PattSV, I sort of knew that you were talking about the long term market valuation.....seems a bit 'punchy' to me, although 'DaringInvestor's' analysis seems to support your estimation somewhat. If one of the big pharma shared your valuation then I think they would be putting in an offer (certainly not billions but probably 100's of millions)....perhaps that's what's happening now.
But I've seen people talk about 'punchy' valuations before (pre-MED2002) based on CSD500 and that product has turned out to be less 'important' than investors were hoping. There is also a question about patent expiry dates....they have taken too long to develop MED2002 and need to find a way to extend the patent life. A goldmine with a few years worth of ore is worth less than one with 20 years worth of gold in the ground.
" I’m pretty sure the estimates will be based on adjusted ebitda or some form of adjusted profit rather than based on PBT......."
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Brass, are the forecast EPS figures based on EBITDA?
".....although I would have thought our potential end valuation will be well in excess of a billion pounds given...."
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PattSV, you're reading too much into Mr Barder's 'punchy numbers' comment. 'Well in excess'.....an impressive valuation. You win the prize.....
'Digital Look' website has forecast for YE 31/03/19 of:
Rev: $320m
Pre-tax: $34.5m
EPS: 43p
If these numbers are realistic then the SP looks very cheap. However I suspect that pre-tax actually means EBITDA. The half year numbers probably need to confirm that the integration of YuMe is progressing well before the SP gets the re-rating that most of us think it deserves. I expect when that happens STT is going to get some stick.
A dividend would be 'nice' and it would confirm that a profitable future lies ahead for the company.
".....that’s a massive shift to mobile in one quarter. They’ve changed something here or switched off some low profit desktop."
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Surely it means that the large increase in volume (presumably YuMe traffic) is mostly mobile.
To be honest I had issues with Sobeit - although I don't wish him any ill will and I hope he is healthy & prospering - but he was the anti-matter to Stt1. One is full of negativity, the other was/is 100% positivity. I think if they ever met then it would be the end of the universe as we know it. An explosion of biblical proportions....or just a helluva an argument. A rumble in the jungle moment....or just handbags at dawn. Sobeit where art thou?
"This fantastic weather is amazing, and hopefully a record breaking summer, topped only by our personal
Record breaking licensing deal.,,,,,,,,,,,next week will be exciting"
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TB, don't get too carried away...it's only a football match!!
Tricky, good to hear from you again. I take it that you don't like the new ii website and are going to contribute here now. The RTHM board was never that busy on ii but it's like a ghost town now.
Turkleton, I'm not sure where Sobeit went, he hasn't been on ii for ages (as far as I know).
BTW did you make it up with Mr. Sign-up-on-a-hospital-bulletin-board-for-private-german-lessons-and-then-never-show-up
I do wonder at the motivation of Stt1 and I think in the end he just likes annoying people on this discussion board. It doesn't bother me but I do worry that someone is going to have a heart attack.
Sometimes he does strike upon something useful to debate (for example GDPR). But the constant negativity gets a little draining at times. But based purely on the SP he seems to be winning the argument at the moment. Perhaps the next set of results will prove him wrong (how often have I been saying that?).
" Will we get that RNS I think it will be July possibly. Hope an update RNS out of courtesy would be lovely."<br />====================================================================================<br />Rhodi, I guess you're talking about the RNS on the 'deal'....it could be July......it could take longer. We just have to hope that the 'deal' is as 'punchy' as Mr Barder suggested and that it actually happens at all. Don't forget that Mr Barder has had an offer in the past (a very long time ago) that didn't meet his valuation on the company. But I suspect things are different now and a 'deal' is very much needed.....whether that be a MED partnership or a full takeover.<br /><br />Not sure about an update RNS this month. I suspect Mr Barder is regretting giving guidance on when things will be done (although he keeps on doing it and hardly ever achieves things on time). But deals can be complicated - don't we know with that Brexit thingy - and sometimes it's better to give the audience a fait accompli.
"In fairness to Greene 43 he has slated this sharecwhen it was in the 20's prior to Christmas and he was still slating it when it went over 40p since then ...so he is consistent."
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Rhodi, so Greens isn't a trader and isn't looking for a 100% profit (by buying at 20p and selling at 40p). That makes his negativity even more sad. Negativity for the sake of it. Although from his post I thought he was suggesting to buy at 20p & sell at 40p.
Copied from 'iii', a message from TonyDeadeye@ "I notice your reply on LSE re the block listing, Chariot, and I can see why you think the latest application appears different (because of the wording compared to previous applications). But I'm pretty sure that "a block listing is a block listing" and they don't exist in different forms (if you see what I mean). This explains how (and why) it all works �����.. https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/ukla/pn-907-1.pdf"
"Having said that ... a constant output of 40k oz p.a should still value this company at 3p per share at least" ================================================================================== RB, I have some trouble understanding targets....when they say extraction will reach 70,000 tonnes in 2019, do they mean the start or the end? I'm guessing you will say: "Yes....one of those". Ideally 70,000 tonnes in early 2019....hopefully a decent ore grade too. I think this will equate to circa 60,000 Oz gold per year. In that case 3p SP would probably look cheap(ish)...as you suggest. I still don't understand how they are shoring up the underground tunnels....I thought they would need some sort of concrete mixing facility, using waste from the mine as aggregate. Previous targets were very optimistic (obviously). But they had production going from 38,000 Oz in Mar 2017 to 100,000 Oz (run rate) in Jan 2019.....roughly 21 months. So if production is approaching 8,333 Oz per month in January 2020 then I'd be very happy and absolutely amazed. Not sure why reserves would be running low. I thought they had proven reserves for many years....even decade(s). Plus we have the exploration area (the data for which cost many millions of $) to extend the life of the mine. I'd be more worried about political stability in Kazakhstan.
"Lenovo snm" ==================================== I'm guessing this is 'Lenovo....Say No More' rather than Lenovo 'snm' laptop. I have a Lenovo Ideapad but not 100% happy with mine. The screen hinge broke - a common thing, poor design I would say. There was a 'bodge' fix on youtube - but I had to take it to pieces (1 month beyond the warranty). So not sure I would buy another...unless the price was right. Still working after 5 years, so cannot complain too much. but If it wasn't for the 'bodge' it would have been in the bin years ago.
Why the RNS at 4:25pm? Usually a sign of bad news but I cannot really see any. Very positive comments in the results...."Almost there" (yet again) but this time they have put very short deadline on their targets. Almost making a profit too on very small gold production.....keeping a very tight control on costs.....if the new equipment really does allow them to dig 40,000 tonnes/month of relatively high grade ore then real profits will follow quickly. They also want to 'pay back' shareholders....which isn't really surprising because 'the family' own pretty much the entire enterprise. So the next 6-12 months could be transformative......although nothing about this company is ever plain sailing. But I get the feeling we are 'almost there'......just over the next hill.....there will be another hill....and another....but looking optimistic.
Petrafied, it's entirely up to you what you do. You don't have to take up the rights issue, you could just keep the 5000 shares and see what happens.....but their value may fall after the Rights Issue (I'm not too sure how RI's effect existing shares). I would say to think carefully before investing new money into Capita. If the management don't deliver on their promises then there could be more pain for shareholders. I guess if you stay invested or invest more then you think Capita will recover. Don't invest any money that you aren't comfortable losing, after Carillion I would say that no company is too big to fail.
"......long term investment on this share as it will either be funded by more shares issued , Bank lending , or a sell out/takeover....." =================================================================== Dud, other options are a possibility. It all depends upon whether anyone has confidence that the management have got things under control. Based on the mess they got themselves into then getting finance could be trixky. I hope things work out Ok but I have made my choice and don't fancy the excitement.
"Meanwhile the trading spread is absurd....." =================================================== RB, this is something I don't understand either. What is driving the spread wider? First there was a 'sell' of 70,000 (a massive �777) that drove the spread to 0.25p. Then yesterday another 'sell' of 3,159 (�35.06.....yes �35...?!?) and the spread rises even further to 0.40p (36%). There is something very strange happening. I haven't actually tried buying any, so perhaps the spread is a mirage.
RB, a gradual ramping of production is to be expected.....something like you suggested perhaps....although Altyn never seem good at hitting targets. I'm not sure if the underground operation is impacted by the Kazakh winter as much as the open pit was. But I expect winter is likely to be seasonally lower gold production as norm. There is a question about how quickly production can increase given the limited funds being made available ($15m as opposed to anticipated $40). Some questions spring to mind (I don't expect you to answer them...they are more rhetorical) 1) When will the money be made available and will it in staged installments? 2) What will the money be spent on.....are there any big ticket items....will they have enough money to buy the big ticket items that are needed to get the significant increase in production that is needed? 3) What level of production is needed to enable further mine development to be handled by cash flow. When will that really happen? 4) I think they have to order some new equipment (one of the big tickets).....when will that be up & running....what level of production can we expect thereafter and how soon. Everything will hinge on whether they can produce enough profitable gold to maintain the developmental work....if not then Altyn will continue to look like just a big hole in the ground to pour money into.