Member Info for ocelot

Once the loan is clear,what would be the penalty costs to break the hedge as a rule of thumb. Thanks. Asked on 2 May 2022

There are not necessarily any significant penalty costs involved however the commercial cost is the difference between the forward curve prices for the period from the date at which the hedge is broken to the date of the scheduled maturity of the hedge versus the fixed hedge contract prices over that same period.

Thus the cost can only be known at the time the hedge counterparties determine to break or “counter hedge” it. In effect we would be taking out a new hedge for the residual period and amount but in the opposite direction – i.e. currently we are promising to supply Y therms for X pence/therm and to break the hedge we would be promising to buy Y therms for Z pence/therm. Z being the new forward curve prices and X being the original hedge contract prices.

In practice it would only make sense if we were interested in engaging in dynamic hedging – i.e. we felt we could do better trading in and out of positions over short contract months than the market. Generally speaking this is best described as gambling unless you have a large book of varied supply and distribution obligations and wish to balance it out in aggregate. At present we do not.

Share your thoughts, SOUSAV.

The share has suffered alongside the successive setbacks suffered by UKOG's projects, but:

1/ the company has no real financial debt worth talking about and can raise new funds from the market when it needs to;

2/ has in, above all, Loxley's pre-planned farm-out programme and Basur-Resan, 2 potential company-making projects where news is anticipated in the near term.

The truth is via 2 successive placings, UKOG's cash position has recently improved by (£1.25m + £3.0m =) £4.25m.

With both Basur-Resan and the pre-planned farm-out of Loxley on the short-term horizon, UKOG is looking better-placed today than it has in a long time (imho).

You can believe what you like Ocelot, however the current facts point towards early bankruptcy
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I associate bankruptcy with borrowings a company is unable to repay. UKOG's borrowings at 31/03/22 total £3.092m and consist of advances by non-controlling interests to HHDL. It is UKOG which controls HHDL and the repayment of those advances.

So I definitely do not believe the current facts point to the early bankruptcy of UKOG.

Agreed, hamsters.

The original prediction of the derampers, in 2019, was that the OGA would not approve of the assignment of the licence to Angus and of its operatorship.

The situation has been completely transformed since then (and the derampers proven to be completely wrong).

Personally, very comfortable with any present uncertainties, they are nothing by comparison with those of the past.

Barchart's arrived at a 100% sell this morning.

Given that barchart's opinion is derived from the immediate past's technical figures, that may be a buy signal:

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/UKOG.LN/opinion

Of course they can move on. What do other investors do when they incur a big loss? One encounters the expression very frequently on these boards, they put the investment in the bottom drawer and ... move on.

How is it possible to still be "angry" after all of this time?

Aren't those concerned more likely to be indulging themselves and manufacturing their own anger in order to act as trolls on this board?

DoneK,

True.

I have most of the derampers on filter but I'm sure they are happy to admit that gas is now flowing and the price of natural gas has, therefore, become relevant.

It's only a little more than a week since the last placing, but that placing removes a source of concern for shareholders, because it was originally expected to be announced by the first half of November.

The share has been liberated, therefore, to reflect developments in its business, principally, Loxley's pre-planned farm-out programme and Basur-Resan.

Hopefully, the future is looking brighter.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351153

“but over the years the SP (and those 'negative' posters) illustrates the reality of the projects”
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Not really. From 0.80p in mid 2017, the price rose to 11p only returning to 0.80p in early 2020. The negative posters were, therefore, hopelessly wrong for 2 1/2 years.

During the following 2 1/2 years, they've been right.

There remains the future.

Yes, very clear, wants to get the market cap up to £100m in order to attract IIs.

£100m market cap, here we come.

From Drill or Drop's June 22 oil production article:

Brockham, in Surrey, recorded oil production for the first month since October 2018. In June 2022, the field produced 5.66 barrels of oil per day and a total of 27m3 (22.5 tonnes). Water production was higher than oil at 53.1m3.

https://drillordrop.com/2022/09/20/latest-onshore-oil-production-june-2022/

Drill or Drop's article on Igas of yesterday includes some indications of sources of funding for geothermal projects:

Geothermal

IGas described geothermal as a “truly competitive solution in a landscape of increased gas prices”. It said:

“We firmly believe that deep geothermal is the only utility scale source of renewable heat suitable for deployment in urban areas.”

The company said it had applied for a capital grant for its Stoke-on-Trent geothermal project from the Green Heat Network Fund. A decision was expected in the last quarter of the year.

It also planned to apply for grant funding from the Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme to support six geothermal schemes supplying renewable heat to NHS trusts.

IGas said it was in discussions with 15 parties who want to buy geothermal energy, amounting to 100MW installed heat generation from 15 separate sites.

https://drillordrop.com/2022/09/15/e-midlands-fracks-could-supply-3m-homes-in-a-year-and-be-less-prone-to-earthquakes-igas/

Drill or Drop article on the replacement of Igas's CEO, Igas having been mentioned by some posters as a potential candidate to farm into Loxley:

https://drillordrop.com/2022/09/15/igas-ceo-leaves-immediately/

George Lucan reckons Angus shareholders are "sitting on a gold mine" ... and this is the gentleman who has called Loxley an "attractive asset" (his style is almost always to be conservative and understated).

In very broad terms, GL reckons they are sitting on £1/2 a billion of gas (he is being conservative: given current prices, it is not difficult for an outside commentator to revise that figure upwards).

The stock remains grossly undervalued.

In fact, in his 2nd interview of this morning, on lse, Angus's George Lucan is sounding confident about gas prices over the next 5-10 years (although he's not saying they will remain as high as we've seen recently).

Reckons gas prices are very high on the forward curve right out to '25.

Gearing up to make acquisitions focusing on gas.