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This is going to start affecting their HODL as BTC tanks.

Yes i do, I think it will be a great investment but in the current market conditions it will suffer just like any other asset. I reckon sub 5 will be the ultimate capitulation. Read my infrequent posts from late last year early this year and you'll see I was right in my predictions.

Haha ... I'm sure if you're a holder you'll not be a smiler for much longer. I really hope ARB survive as i believe in BTC but this is just dreadful you have to admit that.

Sorry to say but we're in fantasy land here now. The new anonymous backer has either been sold a pup or is remaining anonymous until a time when all assets transfer to them when ARB finally dies. Who is buying the machines? The same backer? Their numbers quite simply don't add up. BTC will drop below $10k very soon, is unlikely to recover in 2023 and whatever recovery we see in 2024 will be slow and steady. This means that their profitability will diminish further. This is literally the last throw of the dice and it is a punt on the future. I'm a BTC bull but a realistic one and in this worsening market BTC will be the last asset to come back. Back to single figures like I said a few months back.

Is where this is heading if not zero. I’ve changed my opinion based upon their breakeven. I hope they have sufficient to survive 2023 and 2024. If they do then great, but we’re heading down to 2020 levels for share price here.

Long Live Argo!

The FED has to maintain stable prices and currently it isn't. Tech's higher earnings could be bad news in that sense. They will increase rates in March but one of the Q's in the Q&A asked about a potentially higher than expected rise which he didn't rule out. So there will be a rate hike but no one knows how much. 0.1, 0.5%? Inflation pressures are still filtering through too so it's not transitory either. The over inflated no profit making tech firms have already lost up to 90% of their ath the rest of the market has the potential to follow, perhaps not as far but drop nevertheless. BTC not being immune.

I’ll stick my neck out and suggest we won’t see $40k for a while. $38-39 now confirmed resistance and the FED meeting results has made me think BTC will actually drop harder and quicker than originally thought.

At this rate ARB's profit from the potential sale of Pluto will be more than the value of their HODL. Hope the Labs arm is not overly exposed in risky projects with the 10% HODL they're using. This fear is different to May -July this is not bouncing for a while. This is not a Wyckoff accumulation it's a dump.

I've crunched the numbers and the estimate I shouted a few weeks back (for which I was battered) is back to $4.80 ARBK or £0.36 ARB. I would imagine we'd see this by Q2 2022 at the earliest. This is provided that there's not a black swan and the current overall market fear starts to subside by then with all over leveraged finally cleared out. If there is a back swan, well who knows but hopefully we'll just get a plain capitulation event triggering a trend shift.

10% increase in difficulty means I’m adjusting my valuation calcs down again. Probably start averaging in at 50p if macros change for the better.

Why do so many people seem sure BTC is heading lower?

It's still linked with wider markets whether you agree or not so the market psychology still applies regardless of the back story. This is one of, if not THE most volatile and risky asset class and therefore the first to dump. I'm in the 'dotcom' comparison camp at the moment and only follow ARB for what I think is a miner or blockchain company with great potential in coming years.

Is this the wave of FUD gathering pace to cause a capitulation event in coming weeks/months? Same as May '21 same as many times before. Surely soon this will have no effect.

I should have said at $10k rather than under and perhaps break even as the profit at that level would be minimal. I can't see BTC hitting $10k either but can see it low 20's high teens especially if we get another black swan event (perhaps the financial fallout from fiscal measures taken during Covid). We'll see. I'm completely on the sidelines atm waiting for a clearer (perhaps not cheaper) entry point here. I got kicked on this board recently when I suggested 36p as a base but the maths is there if you look. One last thing for me is that ARB I think played a blinder in 2021 with where the prices they managed to raise cash. Hopefully the 3.8Eh will materialise this year perhaps with additional debt rather than a low priced placement but even if it doesn't the foundations are there.

I think that being realistic with this share is important. There's plenty to be positive about but until DeFi etc. evolve further and uptake is more, then ARB is highly dependant to BTC. This is 90+% retail owned. The institutions who have bought in are now likely to be all underwater. Saylor holding BTC for me is a red flag, just Google Michael Saylor dot com bubble. If we do get a short lived pump in BTC to say $50k then this will be an opportunity to get out of here as BTC looks to be heading south in the coming months. I do think though that based upon recent share price action from the $69k high this opportunity has passed. ARB should be OK though as they're trading and developing strategies as part of their diversification and even with BTC below $10k they're profitable. I do think they'll ride the coming storm and come out well positioned. Although they have appeared disorganised over the last 18 months they have learned by their mistakes and are becoming stronger.

Interesting RNS that. It would be great if PW started to report on progress made in this area. Hadn't their HODL increased recently separate from mining? I'm optimistic they are communicating this as their efforts in that area must be going well. It would be good to get an update on Pluto too.

One thing to have with this share I've learned is to keep a clear head and an open mind. ARB is definitely heading in the right direction but PW's mantra of months and years is correct. It has a very bright future. BTC though could plummet to where it started this bull run, as it has on previous cycles. The wider market has dropped this last few weeks and growth stocks are the culprits and casualties. I did think that 36p was on the cards a few weeks back (got kicked on this board for that opinion) but the maths shows that with BTC worst case but I think I'll be happy with 52p as a starting point. Having said that I could be completely wrong and the Wyckoff fractal printed in the summer could be what's happening now and BTC could jump to ath. The wider market though I don' think indicates this. This is a company still in early stages of development and positioning itself well for any bear market and the risk for me is diminishing but I will be looking for a better value entry point.

Does anyone know if Argo have sufficient funds to get to 3.7Eh by Q4 2022 without further dilution?

I have no axe to grind at all but have come to my conclusions from research and maths. There's loads of great research out there which if digested properly can help in making decisions. I am long term bullish on ARB despite the carp we have put up with this year. The figures I have for 2022-3 are mind blowing so imo holders will be just fine. BTC and ARB will be volatile for a while but when the dust starts to settle hopefully ARB will shine.

36p when BTC hits the bottom. Don't forget the last 80p dip was when there was only 356m shares, there's now 427m I think. The HODL and PtH increase does not cover the Mcap gap created by dilution yet.