Member Info for NOVECKINGOOD

Pander, took 30 seconds - post below from 13th Jan

"Out of 100 world stock markets and on 12 different historic/current measures the US is currently between 81 and 100 in terms of being the most expensive. On 4 it’s the most expensive - many markets including ours are pretty good value but I suspect we’ll get dragged down like we normally do.

Of course I’ve been wrong on a correction since October, my worry is if I’m eventually proved right then I don’t see metro bucking the trend unless they get taken over ?!

The longs are either ignoring the US bubble or think I’m wrong because of an impending takeover or I’m just plain wrong.

Lots of value on lots of UK stocks but I’m just being cautious/greedy on my entry points"

Enough notice for you, there were several others from October onwards. I predicted the big sell off but not the thing that would start it... I was in cash, no doubt you were still buying/holding, so more sour grapes.. I'm used to it

thanks for the heads up Pander, maybe read back through my posts before you fire shots - if you can't be bothered best keep quiet, it saves you looking silly..

I have clients where I manage portfolio's, I trade shares/markets ETF's in my spare time, these are different things - do you have a problem with this ?

just trying to help, Yuri has a view but didn't see the huge sell off coming.

most on here are long long ramp ramp long takeover jv rinse repeat - I was in cash until the FTSE went below 6000. My clients were 10% in equities, people can take the p155 and try and get me off the BB like they did for months or they can use my views to add balance - or not - I don't give a FF...

Yuri, with respect I didn't say it wasn't important - it is. I was trying to add balance on what I feel to be an overly negative view.
The obvious thing that's not really ever discussed on any of these BB's is whether people are investing or trading - most on here are traders, thats why many are here. Theo and I are probably investors who do some trading around the edges for fun and because it balances things out.
Analysis should form a part of all of this but not at the expense of experience and understanding that the economy will need to be fixed and that markets need to go back up. Buying the toilet roll and ventilator manufacturers will not be the winners in the long run. Overbought on the way up, oversold on the way down. It's the rules..!

the banks are easy to bash after the last crisis, and they had to be seen to be doing the right thing

the tide will start to turn or the decision will effectively be made for the govt in certain respects

loads of people out at the weekend, not in the shops etc as they're obviously all closed - social distancing but no longer lock down. Need more input from economists not just virologists, the govt are now starting to make a complete horlicks of this and I suspect public opinion will turn on them soon if they don't start telling us their plan - if they have one ?!

Theo, same.

Building a portfolio, and promised myself no more reducing. Still 60% cash and 30 mins ago opened short Nas and Dax again for balance. Huge week on earnings - here and the US. Not a time to be betting big either way, we'll get an idea of whether we've come too far or not though.

Metro future will become a lot clearer a week on Wednesday, a time to top up or get out - I suspect it will be one or the other for sure ?!
GL

the thing is it's not Yuri that decides fair value it's the markets.

you can over analyse and miss out or you can understand sentiment and when assets are expensive or cheap and then build or reduce positions.

he would have said every tech stock in the US was expensive 5 years ago, a lot of millionaires have been made over that time by just following the herd.

I don't disagree with some of your thinking Yuri, but it's only one part of the stock buying equation..

Banks and most cyclicals are oversold - Fact ! Time will tell which ones will recover and double in value and which ones have more underlying structural problems.

bigger swings on the Nas and Dax - more risk but more fun it you catch it right. Both recovered nearly 2% since this morning, lets see if it lasts going in to the weekend.

Theo, valuations on Tech are still/again completely absurd.

They may continue to defy gravity and be justified in more and more bizarre ways, but i'm not convinced ?!

Still happy to trade in and out of longs and shorts at the moment as we seem to be range bound near term.

Hoping the US has a great open and I can short the F out of it again..

GL

https://www.ft.com/content/26b4b77b-81c8-4cbb-a7ee-217b1d71e0dc?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

a good start to the day, sold shorts so time to go shopping again.

no point adding any more stimulus in the UK, we need to spend the time and money on getting proper testing up and running so that we can turn the dial back up. Too much listening to virologists now, I totally get it but it's too much fear and it's not commercial centric enough.

we don't want the Trump stupidity but we're getting stupid at the other end of the spectrum.

no games with metro, don't overthink it, the sector is bombed out for obvious reasons, the business model and therefore the numbers/forecasts will determine whether this is one of the big recovery plays - or not

PI's won't make a difference either way.

very good, touché on my spelling - every dog :o)

Gilead.. drug called Remdesivir - do I pass second time ?

my clients were right, they said it wouldn't be a game changer as it's an anti viral not an anti biotic.

came up on my IG feed, from the FT apparently.

hot off the press - the gilled wonder drug has failed its first trial - that will change things a little tomorrow I suspect..

ta, didn't buy AML yet, just lucky on tlw obviously.
If there was any skill involved I'd have bought a lot more. Covered my losses on my Dax and NAS shorts today though :0)

whitebox and citadel were up .65% between them on Tullow on Tuesday

shares are up 60% since then - they get it wrong as often as they get it right I've noticed over the years.

odious odey was massively shorting tesla too - that went well ..!

btw, from an industry perspective - AV not L&G - both will be fine but L&G have upset the IFA market which will start show in their numbers - probably

also bought some BUR yesterday and am now finally looking at AML and TED to add to the list, building slowly and trying to get some balance into banks and funds. Market shorts just opened again, you should try it if you don't already -makes a falling market a bit more pleasing.

dogger isn't cyberdog if that's what you think, dogger is gone, he is an ex dogger after blowing his stack and some borrowed money taking pion3rs advice on NMC. I was having a nice time with pio3 and the other bipolar coke heads on advfn yesterday - long overdue..

i don't think so, but there aren't many on here who fit that bill any more.

I don't think this BB is the root cause of the share price being 90ish pence either

bs - who is "their" ?