Member Info for Okehurst1

All about entry point - always is

7 months ago THG was 38p and doom & gloom and YTD since January THG is 115% - actually hit 200% from the late December price (£1.17 )but ovs that was the Apollo Bid

THG hopefully has more to go but realistically there is little chance of double bagging next 12 months - am still in THG btw

That’s the point really, Boo is in similar position today as THG was turn of year and ironically same share price (38p) but if we get a good TU we rerate up and it’s risk / reward at this point but the price won’t be in the 30’s

ELF up something crazy like 140% YTD

THG 120% YTD

Next 15% YTD

Fraser 12% YTD

Little old Boo is up 4.5% YTD - know it’s been a hound but it’s all about the entry point

Sure there is are few negatives stocks out there but money to made in retail if you get lucky/ research clicks

Taking the view ex being a student a lot of Gen X in U.K. appear to be living at home to avoid high rents, suggest that’s the main Boo/ RevB market place

Not too sure many of them have a mortgage and rents are so high they blow their dough on going out / gym / clothes / holidays and live with the bank of mum & dad paying the household bills?

USA below ?

https://www.ypulse.com/article/2023/04/20/how-many-gen-z-and-millennials-are-really-living-at-home-with-their-parents/

Ped, don’t think any of us move the market, sharing data good or bad and we all make $ is my outlook, hard enough for us Pi’s to make money as it is when we are up against institutional investors

Suggest the post from KF this morning was as good example, very helpful info and much appreciated that the poster shared

T4G think we have to acknowledge there is operational risk in opening a 1Msq/ft fulfilment centre in USA alongside Macro stuff

The market has priced that risk in real time as Boo sits at NAV

My view Boo is a steal at 38p if you can handle that risk in your head, obviously Pedro can’t

Pedro agree , huge risk

Am in heavy at 35p average so sitting on a nice paper profit, dry powder at hand if we get a pull back

We had this at THG at 38p turn of the year ( ironically same price as Boo today ) you take your chances from your research and hope you call it right, THG is now history, us bottom fishing longs made a killing, I switched a big chunk of profit into Boo - still retained 50% in THG

Appreciate you have no position in Boo, I am averaging 35p so in the money ( paper ) I may be wrong but comfortable taking the risk.

Let’s see how it goes

Pipe, agree on Tesco btw

Boo/ RevB doing $500M Rev last year USA - Boo on 58% our highest margin market, it’s not like we have just put our flag in the sand stuff

New USA 1M sq/ft site will hit have 600 staff with new recruits up from 200, we can assume stuff being distributed.

1 good RNS confirming in £numbers back in profit and we rerate up, just can’t see the 30p again unless that RNS is bad - so we are in almost binary position today, risk / reward stuff for us PI’s

I have been averaging in so at 35p, suggest like others if we get a pull back below 35p I will take advantage, I would love 30p before the TU to add and get my average lower by a tad but I just can’t see it

Do agree not without risk but guess that’s what us bottom fishers enjoy - the risk reward

Just on USA

Between Boo/RevB …. We had $500M + of sales last year and that was without the new 1Msq/ft site up and running

Capacity is £2B from the USA site

Our USA margin is 58%

That’s a decent size operation already plus capacity

RevB was a smart bit of business as well

When you look at the value of ELF vs Rev B - ELF if valued at $7B !!

RevB can now tap into the new warehouse for USA online channels, same market, price range as Elf

‘E.l.f.'s CEO highlighted the average price point for the company's products, which is a little over $6, compared to over $9 for the legacy cosmetics brands and over $20 for prestige brands’

"Unlike these higher-priced brands, our pricing strategy focuses on everyday value instead of broad-based promotions. We believe our value proposition creates accessibility in the category, allowing more consumers to enjoy the best of beauty," said Amin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/shares-of-elf-beauty-surge-15-after-company-raises-full-year-guidance-on-surging-sales/ar-AA1eErid

They told us on the Conf call back in May but nice to read via the contractor providing the service;

‘The facility allows Boohoo to offer next-day service to the New York City metro region, a key customer area for the fashion brand, DHL said previously. The facility is expected to reduce transportation costs, improve service, and drive greater agility and speed, DHL said’

We may get news on new manufacturing suppliers in Guatemala / Mexico filtering out, test /repeat with no tariffs, 24hr delivery East Coast and 3 day whole of USA is exciting, throw in 58% gross on top

KF, thanks for sharing

This paragraph

‘Those hires will join 200 people already working at the facility as operations are gaining momentum, a spokesperson said’

Was thinking that Wolf

Big Mike must be looking at encouraging real time data to punt £30M last few weeks into Boo

Put aside the EBIT to EBITDA debate

The gross profit margin holding well at 62%

Boo in 2022 were doing 58% in USA, U.K. looks like it was around 48%

Due to COGS / other cost cutting we should see BOO increase their gross in the U.K, will be an interesting number to check out when we get the TU

‘In light of the strong top-line improvements, HUGO BOSS also significantly increased its EBIT in the second quarter, up 21% to EUR 121 million (Q2 2022: EUR 100 million). Consequently, the Group’s EBIT margin increased 40 basis points to 11.8% (Q2 2022: 11.4%). Higher revenues compensated for a decline in gross margin, down 120 basis points to 62.3% (Q2 2022: 63.5%)’

‘Currency-adjusted Group sales in Q2 increase 20% to EUR 1,026 million

Double-digit growth across all brands, regions, and channels

EBIT increases 21% to EUR 121 million in Q2; EBIT margin up 40 basis points to 11.8%

FY 2023 outlook raised: Sales to grow between 12% and 15% to a level of EUR 4.1 billion and EUR 4.2 billion; EBIT to increase between 20% and 25%’

…. Decent

https://group.hugoboss.com/en/newsroom/news/news-detail/hugo-boss-continues-strong-growth-trajectory-in-q2?utm_medium=social-organic&utm_campaign=press-release&utm_content=Q2%2F23&utm_source=LinkedIn

I know Pedro is not invested in Boo but the poster is entitled to their view - non of us PI’s move the market

Pointless clogging the BB having a tit for tat is my view

Share info / data good or bad and make $$

Tbf to Ragtrade he questioned Boo’s tactics at the time which were aggressive to say the least

The first 25% was stock in transit then 10% then a further 10% on top

Obviously Boo will pass some of this on to customers but it’s relatively speaking large $$ in the Pot to play with?

Fully appreciate it’s all conjecture until we get the TU but Ashley knows the marketplace arguably with a better insight than a hedge fund running maybe a long / short strategy, saying all that it will be interesting to see who is right?

Suggest COGS is key now as it makes up 50% of our cost base

Maybe Boo taking the 25/10/10 looked premature but they know the market of course

Jury still out until we get the TU but it’s comforting Mike Ashley - who is close to the coal face - has pumped £30M into Boo shares the past few weeks vs Wace who done the opposite trade for £500k

Interesting to see who is right when that TU RNS lands

I am not a holder of ASOS but a respected balanced poster who knows the industry well and posts now and then on this BB - Rag trade

Posted below yesterday

Suggest this reads across to Boo Plc as well

‘Weather and Trend drive sales, expect a poor July on seasonal stock, unfortunately we tend to see the Weather improve as the kids go back and as the AW stock hits down !!

That said inventory is under control here now, costs massively down, manufacturers are scrabbling and fighting against each other to keep there machines ticking and with less orders around this is resulting in better margins for the retail trade, it's a buyers market.

At the fashion driven end of the market a big swing towards casual trousers away from Denim, which has become staid giving consumer no reason to buy, this bodes well for AW’

…. So he kinda needs 28M ish shares to get the Ten