Member Info for ocelot

Neither Loxley nor Turkey are in the share price.

The share price has been beaten down by successive disappointments, but who can justify the company's current paltry valuation?

We saw around Easter how very quickly the market can change in UKOG and how very quickly the share price can rise.

Continue to believe the share price movement around Easter was a trial run for what is to come.

Are opinions posted on this board representative of shareholders' opinions?

No, they are not.

Why is that?

In part, it's because you don't have to be a shareholder to post your opinion.

And In part, it's because those with negative opinions appear to be far more active than those with positive or neutral opinions.

Guess you mean 7-8p.

That's very ambitious, I would be happy to see us at 1p or 2p in the not-too-distant future, but, agreed, their portfolio of assets contains very substantial potential and their prospects are very exciting.

6 thumbs up for Joker99's post as of now.

Thanks to Rodders Jones, we all know now that negative opinions are enormously over-represented on this board by comparison to shareholders' opinions (by a factor of more than 10, I would guess), in part, of course, because you can post a negative opinion without being a shareholder.

... and so is a market cap of £100m, ... just not quite yet!

With Rodders Jones's proposed resolutions and the GM of 07/06, think some of the naysayers have got into a bit of a tizzy recently, confusing their desires with reality.

Personally, looking forward to the next developments re Basur-3 and its funding.

Personally, quite happy to know there are potential buyers waiting in the wings, ... it may not take very much for them to buy!

Their exercise will depend upon the prevailing share price.

The facts remain that:
1/ there is a well to be drilled; and
2/ UKOG continues to give the impression it is in no great hurry to raise new funds.

There's another factor which may accelerate the company's growth at a later stage: while the share price remains as down in the dumps as it is, there can be no question of share-financed acquisitions. That will change when the share price better reflects the company's potential.

Just playing with figures:

if we take the average of management's prudential discount for Lidsey and geothermal, that reduces 100 to 15.

If we then apply the market's discount of 82%, that reduces 15 to 2.7.

How to obtain 100 for 2.7!

Available on the company's site under Media/Presentations:

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/presentations/

Confirmation that GL spoke of:
60% of management time being devoted to geothermal in the last 12 months, while the debt facility work was ongoing;
being tempted by gas prices to begin production for 2 months before undertaking the sidetrack.

Original CPR worked on c. 39p/therm. Presently gains from mix of
hedged (43p) and unhedged (average forward 48p) prices offsets higher
capex and associated funding costs

re Lidsey:

With depth conversion, the revised
structure indicates a substantially larger
reservoir area than that which gave rise
to 9.7m bbl OOIP

Reinterpretation of of existing lines indicates larger reservoir area.
Consideration of further competent person update.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/upload/SponsorFile/File/2021_06/1623963799_ANGUS-ENERGY-PROACTIVE-(1).pdf

So the company itself applies prudential discounts to its valuations of Lidsey and geothermal of, respectively, 80% and 90% and the market then adds its own discount of about another 82%: it doesn't come much cheaper than that!

GL's presentation itself (before questions) runs for 18 mins from 1h 34.

The Lidsey valuation of £15m is after adjustment for a prudential discount of 80%, so £75m before adjustment.

The geothermal valuation of £8m is after adjustment for a prudential discount of 90%, so £80m before adjustment.

.

They've posted a Proactive forum under Media/News on their website, but it doesn't appear to be the right one.

Think (not sure about this) GL said geothermal is where about 60% of management time had gone during the last year. In that case, we are already, effectively, talking about a geothermal company with additional assets in Saltfleetby and Lidsey.