Member Info for NorthernShark

I appreciate people have concerns when there is a fall in the share price (on very low volume and global market volitility!) but I would think it is better to review the facts, interviews or published RNS's.

I personally don't think it is a good use of Leons time to give a daily commentary but to Frogs point someone like Ricus could post a picture or video. He did say the downtime wasn't wasted with the plant undergoing maintenance whilst offline. If damage had been done then I suggest it would have been declared in the RNS as is potentially a material impact.

I am hoping for an update on the OB1 project within the next week or so. I certainly don't think any impact is priced in currently and could provide a welcome stimulus.

ATB Northern

He backed down when the Colombians agreed to let the flights carrying illegal immigrants land. More the Chinese AI Deekseek story which could have big implications for US big tech earnings and businesses which have high multiples through being in the AI supply chain. Nasdaq will be hammered today if the opening in Europe is anything to go by

Don’t forget PGMs

We talk a lot about the importance of copper in construction, electrical goods, electric vehicles and renewable energy production.

We should also be talking about how the digitalisation of our world underscores the need to produce more copper than ever before.

Rapid advancements in AI, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing are driving unprecedented demand for data storage and processing power.

This surge is fuelling the expansion of data centres worldwide, making them the backbone of our digital economy.

Copper is essential for the efficient operation of data centres, playing a critical role in electrical wiring, cooling systems, and network infrastructure.

Its superior conductivity and reliability make it indispensable for maintaining the high performance and uptime that modern data centres require.

At BHP, we estimate that copper demand in data centres will increase six-fold by 2050, reaching nearly 3 million tonnes annually.

That uplift is roughly equivalent to the combined annual output of the world's four largest copper mines today.

This growth is not just about meeting current needs but also about future-proofing infrastructure to handle the exponential increase in data traffic.

As the world continues to innovate and expand, the importance of copper in data centre operations cannot be overstated.

It's not just a material; it's the under-recognised ingredient in our digital economy

Shuvlin, I would prefer we focus on Zambia at the moment but over time I agree geographical diversification would be beneficial. In Zambia however there are so many opportunities to get first mover advantage on.

If we can get the OB1 project over the line with IRH or other third party with the associated payment for work done to date, then I think we will secure a number of other small scale licences in short order.

ATB Northern

Jonah, in terms of OB1 I can only give my impressions following the discussions with Leon at the AGM.

My understanding is the material should have gone through in early Nov and so shouldn't be impacted by the shut down and no delays were mentioned with the operational update.

Rather than worrying about IRH he was frustrated with the length of time they were taking on the due diligence as he clearly thought they had demonstrated the ability to process the material. He was very clear that other serious players were interested.

Discount is an interesting one and my supposition on this is that we are the only game in town as we are the only ones who can process the material. The owner might want/need the money so were happy to negotiate a lower sum or there maybe some future payments based on production which are part of the agreement? Pure supposition from my part on this question.

ATB Northern

A fair bit of talk about EV or not and the impact of the US. The following provides a view and I would suggest the US is part of the agenda but its not driving the story www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars. I work in this space and think there is not a binary choice. EV's certainly have a part to play in urban environments given air quality issues. Hydrogen in the long term will play a role for HGV's and areas like shipping. Hybrids also have a place but can be the worst of both worlds if not used correctly (i.e. Plugins which don't get charged but are used to lower tax bills - like here in the UK and other EU countries).

ATB Northern

Good to see a bullish opinion on the power with solar coming on stream in Q2 and imports from Tanzania

When we spoke to Leon at the AGM he was clearly frustrated by the hoops they had to go through with IRH. He was very clear their negotiation position has improved as the due diligence (drilling, testing and now processing) progressed and that other parties were in the mix. This is why I do think if IRH are the partners that the percentages will be adjusted to the benefit of JLP.

HD, its a valid question. From memory the plan was to run this through in early November and would take approx a week so hopefully went through before the power issues hit. I would have thought this would have been mentioned seperately if not. I would think they are in contractual discussions either with IRH or a different third party but obviously could be wide of the mark.

ATB Northern

HD, I agree I think there will be some more small scale licence deals shortly.

For what its worth I think the sequence will be OB1/IRH (or another partner) being agreed but closer to a 50:50 split on the JV given the amount of due diligence which has de-risked the project to a large degree.

The cash which will be released from the formation of the JV will be used by JLP to acquire two more open pit operations.

ATB Northern

I think they would re-negotiate the margin if they are putting through 120k oz per year as well

Seis, I take your point but in his analysis he thinks the PGM basket will rise above the point where it becomes economic to use the JV. I am probably being pedantic but the impact of years worth of up to 120k additional PGMs is highly substantial even if we only get a split from the JV!

ATB Northern

Interesting The Oak Bloke recognises the stockpiles at Munkoyo but not the vast amount of PGM material ready for processing via the JV once the basket price gets over $1,500. He does make a valid point about the market seems to be focusing on the issues rather than the progress but that sentiment can turn quickly as we have seen over the last few days.

ATB Northern

Herd mentality!

Mikie, worthwhile also noting that the growth in chrome will be driven by our own feedstock which is higher in margin than the tolling agreements. The CEO at Tharisa mentioned they think the Chrome price will head back upwards.

Black Swan is the PGM basket price. If / when it gets to the JLP threshold to use the JV then the "cashpoint" will get turned on and given the amount of stockpiled material it will be very lucrative indeed.

ATB Northern

Frog,

Fear not Mikie is about and still an investor! I am sure he will appreciate your concern

ATB Northern

Northman, not sure where you have 3kt from. "FY copper guidance of between 5,850 and 7,500 tonnes".

Roan (power depending) has been ramped up and will move to higher grade feed which will increase production. Similarly the operations at M and G have, and are being ramped up. More M&G's will fill Sable and they have stated that they plan to be at the 25k run rate by the end of 2025. The leaching process which looks like it has been successfully trialled will also add significant production given the already substantial stockpiles at Munkoyo.

ATB Northern

CEO of Tharisa:

While we have seen a drop in the chrome price due to slowing stainless steel demand, we remain of the view that these price levels are unsustainable and will need to correct to meet expected demand. The PGM pricing environment remains stubbornly weak notwithstanding sound demand fundamentals.

Then:

PGM prices remain subdued despite continued forecasts for deficits in the various PGMs. The price weakness is compounded by a visible lack of investor interest, despite the supply demand evidence. The low pricing environment will lead to growing deficits as output continues to decline, particularly in marginal deep level mines, with capital spend constrained.

Chrome prices retreated in the quarter as uncertainty over stainless steel demand drove a price reduction. Physical demand remains at normal levels with port stocks approximating one month supply to ferrochrome demand. Disruptions at the Mozambique border with lockdowns impacted road transport to the port of Maputo, impacting the delivery of cargoes to end use customers

Nelson, I would say you are spot on with your synopsis. I would also add the leaching trial in the list,

ATB Northern