Member Info for Okehurst1

PP wouldn’t like to see you lose money following what MB does, he mostly gets it wrong on paper but we don’t know what he makes on the Long bet - he may be Short & Long same time, it’s worth checking his F13 filing records - public information

As an example here is 3 - most of his F13 filing he has lost money but that doesn’t mean he lost money on the overall trade as he may he have been long but he didn’t have to disclose, too many to list, hope this you .

Shorting the VIX in 2018: Burry bet against the VIX, a measure of volatility in the stock market, in 2018. However, the VIX spiked in late 2018, and Burry lost money on his short bet.

Shorting the S&P 500 in 2019: Burry bet against the S&P 500 in 2019, believing that the stock market was headed for a correction. However, the S&P 500 continued to rise, and Burry lost money on his short bet.

Shorting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in 2020: Burry bet against TLT, an ETF that tracks the price of 20+ year US Treasury bonds, in 2020. However, the price of TLT rose in 2020, and Burry lost money on his short bet.

Plus check the date of the bet he just disclosed via his F13…. End of June, the market ripped July

Smoke and mirrors by II’s, us PI’s are the fodder to nick our money.

… just in shrinkage

Apparently in California if the theft from a shop is less than $900 then the police don’t prosecute if the store catches the thief, saying that it doesn’t look much different in the U.K. ?

Hats off to Mike Ashley, however he does it he’s an amazing retailer

Nice that he stuck what was is £40M into Boo the last couple of months, wouldn't he surprised to see big Mike dipping in again

Boo has £300M of cash in hand - they are stuffed with cash they generated £120M FCF last year, cash isn’t the issue with Boo, it’s focusing on the assets they have accumulated and now making them generate a decent margin collectively

6% woujd be a good start on £2B for 2024

They purchased 26% of Rev B through last years capex spend of £90M plus - £15M Rev B, balance Sheffield / USA

They forecast £85M capex this year, USA , Sheffield phase 2 and they topped up Rev B to 29.9% ish

They don’t need to bid for Rev B that’s put to bed / under control

The BoD have enough on their plate managing the scaling of the USA operation via the new 1Msq/ft centre on the East Coast and completing Sheffield phase 2

There is a risk but we are set up well

Germany in a deflationary environment

Germany Producer Price Index YoY is at -6.00%, compared to 0.10% last month and 37.20% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 6.62%.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/germany_producer_price_index_yoy#

Wolf, just back to RevB results day

Would be surprised after spending £2M on Mcfarlenes and an 8 month investigation and ‘all ‘they could find sales wise was

£9M of Sales that were recognised by the company but Rev B had no input costs -as the CEO funded the purchase of goods indirectly by giving wholesalers cash to buy RevB goods then storing same ?

The manufacturing plant looks suspect as well but non cash for now

Throw in Bob Holt wrote off £109M all in, can’t see any more nasties - would be very surprised and there may be a case against Mcfarlenes if there was ?

Could be a £3M cost Mcfarlene/ nomad etc all in which they will argue is exceptional and they take the hit last year ?

Finance & Capex £7M + all in

So moving forward 2023 /4 can Rev B get to £200M + via utilising BOO’s 18M App users and maintain the near 10% EBITDA margin they appear to be achieving in Q1 of their financial year ?

Will be interesting to see their forward guidance and how they see the Boo relationship coming together

Copy of the numbers

‘Inflation may be easing more quickly than first thought, the Office for National Statistics has found, providing a boost for Rishi Sunak, who has pledged to halve inflation by the end of the year.

Calculations released on Monday by the statistics office show that the core inflation rate fell to 6.8 per cent in July from 6.9 per cent in June and from a peak of 7.3 per cent in May.

The new modelling indicates that underlying price pressures are easing, raising the chances of the prime minister delivering on his promise to halve the headline rate of inflation to about 5 per cent by the end of the year.

Another measure of inflation published by the ONS, the CPIH, which includes housing costs, tends to be lower than the official consumer prices inflation rate. Core CPIH in July was below the common trend component level at 6.4 per cent.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/23eb9b56-4056-11ee-8b31-3c9c533abb75?shareToken=aa1bc687e4c2f88e3c524acaa74772e9

Nb unless I missing something ? That’s the figures in the report ditto the write downs

Mute point ,wonder if Rev B got the stock back for free that the directors bought / stored

Funny old world

T4G that doesn’t affect Rev B cash wise - ex gratis payments

the 2 founders funded the scam

The report identified the cost in sales to the Co … £9M all in

Reputation on top agree but in terms of the accounts it appears Bob threw everything in there to get sign off - but the £9M was the actual figure top line but there was no input cost other than post event the £2M legals plus extra audit costs I guess

Hi Wolf

Thought process on Rev B

Their total hit on last audited accounts was £109.5M

Goodwill impairment: £87.6 million

Intangible assets impairment: £31.7 million

Plus couple of £M on other

The issue at Rev B appears to be the 2 ex founders funding suppliers to buy stock and then storing same, sales wise it was around £9M - that’s what Mcfarlenes report says in terms

of $$$ cost operationally

Looks to me Bob threw the kitchen sink at impairments to get the audit over the line and Rev B had a bit of bunce to play with going forward which showed through via interims.

I could be wrong and we will know more next Monday but if the ‘ fraud ‘ was £9M then stock write down may well be in the mix

Nb based on the £2M Mcfarlene report the company lost £9M of sales but incurred no costs as the founders actually funded, the 2 ex directors have still not sold any shares I just wonder are they on the hook for much more than £2M plus from the company itself ? Shareholder action/ claim is separate

31/08/23

Keep an eye on how much Rev B stock is on our platform and its position.

RevB had a lot of stock written to a zero, bit of bunce for both companies

Personal view on the MM’s/ Shorting

I agree with Hex’s post below

MM’s can move a penny here or there to fill a ‘protected ‘ order but they don’t carry risk

Institutional Investors have various strategies which may be opaque, for example

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/options/options-strategy-guide/short-strangle

Or Short/Long same time, maybe 3:1 long to short as an example

https://smallexchange.com/news/long-and-short-at-the-same-time

Bloomberg T kind of gives a photograph of what’s happening as long II’s under 3% play around without detection and even above 3% longs can manipulate and can short to under .5% if they know an II is about to borrow stock on margin

It’s not easy and you need tonnes of luck but bottom fishing / holding where Shorting is active offers good risk / reward opportunities for us little PI’s but it’s the II’s providing us the chance not the MM’s agenda

Gist of the article is questioning Tony Blair’s policy group and the Tories wanting pension funds / insurance companies to be invested in U.K. , ditto stamp duty etc

Both Tories and Labour support 5% of the above funds have to be invested in U.K. unquoted companies, politically it looks like it’s going to happen

Sitting back and weighing stuff up, the AIM market could be a beneficiary of the proposed changes, no stamp duty plus unquoted for (tax) investment purposes

Maybe that’s what Boo were thinking taking on board Jefferies/ HSBC? Target the pension / insurance CO’s especially with their USA operations now open?

Boo’s CEO has said the new USA automated distribution centre is a gamechanger for the company

East Coast 24hr delivery

95% USA 2 to 3 day delivery

We have a 58% gross margin USA to 48% U.K. / ROW

Boo is a bet on the USA economy, on shoring and a someaht anti Chinese Communist Party stance.

Posted by Kach a few weeks ago

LNP | LancasterOnline

August 2, 2023

DHL hiring 400 workers near Elizabethtown

DHL Supply Chain wants to hire 350 fulfillment specialists and 50 support staff following the mid-June opening of British clothing e-retailer Boohoo Group’s first U.S. distribution center near Elizabethtown.

Those hires will join 200 people already working at the facility as operations are gaining momentum, a spokesperson said. Pay starts at $19/hour.

DHL, a subsidiary of the German Deutsche Post DHL Group, is on a hiring spree after having been contracted in October to run the 1.1 million square foot Boohoo warehouse in First Logistics Center @ 283, an industrial park 2 miles northwest of Elizabethtown at 2771 N. Market St. in Londonderry Township, Dauphin County.

The new warehouse, which is bigger than 17 football fields, is located along Route 230 near Conewago Creek, which forms the boundary in the area between Lancaster and Dauphin counties.

Boohoo signed the lease with industrial park developer First Industrial Realty Trust, a Chicago-based firm, in October.

DHL Supply Chain is holding a “hiring event” Wednesday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the warehouse. Ahead of the event, candidates need to apply online at careers.dhl.com. Candidates attending Wednesday should come prepared with a valid ID and for an interview and drug test, the company said.

Lancaster County commutes are getting longer and more workers are headed out of the county

Tom Fogerty, president, human resources, DHL Supply Chain, said in a written statement that the company offers associates “competitive pay, a dynamic work environment and a brand-new facility with many benefits.”

The facility allows Boohoo to offer next-day service to the New York City metro region, a key customer area for the fashion brand, DHL said previously. The facility is expected to reduce transportation costs, improve service, and drive greater agility and speed, DHL said.

More hiring events for the Elizabethtown area facility will be announced in the coming months, DHL Supply Chain said.

DHL Supply Chain has said it expects to hire 1,000 associates in its first year at the First Logistics @ 283 warehouse, with nearly 2,500 associates expected over the next three years.

DHL plans to add amenities for employees, including a kitchen/canteen with fresh food prepared daily, and an on-site gym and activity area.

The site includes a recruiting and training center to allow for faster hiring and training of new associates.

First Industrial Realty invested $125.4 million in the building leased to Boohoo Group and is building a second facility at the park that is expected to be completed this summer. First Industrial recently told investors

Thanks for sharing Craig

Not sure we have seen that publication / slant, ditto below regarding ‘ open & operational ‘ Stand corrected if we have ?

‘Now that boohoo’s 1.1 million-square-foot distribution center is open and operational, we are eagerly searching for skilled talent who want to work at DHL Supply Chain, a company where exciting advances are being made to create the global supply chain of the future,” Tom Fogerty, president, human resources, DHL Supply Chain, said in a news release. “We are proud to offer associates competitive pay, a dynamic work environment and a brand-new facility with many benefits’

Yeah most recent numbers

Boo mentioned on the Conf call that PLT would be enjoying a marketing campaign in LA come September alongside the staged opening of the 1M sq/ft automated distribution unit

Looking at the most recent numbers from PLT it appears to be doing ok, makes you think what can it do now USA up and running including avoiding the distribution/ tariffs from U.K. to USA

Revenue: £712.2 million

Pre-tax profit: £75.1 million

Gross profit margin: 62.3%

Operating profit margin: 10.3%

Net profit margin: 10.3%

On line clothing sales up

Peers reporting market beat expectations

USA market looking robust in comparison to far east

One eye on the beauty market in general

China / Asia the weak areas by the looks of things

USA back into growth their latest Qtr