.

The company's marketing spend is broken down into the following categories:

Digital marketing: £177.8 million (59.5%)

Brand marketing: £78.5 million (26.3%)

Performance marketing: £42.4 million (14.2%)

THG advises they use the Hotel to accommodate social media influencers, last time I looked think they had 30,000 plus - it was lot - and I guess they reward the best performing sales ( influencers) to visit Manchester, ditto when they have big launches like Iceland deal etc

JT,

Saw your post yesterday, thinking about stuff, your thesis could be a strong possibility

Makes a lot of sense, Ingenuity is a risk on asset and maybe not suited for the markets just yet, grow via VC /JV style funding rather than PE - former use equity/cash latter love debt and we know MM doesn’t like debt as he loses control

Spin out Nutrition separate quote or trade sale , raise $ pay off the £140M to £180M debt saving £60M interest a year at group level

Beauty remains as THG, premium listing no debt

MM / QIA as you suggest buy Ingenuity, makes sense, in a rush of blood (MM style ) he went public with the £1B valuation of ingenuity by Apollo but we don’t know the context, if MM is planning a move like above he would need to explain the Apollo offer in more detail if he wants to offer below the £1B though

Polish can see where your coming from after shareholders were told before he was giving up the GS before he had to but it’s a fixed time within the IPO prospectus, don’t think it’s an issue as such today, it’s gone in 3 months

More telling we haven’t been updated about premium listing?

Thinking would have been a easy win for THG/MM to have given up the GS plough on with full listing and we bring in the tracker funds, 5% of free float required especially if MM has 50% investors behind him like he says

Indicates they have a plan B but the 35% don’t know it yet

Rev B news could drop any day now, potential rerate for Boo

Starting to look a savvy deal picking up near 27% for £15M

Notice Rev B are now in DH as well, 3700 stores in Europe

Walmart looks like it’s running with this product campaign as well

Just an idea

Ovs we don’t know which way it will go, maybe we just support a rights issue and act as the anchor investor but we would need a whitewash agreement on the 29.99% rule which is doable

Maybe that is the route to go? Rev b raise £25M to £40M, BOO underwrite / anchor and pick up anyone not taking up their rights, protected by the whitewash?

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CtFIBgBxXQy/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

Am only here to make a stable profit

$8T a year industry

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/horse-feed-global-market-report-133100080.html

Appreciate it’s contrarian investing but would argue nows the time to average down / buy in with some of the online retailers - not suggesting ASOS btw

Institutional investors tend to buy low sell high

Sell at at IPO then Short down after lock in (short fund)

Close Short

Go long ( long fund )bottom fish

Retail punters the complete opposite

Agree HH

Telling the 35% what the offer was from Apollo that the 65% turned down is up there on the list as is getting rid of Iain Mc

Damian looks decent

NED’s are supposed to be totally independent

Iain Mc is a totally unprofessional with his first to comment responses to MM’s linked in posts, he comes across as a fanboy rather than publicly listed NED

It’s not a cool look

The Shorts on ASOS will be running for the door if as it looks likely a 3 way bid is looming

Reckon the market will be looking at BOO next week, our band of Shorts have a big call to make, take profits and run or get caught out here as well, going to get interesting.

Nb what’s BOO worth with REV B ?

Nb not looked at ASOS debt but know it’s high

£1.3B EV? Wow

If ASOS valued at £1B with £300M of debt

What is BOO? No debt and net assets ?

Asos is on bid alert after the troubled online fashion retailer received a £1 billion approach from a Turkish company backed by Chinese giant Alibaba.

Trendyol is understood to have been working with advisers from Morgan Stanley. Neither party is under pressure to confirm discussions because there are no live talks. Asos and Trendyol declined to comment.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/asos-on-bid-alert-after-approach-from-alibaba-backed-rival-zgsrzbkfg

Hi Hosia

Bit of semantics I guess and decent chat

Let’s see how it goes, either way BOO looking good

Fully agree all points Canary

Manchego

Ovs depends on your entry price

40p 5 months ago was only possible due to II Shorts loading up, it was an opportune time to go long and make $$

The disclosed Shorts then exited as a block and we had an overshoot to £1.17p and gave Longs a chance to sell into the buying frenzy if they wanted to - it was good business

Hi Wolf

It’s well worth a good read of the auditors report / annual accounts / interims

The auditors actually say ‘ material risk ‘ - as going concern

the Bank has no formal long term agreement and REV B has no cash other than the revolver (debt ) that could get pulled anytime - auditors need 12 months working cap to get comfort

To relist they will need to complete 2023 audit which is due within 12 weeks - just can’t see the AIM Team letting them relist to then suspend again if a delay

Rev b made this statement

‘The FY23 half year results have been completed. There is a detailed plan in place for the FY23 full year results, including a plan with the designers and printers to prepare a glossy set of plc accounts with full disclosures included. The plan has been discussed with the auditors who are working on their own internal planning to ensure audit completion by the end of August 2023’

The AIM team have to take on board there has been a serious fraud within the company, they will be lead by audited accounts not management accounts and the auditors have not even looked at the interims yet so Rev B say yesterday.

Happy, if this helps

BOO have spent £15M for 27% of REV B

they doubled their stake almost whilst the shares were suspended

Bolt REV B into Debenhams and BOO have a vertical supply chain as they utilise REV B manufacturing plant

REV B conduct 50% of their business in the USA

They get to use the newly built BOO 1M sq/ft automated distribution site in USA to service Walmart and other USA clients

Ditto utilise BOO’s automated site in Sheffield

Debenhams can then cross sell PLT /BOO beauty products - the BoD discussed on the latest conf call

Debenhams / REV B have a combined global T/o £300M to £350M

REV B is part of a wider strategy to expand into Beauty according to the BOO CEO

We just don’t know if BOO bid for the lot / underwrite a rights issue and how they fund? Hence it’s quite relevant at the moment, if they do land REV B it should see us rerate upwards