Member Info for ocelot

It's not impossible, FOMO can come into play and everybody can see that the share price has come down a very long way and stayed down for a long time.

Barchart: 80% BUY today:

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/UKOG.LN/opinion

Topps Tiles’ discount unjustified, says Peel Hunt

Peel Hunt is struggling to see why Topps Tiles (TPT) is trading at a discount to the sector and says there is scope for upgrades.

Analyst John Stevenson retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 100p on the stock after a third quarter trading update showed that the retail rebound continues. The shares closed down 0.7%, or 0.5p, at 71.4p on Wednesday.

‘Topps shares are trading on a financial year 2022 price/earnings [ratio] of just 10.7x, with scope for upgrades,’ said Stevenson.

The analyst said the group’s plan for taking £1 in every £5 spent on tiles in the UK within five years ‘would see the shares on 7x price/earnings’.

‘Given the group’s strong balance sheet and dominant market positioning, we struggle to see why the shares trade on a discount to the wider sector, more so given the attractive yield characteristics,’ said Stevenson.

UKOG's share price is low because expectations are low. It will rise when expectations rise.

It is for each investor to determine their own expectations.

Agreed, Mullins.

Turkey: Basur-3 drilling update #2

UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that following completion of the Basur-3 appraisal well's initial 17 1/2 inch diameter hole section, 133/8 inch casing has now been set, successfully cemented down to a drilled depth of 367 m (1204 ft) below surface and pressure tested. Following setting of blow out preventers, drilling will then resume in 12 1/4 inch hole section, the base of which is planned to penetrate the Garzan limestone, the first of two target horizons...

Crude inventories in the U.S. are falling at the fastest rate in decades as demand continues to rebound, prompting a rally in the oil futures market.

Over the last four weeks total stockpiles, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen at a rate of 1.15 million barrels a day marking the largest four-week decline on a rolling basis in Energy Information Administration Data going back to 1982. Meanwhile, Nymex calendar spreads rallied Wednesday, with the September West Texas Intermediate futures contract rising to $1 a barrel premium over October for the second time this month, pointing to expectations for ongoing supply tightness through the summer.

The record rate of drawdowns underscore the strength of the U.S. oil demand recovery just ahead of a critical meeting between OPEC and its allies on Thursday to debate a potential output increase...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/u-s-crude-stocks-are-falling-at-record-rates-as-demand-surges?sref=Em01M8Hr

But you (and LS) may remember this (most recent) mention ...
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Penguins, now that you've reminded me of it, yes, I do.

https://drillordrop.com/2021/06/30/ukog-protest-injunction-granted-against-five-campaigners/

... we believe that success in Turkey could dramatically improve the Company's financial strength in the near term due to the sheer magnitude of the potential prize and the ability to rapidly monetise a successful well. (the annual accounts RNS of 16/04/21)

Revenue of £721k in the first half.

Since then, flows have more or less stabilised but the price of oil has risen above the average oil price for that half, so revenues should have increased.

... an eye popping 0.72m million of sales revenue in 6 months and a £2 million annual loss.
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Thought the line sounded odd, you mean an annualised loss!

There are no guarantees, as HH and Broadford Bridge have shown, but the truth is the board do have:

"extensive international oil and gas connections giving access to opportunities";

"the depth and breadth of experience to rapidly assess such opportunities and make timely decisions".

To survive and prosper it is vital to stay ahead of the game and to create fresh opportunities to give a platform for future growth. We are well positioned in this respect, with the Board's extensive international oil and gas connections giving access to opportunities, which is how our Turkey acquisition came to pass. The board also has the depth and breadth of experience to rapidly assess such opportunities and make timely decisions. Indeed, our Turkish acquisition was sought after by other competitors, but UKOG was experienced and nimble enough to take the deal on favourable terms ahead of the pack.

The opening paragraph is punchy:

The Company's Annual Report, published in mid-April, revealed a change in focus and ambition, reflecting my vision to transform UKOG into an international energy business. Because of the challenging and unprecedented times, the Board felt it was vital to have a step-change and expand our horizons...

Agreed, good RNS, the tone is positive and confident.

... On a two-year basis, Retail like-for-like sales increased by 12.9% over the third quarter as a whole, and were up 18.5% in the eleven weeks since the stores fully re-opened...

We remain positive on the trading outlook for remainder of the financial year, and are well positioned to take advantage of increased consumer confidence and spending as we focus on our market share goal of '1 in 5 by 2025'*."

Seems to have a better"feel" about it these last few days, as if the selling may have arrived near its end.

Don't know when the share price will start to move up and can make no predictions, having got this wrong in the past.

But remain convinced all the elements are in place to support a very hefty rise in the share price, a rise which is likely to continue for the long term.

Looking at the 2-year graph, if it builds up a head of steam, it's got a long way to go.