RE: Boohoo Is One Of The Most Shorted Shares17 Jun 2023 13:41
Pedro, genuine question
I have no problem you voicing your opinion on the direction of share price but if you could show me how you break it down - what FCF / earnings do you estimate to get a market cap of £175M ? For 2023 and 2024?
On my side, BOO on even 4% EBITA is £70M a year
but that’s without COGS down 25% to 35% and distribution costs down massively, let’s discount Admin savings to go at (£45M)
People costs / other was down £50M last year and working cap days down to 47, my opinion we will be FCF positive this year ex RevB - jury out how this latter goes
BOO has capex this year of £85M to finish Sheffield stage 2 and USA to produce 2 fully automated distribution units and that’s it, nil debt
2024 we then have a business generating 6% EBITA and arguably including RevB generating £2B and £120M EBITA
Even on £70M 2023 with zero cost savings your 14p is just over 2X EBITA , with no debt and £500M net assets - they would have pumped in this years profits to either buy RevB/ complete USA building etc
As I say,the above are my £numbers, if you could show how we get to 14p (£175M) it would be helpful and it is a genuine question, opportunity for you to break down your calculations