Member Info for Numbers

The spot prices of the PGMs aren't that significant during sale negotiations. What EUA and any potential bidders will be doing is estimating/guessing/crystal ball gazing into what the average price of Pt is over about the next decade. It will take about a decade to mine and process all the ore to extract the metals at Monchetundra. There is now a significant demand for palladium and demand has been exceeding supply for a couple of years now. The big supply deficit has lead to the crazy price rises. Even if mining at full capacity, the chances are there is still going to be a deficit over the next few years, as demand for Pd is still ramping up as Chinese cars need larger cats to meet more stringent emission limits. Pd is likely to stay at record highs for 3 years or so, but may fall back slightly once supply has caught up with demand. After that the price is likely to start coming down again. The big challenge is how to estimate what Pd is likely to do over the medium term. Most of the experts had been underestimating the rise in the price of Pd in the last year. If you look back at various 2019 forecasts you see they said Pd would reach over $2000 per oz and some optimists were forecasting $2400 or possibly even $2500 in 2020. Even the optimistic figures were low, as Pd was over $2900 in February 2020!

EUA have perfect timing with marketing their their assets as Pd continues to rocket upwards! This isn't just lucky timing, as the directors have been in this game for over 2 decades so will know what they are doing!

I am really hoping that EUA do make some form of deal announcement during the conference, as the directors will be put on the spot and will be have to field difficult questions from conference attendees regarding the EUA suspension etc.

Tilly the language is probably Mandarin. You could try to teach it how to play the mandolin... :-)

Popeye62, I like to hear all views people have about a share and reading the LSE BB is useful to get information on the company via the RNS and reading the views of some long-term posters. If I researched a company and decided that the share price wasn't likely to move upwards I would then move along and look for another company to invest in to make money. It is okay to have a contrarian view but why choose to personally short a company? IMO shorters are worse than constant rampers because they make their money by betting against companies. The more trouble a company gets into the bigger profit for the shorter - a morally wrong thing to do IMO.

As a shorter you are betting against decent and honest LTIs in a company as well as the employees of that company. You were then saying you felt sorry for people in MTRO that have lost money, but that doesn't make sense to me as your short bet is part of the reason why they have lost money! IMO decent, honest people wouldn't place bets on businesses failing.

I think the MTRO BB is quite tolerant of shorters when compared with some other BBs. Shorters on EUA would be keelhauled and then be made to walk the plank!

What made you choose the name Popeye62, as Popeye is a good guy. Was Bluto62 taken? :-)

Figgsey - I know the feeling. All my cash is tied up so I'm now robbing Peter to pay Paul in my portfolio during this period of volatility. I was over 50% up on KIE before the market slump and now took 30% profit to buy MTRO at (hopefully) near the bottom.

I hope I did the right thing today, but I sold my KIE shares at 130p with the intention of topping up on MTRO. I set a limit buy for 174p and the transaction wasn't executed despite the price heading well below 170p. When the order finally went through at 10:12 the price paid was 167.6p. I've never seen transactions taking that long to go through once the limit buy priced was crossed. The broker is ii and perhaps they were swamped with buy orders with all the bargain shares out there...

Newtothisgame2, this doesn't indicate that gulagescapee has multiple usernames as they were previously posting on the SOU BB under the same name. After all, how would a random user from SOU recognise gulagescapee on the EUA BB under a completely different name? They had to be using the same username or they had such a distinctive style they could tell that it was a single person using multiple usernames.

The Motley Fool have a common formula that they work on. They pick a share that has significantly dropped recently and ask whether now is the time to buy it. They then look at the pros and cons, but usually say they cast doubt on the share and then recommend another completely different share almost like a bait and switch. I've seen this loads of times over the years. Here is an example from last year and you can see that they didn't make a good call:
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/08/02/tempted-by-the-iag-share-price-and-7-yield-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
Their summary for IAG was "Although I’m tempted by its forecast dividend yield of 7%, I wouldn’t buy these shares at the moment." They then said RBS was a better bet.

IAG share price at the end of August 2019 was 422p and RBS was 185p. I bought IAG in mid Aug when they were 437p so it hadn't quite hit the bottom when I bought. IAG hit a high of 684p within 6 months (I sold a bit early at 648p for over 45% profit and got the dividend). If you'd bought at 422p timed the high perfectly you could made over 60% profit and had the dividend.

RBS peaked at 274p, giving a potential profit of 48% and a dividend - not bad but not as good as the share they didn't recommend!

Also MF have dozens of writers that that generate articles. When reading up about share X I'm considering I sometimes get 2 MF hits for that share on the same month written by 2 different people - one guy says it is worth buying and the other says it isn't that good and you should consider share Y instead! I take all MF articles with a pinch of salt

Going to 700p via the scenic route. I've just bought in at just under 580p.

Bob's punctuation and quality of content still has massive room for improvement though! :-)

I've never wanted to short a company and shorters actively picking on companies and forcing its share price down are more than a bit naughty. There are loads of companies out there, so if something puts you off investing in one then there is bound to be another that you find is worth investing in.

I knew that shorting companies can be riskier than buying shares, but that video taught me a few other risks that shorters face that I didn't know about. I think I'll stick to buying shares in companies that have the potential for their share price to rise.

Thanks Amers. That's given me a longing for a long video on going long now! :-)

Lamtree made the following comment on 2nd Feb when EUA was 3.45p.
"I'm the opposite Bellers,I really wouldnt want to be in this when the RNs drops.
If this share can hit 4p I will confidently short."

That was definitely a bad call and I think/hope for them they just made this shorting statement just to wind us up. 3rd of February and EUA share price is 4.525p when Lamtree made a final flurry of posts.

His sign-off post on EUA was "Cant seem to find out why the spike,it surely cant be on ACFs presentation thats been paraphrased for years.?"

Lamtree must still be trying to work out what caused what he/she was calling a spike, but turned out to be the start of a sustained rise above 7p. Not surprised they haven't made a comment during this time - their gob must have been truly smacked in the week before suspension...

Lamtree is still winding up the BT guys telling them what a dog of a share they have bought into - averaging over 5 posts per day over the past month. Their MO seems to be to pick a share with a strong or almost fanatical following and pull holes in the share and bring up any negative points with it. I actually liked some of Lamtree's posts and some of their points have been valid over the years (I was previously a BT "investor" but bailed out at a loss to give a chance to make up the deficit on other shares). I don't want to hear continual ramping and I believe that Lamtree himself/herself genuinely believed what they were saying (although they do seem to take pleasure in winding rampers up).

They also voted "No" to the takeover offer at Sirius Minerals so it looks like they backed the wrong miner...

I don't think Lamtree will comment on this EUA BB again unless a completely unexpected RNS drops as they will come on and say "I told you so!"

With Interactive Investor the price is still quoted at 7.1p and showing under my investments.

SL100 - There are 485 million MTFB shares, so the current mcap is around £630K. I cannot remember all the facts and figures from 1 year + ago and our friend SP250 has generated lots of posts to trawl through so it it would take ages to search back through them. There were a few knowledgeable guys including doctors and a guy called something like IvySpivey who knew about medical trials. Taking a drug to stage 3 trials costs $100s of millions. MTFB spent this money to get Iclaprim to stage 3 with FDA. The FDA voiced their concerns about not enough tests done on liver toxicity tests, so more stage 3 trials need to conducted before there was a chance of approval. I'm not in the medical field, but I didn't think liver toxicity was that big a problem. Okay we only have 1 liver, but if the drug doesn't kill a patient (from what I remember nobody died taking it) the liver repairs itself after a recovery period. So further stage 3 trials were necessary - might take 1 year + to conduct and cost $200m but MTFB don't have enough funds.

If a big pharma comes along, drug has passed most of stage 3 - just might need to spend another $200m to ensure drug isn't overly toxic to the livers of patients. How much is a big pharma likely to pay for Iclaprim and all the current stage 1-3 research/test results that may have already cost $500m or more? I don't know, but they probably want to get it as cheap as possible!

485 million shares at 1p each would cost anybody interested in Iclaprim around £5m. So is Iclaprim and maybe $500m worth of research worth £5m, £10m, £15m or £20m? Is there anybody even interested in Iclaprim at any cost? That is the current £630K question!

OK Kettle, I bought 55,777 shares to add to the original 22,000 LTH. It cost £80 and brought my average buying price down from around 13p to 0.4p.

I might actually make a few quid if a miracle happens and a buyer comes along. If not it is another £80 lost at the AIM casino.

I caught this falling knife at around 200p just over a month ago and I think the timing could be pretty good. People had mentioned it perhaps dropping to 180p so there was maybe a 10% downside. The potential upside is much greater and I was already almost 15% up before it dropped back again.

I've been targeting companies that look to be oversold and where the potential up is much more than the potential down. Also bought into KIE at 100p last month and this is up almost 50%. Unfortunately I bought the same amount of shares in each company, so invested twice as much money in MTRO than in KIE as I thought this had the better upside!

My average price is 100p so now showing a good paper profit. Buying in at 60p would have been even better, but if I'd bought at that price I'd have probably already sold up and taken the profit.

I'd normally bank some of the paper profit now, but there still looks like plenty of growth in Kier share price in the short term.

Saga have sold a non-core part of the business. Let's hope this helps give the Saga share price another upwards push today.

I'm not seeing pop-ups. It sounds like your device has picked up a PUP (potentially unwanted program). You probably went to a compromised site or some adware program has been part of a downloaded program and has installed on your device. Try running Malwarebytes or a decent anti-virus scan.

One good tip is to google something like "IAG share price forecast" and this will bring up a few websites with broker forecasts for the next 12 months. I use hl.co.uk and the brokers are have set a 12 month target of between 700p and 792p for IAG. I would think that the share price will be somewhere above 800p in 2 years.

This isn't financial advice and I currently don't hold IAG shares, although I have owned some within the last few months (sold at 649p) and I'm still tempted to buy back in if there is a significant dip. Almost bought IAG about 2 weeks ago, but opted for SAGA instead. Both shares are up circa 10% in this time.