The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"... if they can get to 100000 a year then the share price i guess wont be 0.5 risk/reward..."
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Agreed. If they get to 100,000 Oz gold per year then the SP will be a lot more than currently. It would be 'nice' to know from management what sort of timescales they have planned to reach that 100,000 production level. Hopefully they will update the market on a more regular basis on their progress....
Kazakh winters are quite difficult for mining....it will also take time to get the equipment they need. So I'm not sure what they have planned for next year...hopefully they have all the major infrastructure ready & working for the increased production levels....after that it should 'just' be about quantity of ore mined, the grade of the ore (which is slightly less than I expected) and the recovery rate (which hopefully keeps improving with increased ore quality).
Altyn could take longer to deliver than some people expect...the company has a long history of not delivering on promises. They also have rather strange priorities on how to spend their cash....spending money on coming off AIM for a full listing and also buying the rights & data for Teren-Sai, where the money could 'possibly' have been invested in the Sekisovskoye underground mine creating a profitable company years ago. Water under the bridge 'perhaps'...but I'm not sure Altyn is a quick multi-bagger.
Kazakhstan is also not without risk, I suspect.
Also Altyn is majority owned (70%) by one family....so we have to trust that they will do what is best for minority shareholders (as well as themselves).
CFO selling shares is always a worry..and a signal to 'some' people. Hopefully it means nothing.
No dividend at the moment...not sure if one is planned. Just as likely is a share buy back.
Good profits will obviously lead to dividends. When they arrive is the big question.
"The Perk business model actually worked until a greedy Ted Hastings sought to further his career and conned R1 into buying it."
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TrickyD, has the Perk side of the business been closed down?
I always thought that the Perk business model was a little 'strange'...something about paying subscribers rewards (cash I suppose) for playing some sort of game & 'presumably' the advertisers would have a captive audience. The big question is why R1 management would think it was a good business model...indeed your response about 'conned R1 into buying it' seems to agree that R1 didn't have their business heads on.
'Hopefully' TRMR's management aren't as gullible or reckless with investors money. R1 management - despite being very well paid - were constantly trying to find excuses for 'jam tomorrow' and were 'probably' searching for someone of vision to lead the business....hence the YUME takeover, followed by TAP.
The SP would suggest that the market is tired of 'jam tomorrow' statements...if they could 'show us the money' (NOT EBITDA, real profits) then TRMR could do OK....however they need to have rid themselves of the fantasists who spent good money buying outfits like PERK (and 'probably' parts of YUME I suspect).
"Or they plan to put the company up for sale."
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They haven't had a merger/takeover/consolidation for a couple months...so one must be due any time now!!
Putting your company up for sale often isn't a good sign...or have I misunderstood.
There was 'talk' with RTHM/YUME about listing on the Nasdaq...but certain criteria have to be met.
RTHM (RythythmmnmOne!) were a serial 'jam tomorrow' company, always promising that the 'next' set of results would be profits...and absurdly talking about inflections points (when there wasn't one) and to use Quantcast figures as a bellweather for RTHM's performance. It all turned out to be hot air.
Indeed just when RTHM had to deliver on their promises they bought YUME...using up most of their cash to pay for YUME to take them over....then just when YUME/RTHM had to deliver on their promises, guess what?....they were taken over by TAPtica....I'm beginning to spot a pattern here!!
I can understand the logic of merging/consolidating small companies in order to create a bigger business...but what seems to have happened (based on Market Cap alone) is that TRMR is far smaller than the individual companies (YUME+RTHM+TAP). It's like a pond of small fish eating each other until one fish is left...and it's actually grown smaller).
Perhaps this just means that TRMR is massively undervalued and at some point profitability will take off (along with the SP). I hope so (because I'm an investor).
At the moment the market obviously sees TRMR as a serial jam tomorrow company...OK is you like jam on your breakfast cereal...I don't. Show me the money...show me some real profits...please!!
"Next set of production figures will be the key to this flying or not..."
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BusterHD, could take a little longer. It will take time to use the investment....equipment takes time to arrange. Also it's the Kazakh winter coming up, making things difficult. But they should be planning for a summer of increased ore mining...after that we should know whether they can deliver on all the talk.
NickelH, it's not whether Altyn are low on cash that's the question? It's the 'parent' company that owns most of the shares (>70%), do they have cash? If they do then I'm sure they would loan some to Altyn at reasonable rates. So to some extent you are scare mongering.
The question for Altyn over the next year or 2 is whether they can get enough ore out of the ground to meet targets and investor expectations.
The only way for Altyn to increase the share price is increased ore production combined with high gold recovery.
Nothing else really matters (IMO).
In 2017 management forecast they would be producing 100,000 ounces this year (2019). The lack of financing has caused the delay...they have resolved that...they now need to start delivering on ore out of the ground & gold production.
TAF, retiredBanker seems to know Altyn pretty well. There are signs that the company could start to increase gold production. But Altyn management have a habit of underperforming. But they should now have the money to invest in production improvements.
Not guaranteed IMO but in theory the returns could be good.
Last year the half year results were on Fri, 31st Aug 2018 at 16:46 (as you pointed out). So if they follow the same routine then it could be today.
When they do come they won't be amazing IMO...but they could tell us if they have any plans for the future...although as usual it should all be taken with a huge pinch of salt. Perhaps one day they may pleasantly surprise investors....it would be a first.
Always worries me when a company does that sort of thing. Could be seen as trying to bury poor results, hoping everybody will forget come Monday morning. Although I suppose it could 'just' be the time difference between here and Kazakhstan.
Big thing will be how much money is left in the bank...and of course news on additional finance for the mine(s).