Member Info for oilovlam

"- Even if the 5 minute claim is not able to be made, the above population 12 to 15% have no other alternative"
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DI, didn't they make the 5minute claim in the 2016 RNS? Now they 'discover' that the 5 minute claim isn't sound....isn't that misleading the market. The 5 minute claim is very important because MED2002 was being sold as being almost instantaneous.....no waiting around for Viagra to take effect. The academic behind the study must be suspect if he allowed FUM to make the claim without the proof. Presumably the big pharma went through the data and found that the 5 minute couldn't be substantiated. It would also mean they wouldn't trust what FUM are telling them and they would want to see the data from the P3 trials.

A complete shambles. I don't know who is to blame but Mr Barder (no matter how much I like him) must take ultimate responsibility.

DI, you seem to know your stuff. Could you or someone else please explain what this Placebo stuff means. I thought placebo was basically a 'sugar pill'.....if MED2002 (at the initial lower dose) was no better than 'sugar water' what was all the hype about in the 2016 MED2002 'blockbuster' RNS.....have we been led up the garden path?

It would have been better for the SP if the RNS had contained news that the financing had been agreed....but I suppose they couldn't risk leaks as they tried to obtain the funds.

Hard to see what terms they will have to offer to get the cash.....I think they have burnt a lot of bridges over the years. They should have got enough cash in 2016 to fund MED2002 all the way through development and not wasted money on all those silly reports as they tried to hype up the value of MED2002.

I cannot see how Mr Barder can be separated from the company....he is the 'driving force' behind FUM.....but he has consistently failed to deliver on expectations in a timely manner. I don't think he understands that it's better to under promise and over deliver....not the other way round.

What was PJ saying about 'news' not impacting the SP.....well he never saw this coming in his chart, did he?.....Oh, No, he did...of course, it was all in the charts.....exactly as expected....funny that!!

It seems that charts (or PF's theory) may have some uses but it can cause one to ignore the 'signs' of impending/likely news.

According to PJ the 'news' today should be supporting a strong rise to over 49p.....well that's gone out the window.

I doubt we will get an apology (for all his comments about 'facts' he made to some posters) but more likely an explanation on why the SP is behaving just as he predicted.

"They had $75m cash as of fy2017, just weeks before the Yume deal was announced. The cash element of the deal was $60m cash, with the rest in shares.. Numis, the house broker were expecting H1 cash to be around $58m, so around the same mark as the cash element for the deal... " (STT)
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I'm not sure where Numis would have got the $58m cash figure from.

$75m minus $60m (cash part of the YUME deal) leaves $15m, doesn't it? YuMe also had some cash they brought to the merger....but it wasn't that much because they paid a hefty dividend before the merger. So showing $37m now is pretty good going IMO, which should be more than enough to fund the company until revenue & profitability really gets going.

So your negative spin doesn't make sense to me.

"My point was it makes them higher risk compared to being cash rich...ie when they had $75m cash, just 18months ago... " (STT)
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Of course it's always lower risk to have cash in the bank.....but the management decided to 'invest' most of that cash in YUME.....which was a strategic investment in the long term future of the company. They probably thought it was better to merge with YUME rather than have a gradually decreasing - but safe - cash pile. Time will tell whether that extra risk was warranted but based on forecasts that gamble seems sensible IMO. Of course you don't believe the forecasts but there are a lot of people (mostly on here) that are OK with the way things are looking.

Adri, of course you're right.....having a credit facility doesn't make a company 'grown up' (whatever that means)....equally having a CF doesn't make R1 a bad company. Indeed the fact that somebody has given them a sizeable CF could be seen as a vote of confidence in the company....although from recent news the amount of easy company debt is a potential problem in the US in general.

Jesk, it's fairly obvious that Mr Barder is under a bit of pressure....he 'gambled' on getting a deal (by having reports done 'talking up' the value of MED2002...which cost money) but the potential investors haven't taken the bait (yet). Perhaps they haven't delivered on Mr Barder's 'punchy number' expectation or perhaps they can see the benefit of waiting.....perhaps they just aren't interested (at the moment). So Mr Barder must be worried slightly. Of most concern must be a potential need to raise extra funds....something there may be no stomach for. <br /><br />The danger is that the 'interested party(s)' make a low ball offer and Mr Barder feels he has to accept. I think Mr Barder may have painted himself into a corner....which would not be good for shareholders. What FUM probably need is cash to release the value of MED2002....but getting the cash from a third party that is trying to keep the price down is tricky to say the least. Hopefully Mr Barder knows someone with deep pockets.<br /><br />

"" They have a $100m revolving credit facility with the bank having 1st charge over the business... I would never say it's not going to happen... You better hope the industry challenges don't result in any significant increase in costs or reductions in revenue doesn't result in them defaulting.."
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Have R1 actually used any of the $100m credit facility?....if they haven't then I doubt it is possible to default on something you haven't actually used. If so it's a misleading statement.

"Just wish Barder would be true to his word and deliver a deal. Promised a deal last December and then by the end of June this year. However, like all AIM share CEOs he can promise the earth, deliver nothing and unfortunately get away with it."
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Jesk, to say that Mr Barder 'promised' a deal may be a little strong IMO. He is unlikely to have promised something that he cannot guarantee to deliver....he's usually very careful with the words he uses. But he did give strong indications that some sort of deal was deliverable....but as ever with negotiations things can go in a diffenert direction to that expected (Brexit being an obvious example)....I was watching 'Local Hero' on TV the other day....excellent film.

Have they actually used the $100m credit facility?

I have an overdraft facility...it don't mean I'm gonna use it.

Credit is cheap at the moment...it makes perfick sense to have a 'facility' just in case....but it doesn't look like they will need it...not with all that lovely cash coming in.

Share buy-backs...dividends....shorters beware!!

£10,000 investment. It may mean they know something positive.....presumably about the funding requirements. Potentially encouraging but nothing is guaranteed with this outfit.

Brassneck, excellent effort.....although I cannot confirm whether it actually holds water (1gw is the guy for that). Probably it relies on a lot of guesstimates (but that's inevitable)....probably more important is the direction of travel and the expectations that things may improve rapidly.

"The company has released quite a bit of good news recently."
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PJ, I seem to have missed the good news recently.....to me there seems to have been silence. Plus there is the unanswered question about the funding the the trials for MED2002. Two things to weigh upon the SP. But I guess you have an alternative explanation in them thar charts of yours. Up, down or a sideways consolidation perhaps? Hawksy has thrown his hat in the ring but it hasn't gone his way....yet! (casting pearls before swine)

PJ, just realised who you are ...PharmaJiles?!

Still trying to teach your 'religion' to the great unwashed....we should get some news soon to 'drive' the share price.

RB, my thinking almost exactly. It all depends on whether 'the family' have the ability and desire to invest millions of £ in Altyn.

The grade of the ore is disappointing and was accompanied by excuses. $200,000 in the bank is unlikely to last too long...perhaps 2-3 months. So a decision on financing will be soon...one way or the other.

Winter months must be tough in Kazakhstan. Lets hope they manage to sort things out.

"So long as there isn't the need for a placing,"
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As TomB posted, the likelihood of some sort of fundraising has been growing IMO. The silence over 'the' negotiations and the question about funding the trials of MED2002.

I would wonder why FUM didn't raise sufficient funds the last time they tapped the market....indeed I though they had. Seems a bit silly now.

Any company they are negotiating with will know the finances of FUM and will use that as a negotiating card to get the best deal for themselves. Pretty obvious IMO. So as Tom has suggested, a cash call may be the only option (to get a good deal for FUM investors). Unfortunately the terms of any placing is unlikely to be good for FUM investors given the current SP.

"Incidentally Oilvlam you may as well come clean too and confess to your other IDs you are using as there will be no escape from the clutches of the BB inspector of IDs."
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Ed, OK you've got me. It's a fair cop, guv. I'm also Malvolio!!

Oilovlam in reverse.Although I haven't actually registered that ID....yet!!

"Only one Eddie !"
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I can think of quite a few Ed's.
- Eddie the Eagle
- Eddie Charlton
- Mister Ed
There could be as many as 5 !!

"Whoops !! I signed that last post twice as Eddie! Hope I am not going to be accused of having Multi-IDs !!!"
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More likely Multi-EDs !!