peak oil demand is nowhere in sight15 Dec 2022 12:16
Bloomberg opinion piece, some extracts:In energy and commodities, there’s stuff that’s always at least 10 years away. Fusion energy is one; asteroid mining is another. And so is peak oil demand. The problem is that a decade goes by, the prediction doesn’t come true, the goalposts are moved further out, and everyone forgets about the old predictions ...
For now, if a peak in oil demand is near, it’s not showing in any contemporaneous data or reliable short- and medium-term forecasts. Only long-term models — rather than forecasts — point to a peak. Everything else shows steady-as-it-goes consumption.
Take the International Energy Agency’s short-term oil market report. Earlier today, it said demand will climb to almost 104 million barrels a day by the end of 2023, well above the previous peak of 102 million barrels set in mid-2019. That’s even though commuting — a huge source of gasoline and diesel demand in both the US and Europe — has changed forever, with work-from-home set to stay, at least partially, in many white-collar professions.
The IEA forecasts global oil demand growing next year by a hefty 1.7 million barrels a day — despite exorbitant prices, rising interest rates, sharply slowing economic growth and the lingering impact of Covid-19 in Asia.
To be sure, all the data since 2020 is polluted by the effect of the pandemic on travel patterns. But still, it’s difficult to see any sign pointing to a zenith. To achieve the Holy Grail of peak oil demand, first the world needs to show signs that consumption growth is starting to slow down — and quite materially. That’s yet to happen.
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