Member Info for ocelot

It's 54% not 48%. The distinction is important because 54% means Alba holds the majority and GROC is, therefore, a subsidiary of Alba and is consolidated in Alba's group accounts.

Morgan Stanley raised its price estimates for liquefied natural gas in 2023 and 2024, seeing Europe’s soaring demand for the fuel intensifying global competition for supplies.

The continent looks set to cope this winter even as Russia cut gas exports to the minimum, but next year the supply crunch really could bite. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer when the continent will be refilling storage, while China’s demand will recover from lockdowns to offset lower imports from other Asian buyers. And supplies are lagging behind.

“We see a rising deficit next year,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note. “We see the need for prices to remain elevated for longer to continue constraining demand.” ...

That echoes comments from top LNG producers, which see the market getting even tighter next year, and remaining short of supply until at least the mid-2020s ...

... Prices for wood pellets have nearly doubled to 600 euros a ton in France, and there are signs of panic buying of the world’s most basic fuel. Hungary even went so far as to ban exports of pellets, and Romania capped firewood prices for six months. Meanwhile, wood stoves can now take months to deliver ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-08/firewood-demand-is-surging-as-europeans-return-to-world-s-oldest-fuel?srnd=premium-europe&sref=Em01M8Hr

The Daily Telegraph: The Rough gas storage site is yet to get up and running ahead of winter, as talks drag on between its owners and the Government over a long-term funding deal.

The Daily Telegraph: The Rough gas storage site is yet to get up and running ahead of winter, as talks drag on between its owners and the Government over a long-term funding deal.

Director's Dealing

The Company has been informed that Paul Forrest, Non-Executive Director, on 30 September 2022 sold 6,500,000 Ordinary Shares of 0.002p each ("Ordinary Shares") at an average price of 2.2 pence per Ordinary Share. Paul Forrest's total shareholding in the Company is now 538,750,000 Ordinary Shares representing 19.49 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital.

It's just a brief pause, which could be interrupted by Balcombe news at any time.

In the meantime, the market can become accustomed to thinking of Angus as gas-producing and cash-generating.

https://acp.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/ViewCase.aspx?Caseid=3282246&CoID=0

Good things to come (hopefully!):
1/ Basur-Resan update;
2/ Loxley farm-out update;
3/ concerns Angus but could have positive impact here, too: decision re Balcombe appeal any time now re ewt of horizontal well into the Kimmeridge.
Good things achieved:
1/ recent placings totalling £4.25m;
2/ arrival of new government keen to encourage energy independence.
Bad things:
Are of an historic nature, successive setbacks in, above all, the Weald.

Loxley's gross value, at, say, 400p per therm, is in the range of c£1.78bn to c£2.9bn, from which need to be deducted, in order to arrive at a net present value:

1/ development and operating costs;
2/ the necessary discount to allow for the time-value of money.

But the truth is that when UKOG's market cap is only about £13m, these kind of considerations become academic, because no matter what adjustments to gross value are made, it is very clear that Loxley's potential value is very many multiples of the market cap.

Yes, when the company:

1/ is sitting on a potential gas field with a gross value, at, say, 400p per therm, in the range of c£1.78bn to c£2.9bn;

2/ has a market cap of c£13m;

there is an anomaly of a magnitude which is likely to attract the attention of investors and traders alike.

When the derampers post a lot of posts in quick succession, one scrolls back to see if there is a post they are trying to bury. This is the reason I am re-posting my post of of 15:18 below:

Just to follow up on my earlier posts of 08:37 and 08:49:

"As a consequence, and as stated at the inquiry, this is why UKOG has earmarked the 43-70 billion cubic
feet of independently estimated recoverable gas at Loxley ..." (SS's letter to Jeremy Hunt of 10/06/22).

at 400p per therm, the mid-point of the range, of 56.5 billion cubic feet, gave a valuation of c£2.3bn.

If, instead, we calculate the range of the valuation, then, at 400p per therm, it comes to a range of c£1.78bn to c£2.9bn.

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG%20Jeremy%20Hunt%20MP%20100622.pdf

Just to follow up on my earlier posts of 08:37 and 08:49:

"As a consequence, and as stated at the inquiry, this is why UKOG has earmarked the 43-70 billion cubic
feet of independently estimated recoverable gas at Loxley ..." (SS's letter to Jeremy Hunt of 10/06/22).

at 400p per therm, the mid-point of the range, of 56.5 billion cubic feet, gave a valuation of c£2.3bn.

If, instead, we calculate the range of the valuation, then, at 400p per therm, it comes to a range of c£1.78bn to c£2.9bn.

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG%20Jeremy%20Hunt%20MP%20100622.pdf

A better idea might be to invest the equivalent of her share of legal costs in Angus, imho.

A poster produced a calculation a few days back.

From memory, outstanding warrants totalled about 45-50m (excluding the warrants issued to family offices earlier this year, which are valid for 5 years and where it is assumed the holders may not be in any hurry to exercise them).

Loxley, Basur-Resan, but also ...

If Angus's Balcombe appeal goes their way, then interest in prospects for the Kimmeridge will be reactivated. The decision could be announced any time now.

In voting against Angus's application for an ewt of their horizontal well (which flowed most encouragingly for an initial brief time-period). W Sussex's planning committee went against the recommendation of their own planning officers.

Have now put WG818 on filter.

WG818 was the last of the long standing derampers I've filtered.

Agreed, ells_valexpert.

The prize is potentially of a size to generate considerable interest amongst potential farminees.

One thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas equals 1.037 MMBtu, or 10.37 therms.

So, say, the mid-point of the range of 56.5 billion cubic feet/1,000 = 56.5 Mcf x 10.37 = 585.9m therms.

At, say, 400p a therm = c£2.3bn.

Reminder of the size of the potential gas field at Loxley, extracted from SS's letter to Jeremy Hunt (the local MP) of 10/06/22:

As a consequence, and as stated at the inquiry, this is why UKOG has earmarked the 43-70 billion cubic
feet of independently estimated recoverable gas at Loxley ...

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG%20Jeremy%20Hunt%20MP%20100622.pdf