Hi SOG,
Now the wider investment market needs to recognise the opportunity - the next RNS for topline data is critical, Sareum need to go all out. I would prefer proceeds if the raise to go into PR for topline data than SDC1802 to be honest.
Give Elon some money Tim, or get Jeb Keiper on the board for a 12month fixed term advisory role. What a message that would send!
Evening all investors. I think we all knew the WRAP would be oversubscribed, and the calls for why we didn't do this before are warrented. I think this still goes back to the MHRA as to the main reason for the threats on the financials - I think the BoD had high confidence in that being approved, if you recall - we paid trial design "experts" for months and I'm sure John knows his way aorund the MHRA as he does with the patent board, for those that have seen the patent discussions from years back will remeber the level of competence John portrayed, in the end - winning the argument for compound differentiation (if my memory is correct).
The opportunity was (IMO) lined up, get the MHRA approval (Nailed On, so it seemed), then do the placing of shares in the multple of £'s. Everyone is a winner and the board would have been the best thing since sliced bread.
Albeit, that's not how it played out for unknown reasons, potentially one of the scenario's I've read below, I'm sure Sareum still don't know. But in the world of multi-billion pound deals nothing is off the table.
So the treat to finanacing continued as we seen it play out until today when I now believe we have enough to move forward with a level of confidence in the product and a shift to a Phase 2a approach. To enable the rich to get richer it's now at 10p - I don't expect it to be here for long - we are now in the opportunity phase again with the next threat being that of poor P1a top line data, hopefully the nailed on presumptions are correct this time around.
The levels of opportunity now exist on both sides, investors to make money and the BoD to rescue their credability and competence to run this into a high value license deal. I do believe Tim and John should take a pay cut until a license is agreed. I also believe Parker is on his last chance with shareholders and HNWI's. I think once a license is signed for SDC-1801 then Sareum should buyback a substantial amount of the shares until a takeover is completed. It's at that point when the takeover happens for 100+% premium on the SP, with the opportunities mentioned above and the reduced levels of threat then I think we can get back to a market cap of £300million+ pre-takeover. No failures or delays in SDC-1801 to date and I don't anticipate any, the only failure was the finance, as mentioned above.
I'm not convinced on using new capital for SDC-1802 at the moment though. Need more substance than the usual lines of translational studies, unless a clear pathway can be communicated with shareholders.
Good luck to all genuine investors.
Https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-pays-435m-xilios-early-phase-il-12-prospect-entering-race-after-rivals-exit
This is what we're waiting for, all genuine investors and LTH are waiting for a license, obviously we could sell, and probably have sold on previous highs making a substantial amount of money. To say it's not investible is very short sighted.
Nobody cares about what happened with finances when they sign a license, they need the compound to be viable to do that and to date nothing suggests it's not a blockbuster.
Take a look at Jeb Keipers comments before Nimbus signed a $4 billion deal for their TYK2 compound.
We've moved to a P2a strategy, possibly OZ driven as original admission was with MHRA. Those who talked about doing the trial in UK - no chance. MHRA are the ones that set us on this path of financial woe in the first place.
Enjoy fellas!
Anyone heard from RMM?
At the end of the day, the value of Sareum is in the patents, they're assigned to Sareum as a public company, of which we have shares in.
Bio deals are the most creative deals I've seen in terms of future commitments, let's see where we are when the data is announced as to be honest this SP doesn't change my mind about my investment - I wouldn't have sold leading up to the data release anyway, and if it's bad which my belief is that it won't be then we would be at this level and lower in anyway.
Don't know why you would sell now if you've held for the data of P1a and P1b? We still haven't got that so why panic sell. This situation is no different that any other odd year where they needed to raise funding, before the HNWI it was like clockwork for the placings. I remember Parker commenting that they had supportive investors which lead is on the think finance wouldn't be an issue, hence the spike to the heights of £4+. Who knows what factors have came in to play since that, but it appears we had no contingency, or they were also flawed.
Unbelievable share price, could have bought and sold this company over a few times with the volatility over the years. Nobody would have thought we would be in this position during our Phase 1a for a potential blockbuster with positive early indications to date.
Parker has really got his work cut out if he is to remain as chairman of Sareum. He needs to call in an old favour it seems. No doubt whatever happens with funding - we won't see the full picture. I'm ok with that, as we seen the full picture of what RV was and look what that has done to the SP.
Hence why Sareum keep everything close to their chest, so we may moan about why we don't get to see the data or who the investors are etc, but when we had full disclosure with RV the market also has full disclosure and decided to take Sareum to this position, as they can smell blood.
I do feel sorry for Tim and John as the stress they must be under at the moment will be relentless, I'm hoping no knee jerk reactions are made as they will come out of this downward trend with a compound that is worth multiples of this market cap.
Parker should have been the answer to their financing upto a license but he hasn't delivered on what he was brought in to achieve, can he now get us out of it is the question. Our NED's should have also seen this coming and advised accordingly.
Dissappointment alround and unfortunatly the buck stops with Tim as the CEO.
I have no doubt that a deal will be on the table for SDC-1801 after P1a, the temptation to take it might now be overwhelming.
Read Brightys post, parents expiring, billions is sales for Psoriasis and only growing.
SDC-1801 is a new compound with patent approved in Japan and pending in rest of world.
This is exactly what pharma's want, with once daily oral dosing.
Timescales won't be missed as it's not Sareum in control, the CRO are noted for improving timescales not delaying them, pharmasols.com is the CRO.
Not claiming to be a WiP character as we all know how that ended. But I do speak to an individual, and I call them an individual as a VP is one pharma is different to a VP in another. If you know, you know.
The message is that there is huge motivation and pressure to shortening the time to market, how to shorten that timeframe and take compounds from phase 1 to phase 3.
I think we all need to realise the money involved here as we move forward, Tim and John probably (hopefully) realise that. Hence the "noted" phrases they tend to use in recent tyk2 deals and approvals.
If we have good results from phase 1b, somebody tell me why we wouldn't go to a phase 3. As I have it on good information that this is what big pharma are moving towards. Patent expiration should never be overlooked, the ultimate driver for all of this is profit for the company buying the molecule. Competition can and do take a molecular structure from the patent information, add a sugar molecular and then go to market. Speed is everything and to Sareums due, they have been on time with everything since trials started.
Everyone is here to make money but the real money is not the brokers or the traders in London, it's the executives and board of the pharmas, are we on their radar.. with a trial for Psoriasis in competition with a supermajor BMS and now Takeda, don't underestimate the importance of this Phase 1b. Which we will have results for by the end of this year.
Yes, we have been hammered by multiple factors, but the potential is still there and has only got stronger.
Do you believe in the potential or not, we are close, hold the course, buy Sareum or keep buying lottery tickets. I only gamble when I know I'll win and I'm all in.
The fact that it has been disclosed that Takeda beat almost every other bio to this deal gives you an insight to how hot these inhibitors are turning out to be. As the saying goes, strike while the iron is hot - Sareum are finding themselves in the hot zone with a strike approaching, confirming their strategy of pre-clinical, early clinical deals.
I believe there is enough science out there to show that our molecule with the addition of Jak1 will prove greater efficacy in some disease models. There is not a one pill fits all here for the multitude of autoimmune and cancer disease's. BMS and or Nimbus, now Takeda, molecules will be better in some indications, but certainly not all, leaving a market share for a tyk2/Jak1. BMS and Takeda are now clearly head to head competition with their allosteric and Takeda think they are superior.
We on the other hand are letting the big boys fight it out with that and have a molecule which differentiates from them both.
In a few months we will have a molecule with proven P1a safety data to enter this space, I have no doubt that discussions are taking place with the very companies that entered the bidding for Nimbus molecule, whilst BMS and Takeda have huge departments who look at competition to their assets and projected business models, if a small company like Sareum can disrupt that projected cashflow then they must do something about it or answer to the board why they didn't.
It has been a very long journey here and we've lost some along the way, plenty lessons learnt from Sareum's perspective but at least they are wiser and look to have the right NED support to get this over the line with a positive outcome for them and the shareholders.
Chk1 deal, as mentioned - an extension of previous agreement really, nothing much to shout about yet. CPF haven't done it justice but that's what happens in this industry. Just look at the history of Momelotinib with the Sierra deal. I mean, this is just not imaginable really. Pay $3m cash upfront in 2018, sell it 4 years later for $1.9billion.
Hence the share options for Sareum are them getting a bit wiser and understanding that these things change from dead duck to golden goose in a "pharma short" amount of time.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals-snippets/glaxo-sierras-momelotinib-finds-its-fifth-owner
I hope they continue with the discussions and negotiate share options as part of any SDC-1801 deal.
Interest, as always, will return. Good luck for 2024 to all.
Happy New year to all.
I wonder how many other CPF deals have included shares, or is this Tim and Co. Learning their lesson from what could have been at Sierra.
As others have said I wouldn't be surprised if Nick Glover was involved, he took Momo for 3million I think..
Good luck for the year all.
I think the direction of the slides this time around pointed to the pathway for another company to be the next Nimbus. I say another company because it is also clear that we won't go beyond P1b.
It has clearly shown the value of such compound in this space and emphasized the increased scientific interest.
I think we have build the foundation that supports a licence, when that happens is between now and next December.
SRA737 license is overdue but the 1000 pages comment is the reason, if John thinks it'll be licensed then I trust in that assessment.
1802 will be retainer for a second pop at a license with agreements in place to share all data on 1801 as it progresses through a phase 2 with another company.
In the background full blown takeover always being assessed.
I'd like to see us behaving a bit more like a clinical stage drug company with a potential £4billion+ product.
The more I think about this RF situation the more I lean towards this being very unlike the Sareum I've known for 14years ish. Market placing was always the way until the HMWI's turned up. We always expected these investors to up the funding when the time came for P1a/b I think it was insinuates a few times from Parker that they have full support from the HMWI's.
So why go to RF? Perhaps these investors are too in the know for them to be allowed to commit more funds, the placing option will quickly give a big chunk away so they have opted for the drip funding until the license or buyout is concluded...
Tim and John have always touted shareholder value and over the years we have seen it, you just have to sell at the right time. I do believe we are coming to a happy ending though, previously Tim would raise enough to progress other programs aswell, this time it's 100% all in on tyk2/jak1, and for very good reason.
All I'm saying, after all these years I've not seen this strategy before with Sareum, and I don't for one second believe they could get a placing away, for a 100% owned autoimmune potential blockbuster. With closely related cancer angle uncle.
Remember the days of substitute salary for shares to preserve cashflow, not a decision taken easily but showed the commitment to final success of the business, they aren't about to throw this away, trust that it has been done for the right reason, ultimately, to build shareholder value.
Which seems a crazy statement to make considering the current market cap, but I think Tim thought the market would have reacted more positively to P1a approvals etc, funding hampered that and now funding is keeping it lower.
Overall I trust we have the right people on the table to get the best result for Sareum and it's Shareholders.
What the RNS doesn't clearly point out is that once daily is sufficient. A once daily capsule for psoriasis treatment on the advance. Big pharma have whole departments monitoring breakthrough therapies, Sareum will be on that list.
Good point Sflf, between 20% and 25% I think you're correct.
This should now see a change in market sentiment leading up to a license for 1801 with any SRA737 license welcome to progress this compound without further delay. Don't forget we have been told by the chairman that a queue had formed for these discussions.
With Sareum, we aren't a big company with big overheads and wild salaries, it's all very measured and calculated which is what you would expect from 2 men that design molecules to fight back against cancer and autoimmune disease.
There really isn't a better place for your cash at this moment in time.
Yes we all want more this and more of that, but more costs money. They strongly believe their compounds will be successful so I'll back their industry experience and a 10+ year work process to get 1801 into the clinic. It's almost like robbery, piggy backing on the immense skill and hard work of 2 individuals via shares in their company.
We will be rewarded for our patience in due course. GLA
MAJ, go look at the GDR one and then the Sareum one and objectively tell us the difference. Your not comparing apples with apples here.
I Trust the board with their decision.
The thing with Sareum and investing in such shares is that you have to fully trust the 2 people who started the company, have the technical expertise and have not wavered in their efforts to treat cancer and other autoimmune disease. You have been investing in them because unlike a PH client, you won't know when to get in to maximise gain with little effort or real investment. At these early stages they trade while we invest. When the balance changes is when we, the normal punter, make the life changing gains.
Things can change quickly in biotech and Sareum are now in that lane, instead of tip toeing to the starting line, the gun has gone, but it's not a 100m race, it's a relay, who will we pass the 1801 baton to and will it happen on lap 2 or lap 4. What we do know is, it will happen, let's just enjoy watching this progress and make a little money on the way. There is so much confidence in dual inhibition of Psoriasis because there is so much evidence and biology that this will obviously be more effective. More effective at less dosage, so less side effects is the key. Exactly what 1801 has been "designed" to do.
Speed has not been Sareums fortay, the science has. It's time for 1801 to do the talking now, while Tim, John and all of us investors reap the rewards.
Then when Sareum are long gone, and 1801 is in multiple fast track designations for multiple autoimmune conditions,.you can say, "I invested in the company that made that happen. "