Member Info for NorthernShark

Thanks Shuv - only got through the first 10 which is the same!

Just a replay of the midweek dicussion

15:26 onwards

Leon on the Sunday Roast

I concur on Seisnav - highly valued poster.

I wish people could put personal issues aside on here as at times it becomes tiresome.

If posters could stick to published material and not portray opinion as fact it would also make the board a better place in my view.

ATB Northern

Poors, profits are what they are. What they get used for is another matter- if they are used to invest in growth it doesn't impact profit, more cashflow. From a cashflow perspective looking forward we should be moving into better territory based on what we know now as capex will reduce and the increased chrome and copper production will drive cashflow.

From 07.11.24

The Front-End Module is capable of operating as a stand-alone unit or as an integrated processing unit together with the existing Roan Milling and Floatation operation. This adds tremendous flexibility to the Roan operation capable of successfully addressing fluctuations in feed quality to ensure the production of a consistent high grade copper concentrate for either further refining or direct trade into the market.

The upgrade enhances Roan's processing capacity to a combined maximum of 13k tpa of copper, depending on feed grades (assuming a feed grade of 1.55% copper and run rate of 90ktpm).

The integrated Roan facility targets an initial stable feed rate of 75k tpm of material over the first three quarters of operation, with the potential to increase to a feed rate of 90k tpm thereafter. An initial copper recovery of 55% copper in feed is targeted before the introduction of leaching at Roan which is expected to increase copper recoveries to in excess of 70%. This translates to an initial copper unit production from Roan, prior to leaching, of approximately 520 tpm of copper with the potential to increase to 670 tpm assuming the lower feed rate of 75 000 tpm is maintained. Roan's capacity remains dedicated to the processing of previously mined material.

Edzi, you are incorrect about not producing copper for two months - they have still been producing copper at Sable which was not impacted by the power supply issues and has been fed by ongoing supply from M and G.

This was clearly stated in the RNS. The South African operations have also not been impacted and have seen a step change in production due to the two modules at Thutse.

Gray, again you are mistaken. The increased production on chrome comes from own source material rather than toll processing which is higher margin - hence making more margin out of Thutse 1, 2 and 3 than at the existing facilities.

Gray, we are in agreement although we have not been told they are not going to process the low grade material so still has value just not in the short term. They are prioritising higher grade material at present and selling some assets where there isn't an intention to process for a number of years.

Gray, the tails from the initial processing will be stored and addressed with the leaching process (which will take the recovery rate up) so there will be additional value in the material albeit not in the initial processing

Sumo, I get that and all long term investors are similarly frustrated, but to state "Provide an excuse as to why the profit never turned up" is simply incorrect.

Some people who are fixated on this years copper production hammered the company when there were power issues. The company has taken steps to address this in-year. The profits from the 200Kt could be used to purchase the next tranche of material and buy-back the shares issued within a 4-6 month time horizon. If you look at that objectively then it is a good deal!

ATB Northern

Sumo - can you read a P&L? Jubilee is profitable and has been for the last three years.

The management team can't do anything about the price of PGM's but they could pivot to Chrome - and very successfully.

The management team can't do anything about the price of Cobalt but they could pivot and use the production capacity for copper.

Cash is a conundrum in a growing business and one which is investing in new production capabilities. It needs to be managed tightly and on a basis which doesn't put shareholders at risk (like some debt structures can).

No doubt there have been issues in the copper side but as a business the company is now well positioned and will benefit massively from any appreciation in the PGM basket. Do I like the SP - No. Can I see it rising from here - absolutely.

ATB Northern

3-4 days before the higher grade material is processed. Initially at 30k High 15k lower grade split but following the initial run might move to 45k high grade.

Very tough board decision about the dilution but viewed as a great return for the company and can also extend after the initial 200kt (funded from cashflows - as Mikey says similar to Chrome)

Low grade disposals - lost of people knocking at the door. Some of the material JLP wouldn't be processing for the next 15yrs. Will use funds to progress higher grade projects.

Out now for those who want some more meat on the bones

Frog, the leaching does work as per the RNS. Trucking it from Roan to Munkoyo where the first leach will be established might not make sense.

Good to get an update on Roan ramp up. My view is it makes sense to utilise the existing facilities to process higher grade material because that increases the margins from the facilities. Personally not happy about shares being issued.

OB1 - key wording is the transaction is to be concluded in March. There was always going to be a time between due diligence finishing and the commercials being signed off. I still think there maybe other parties in the mix as the project will be heavily de-risked by now and would hope that drives a more equitable deal for JLP.

Strategy in Zambia needs to be flexible and make best use of capacities available at the time otherwise it would be like having a decent centre forward and keeping them on the bench.

ATB Northern

... or just be longer term investors who don't worry about the day to day ebbs and flows

1m oz and growing each month

I think the communications on the plan have been relatively clear and the technologies required have been built and proven:

Roan has capacity to do 13k when fully powered up, ramped up and has right feeds

Sable will have capacity following the upgrade for 16k fed by small scale licences M, G plus a couple of others and the leaching process.

Chrome will in my opinion exceed 2MT this year with the margins increased on the new Thutse production.

PGMs will hit target and will make use of the 3rd party JV to process up to an additional 90k oz (from memory but might be 120k) at the right basket price (north of 1500 USD). There is enough stockpiled material (increasing each month) for years of production via the JV.

No new refinery needed until Sable maxed out at which point the cashflows will be substantial.

If the OB1 goes ahead with IRH or another 3rd party (HappyD - having met Leon at the AGM he was unequivocal about other interested parties and his frustrations with IRH dragging their feet) then we get our costs to date re-imbursed (cash injection) and operational costs covered as part of the JV so again cash positive.

Timing of the various elements might move but I personally don't share a fear of dilution, quite the opposite if the PGM basket prices rise to the point where the JV gets fired up.

Only my opinions and appreciate others may differ! ATB Northern