Member Info for Okehurst1

Thanks for sharing Level :-)

Pedro, I wouldn’t have touched Boo at £3.80 but at 35p it’s a decent punt for us PI’s if we look at the data

£900M of COGS ,we know they have slashed up to £350M off suppliers - I’ve discounted 50% of this number as it appears nuts

They slashed £50M people / other 2022 and more to come as automation removes blue collar tasks

Distribution - Container costs down 90%, again it’s nuts savings

Boo shifting Rev B stock to its 18M App users and flexing its £170M to £200M marketing budget for fast fashion fast beauty

When we weigh up Boo’s new CFO, I think he’s an under promise / over deliver guy and am impressed with his performance in 2022 think he’s decent, he’s played down the narrative but the macro / micro data coupled with further cost cutting is pointing to a return to profitability

Back in profit and guidance to 6% EBITDA 2024 and we will look back at 35p as an opportunity to double bag, I agree not without risk but am happy making my bet on Boo

Moody, agree

USA consumer has paid out £170B annualised interest payments since post Covid bottom but has received £170B a year in interest payments, says it all

The 85% mentioned below paying sub 5% have been doing ok alongside 6% pay rises and now inflation falling to 2.97%

The outright Shorts have called it wrong for the USA 2023

The U.K. will follow suit

USA data is interesting - one eye on this is Boo’s joint main market and possibly on par with U.K. down the road

The percentage of USA mortgage holders who have a 30 year loan paying below 5% is estimated to be around 85% as of July 21, 2023. This is based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association

As of July 21, 2023, the current inflation rate in the United States is 2.97%.

The doomsayers have got it all wrong if we look at the Data, the U.K. whilst behind the USA curve will get there.

… am very happy

Glad I didn’t listen to the posters who post 20X s days who said they don’t have a position in Boo , Long or Short and telling us to not buy shares in Boo

Moody made a good point yesterday, weirdly the same gist off posters only disappeared when Marshall Wace closed at THG at around £1 when their buy in Short was 90p

Strange that …

Interesting post PP

‘ On the ethical rating website Goodonyou, Shein received a ‘We Avoid‘ rating for its treatment of workers‘

‘platforms suggesting that Shein relies on child Labour’

Knew Shein used Muslim slave Labour but didn’t know they used child Labour

Wow ! Who would buy their products? They should be outlawed

A mixture of big Mike adding and a Boo buyback would be brutal on the Shorts

…. Topped up at ASOS again

Few thoughts

Based on his track record 5% of Boo won’t cut it for him

Wonder if his next entry price was 30p and we didn’t get there yet - depending on your view

Point being, it looked like he took advantage of Norge reducing to pick up his 62M shares at 35p, without a big seller he may not get the volume in size and will have to chase the shares alongside the Shorts if he wants his usual 10%

If Boo wanted to stop him getting to the 10% a share buy back could well deter him as liquidity in size is drained further and of course the pressure on the Shorts intensifies

Nb his £22M trade a few weeks ago looks like a savvy move by the boy

Thanks PP

Wolf, the wall of cash on the sidelines as you mention as rates fall / come off yield

It’s not without risk with Boo but I genuinely think for us PI’s it’s a decent punt at these levels

Looks like the market is taking the view inflation is on the way down in the U.K.

FTSE 250 is now just 1300 points off its 12 month high

The Shorts have had a painful time this year in the USA markets, looks like they are getting a taste of things to come in the U.K

The market always looks 12 to 18 months ahead

For me ,finally in a closing paper profit with Boo today

Ha! One to many doubles there

Nice one C/Man, Boo feels like the rerate has commenced, we may well see the 70p this year, maybe even the £quid if they deliver

Can we get 2 double double baggers in a year, one in the can already (ish)

Anyone seen anything of the 3 Steve’s?

Anyone taking notice of the amigos would have missed a double bagger

The real jokers were the ones on here in office times posting 20X a day who said they are not invested but they were warning investors not to buy THG

Wolf

Goes back to forward EBITDA margin 2024

once the market gets comfort via an RNS that Boo are back in profit we get a rating on that 2024 forecast print

Good chance we see 9.5 to 10 X puts us 75p to the £1

Boo has to be looking at share price today and thinking £50M as a figure is good way to enhance earnings and strip out 10% of the stock - Mike Ashley esq

Works for the BoD/ staff/ us

The cash is there

Ha! Hi Crowman

We’ve had a good run in THG egh from 38p what a performance

I ditched 50% £1.12 running the rest and took a slug here

Finally … in the profit here

Big Mike and his £22M was a top trade

We had this at THG - ok bid speculation hurt the Shorts but the shorts didn’t return

The movement up will be brutal when it happens - as inflation continues to drop, Boo report back in profit, USA depot etc

Agree Wolf but …. Reckon they will ‘ lose ‘ into capex

Goes back to EBIDTA cash being the bench mark to work from

My view

COGS makes up £900M ish of our cost base

We have slashed 25%/10/10

That’s a whopping £350M but let’s assume its not across the board

Even 50% is £175M of pure cash

Then we have distribution costs down up to 90% - work in 50% maybe, it’s big $$

Admin / working cap days ? Not too sure other than blue collar worker reductions as robots do more of the work - I have budgeted zero so hopefully a surprise to upside

Last but not least, look at the Stock write down at Rev B last accounts - it’s still there - and push the Rev B product through Boo to its 18M App users

Nice bit of bunce to be had when you put all of the above together

Margin calls for Shorts maybe …

….. back into profit RNS hopefully and we are away