Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Putting pressure on the potential jv partner to finalise?

Quite interesting rns as it doesn’t tell us anything really. Therefore need to look at the under tone. Why get an independent analysis of shareholders? To check for companies shorting? Why publish it? Full update on the Sonora project? All we really need to know about is funding. I have a strong feeling Bacanora is now on the open market. They needed a correct shareholders list for the potential buyer. BCN require a month to complete initial work on sale before officially letting us know. In my opinion, we can no longer fund this out with Hanwa or someone securing funding through a single entity. Are we looking to bring in a partner? Sell off 70% in return for full construction cost? Wouldn’t make sense as whoever bought it might as well do a hostile takeover. I do feel that an outright sell to one of the big four (or another miner wanting to be part of the action) is the best thing now. I’d happily accept 150p - which is a huge discount to worth. My long term aim (from 2015 to 2020) was £5 here, given recent developments I think 150p is now the aim.

Repsol would be my guess. From a recent article - “ a large chunk of the firm’s recent spending has gone towards its flagship Montrose Area Redevelopment – with a working interest of 58.97% The sub-£2billion project is expected to unlock up to 100 million barrels of additional oil reserves. Output from MAR helped the company produce 52,421 barrels of oil equivalent per day last year.” I’ve taken a few snippets from a longer piece highlighting key points. Major note is a ‘sub £2 billion project unlocks 100m barrels. We potentially have 80m and only $200m unlocks the first 20 + exploration well. Also note they only produce 50k barrels, so their 30% here could add 5-10k (10-20%) - not insubstantial. Realising the Loberator isn’t quite the small field they sold us on at the IPO, but actually a good sized reserve.

Disagree. Feel they weren’t giving an ultimatum, they were simply letting shareholders know it was out with their control. To me, this reads that the JV partner is waiting on another deal / transaction before committing to this project. This ties in to the #rre rumour. Anyway, very good interim, well written and happy to wait for the right deal.

For me, I have a few checks when it comes to investing on aim. BCN checked a good few of those and it's shareholder register alone is worth investing in. If blackrock m&g et al believe enough to invest then a pi like myself should have no reason. It was always risky but there could/ would be a potentially massive takeover if we had secured funding and built a plant producing 17.5k.

Is anyone willing to share the jist of the article or email?

Still can't believe how this has panned out, surely PS knew if they pulled the funding then it was likely to crash the sp. I have to admit, I almost sold today and I'm not overly sure why I never. Sentiment is so bad and the only news possible is about funding. Either we get it or we don't, and I can't see how we will get it. In my mind, bcn must be open to offers and I can't imagine anyone going much above the 100p mark, given the alternative is to wait and hope things improve in a year (unlikely in my opinion). If it turns out we could of got the placing away at 60p then it looks a terrible decision from PS.

The only thing that softens the blow, is my average price is 80p so only a 50% loss, but given the highs of 160p, it feels like more.

Avilon - aim is a russian roulette, but it is possible to get yourself on the right side of the odds. That is only through long term investments that back both the people and the asset. I3e have that and if your reading this you have probably understood the favourable econimics here. Having the quick buck mentality will only lose you money.

i3e short/ medium term is one of two aim companies that will deliver before close 2019 (imho of course).

According to Gil, its 5-8 dollars in the ground and our 15% is 450m barrels. Thats 2.25 billion dollars (or £1.7b) based on the lower 5 dollar. Even if we get half the going rate at 2.5 dollars a barrell, we are still valued at many multiples of todays share price. ECO is one of the safest bets on aim now and I fully intend to keep buying on any dips.

Mani01 - i3e is my largest stock by a lot, held it since ipo and bought all the way down to 24p. Used to have ukog for a long time (since 0.8p) but sold out between 8-9p last year and won’t be buying back. Put profits into ECO and I3E last year. To my sins I also have Bacanora Minerals which has done shockingly since January but the other shares have meant this can just be put to the back drawer. I’m a big bull on lithium long term. Balances out investment in oil nicely.

Couldn’t agree more Itsyou. I spent a couple years chasing rainbows, made some big profits but also if losses. Overall ended up a fair bit down. Changed my strategy completely and invested for long term on companies I felt were well managed and with assets that weren’t pie in the sky. It’s paid off massively the last few years and ECO is one of my main three. No stress, no trading, no getting up at 7am for onslaught of rns reading. Less is definitely more.

I find it hard to see how ECO won’t be bought out, or at least their Guyana assets. It’s an extremely cheap entry for someone or cheap additional barrels for Total / Tullow. Will depend a lot on first couple of drills. Always bought this with a view to next year making the money so it has done great so far.

Wilk - it has always been the strategy to get a large stake in prospective regions then jv out. This is living within our means. Also a 15% stake of something massive being driven by the likes of Total, will be far more valuable than 40% driven by us. They have the ability to scale and create real drilling campaigns. I still believe the reason we gave away quite a lot is so that ECO can maintain any costs of drilling. I think we would struggle to pay our way if we had to stump up 20 or 25% of costs. It isn’t that easy to raise money regardless of the asset. Delays are annoying and we have been waiting for the results for so long but the sp has held up well.

The thing that amazes me is the fall from 150 to 50 has been with very little volume. No large seller or singular regular seller. It’s hard to value this at a third of where we were before securing 150m debt and 90m equity. Our board clearly got the placing wrong and just got to believe they pulled the funding because they think they can get better. Currently it is very difficult to see how BCN can raise money off such a low sp. I’m bracing for a fairly dilutive equity raise and I guess others have decided it is not worth the risk staying in. For a fair while now I’ve not invested with my head here as I believe in lithium. Just goes to show that with shares you should always listen to your head.

It does seem odd when we are so close to an announcement. I guess it makes sense in driving up the interest. An inteview saying potential jv partner within a month, followed by jv partner announced interview. We forget that we follow i3e but there are many out there that might of seen the ticker or rns somewhere and brushed past. I like our pr stategy and find it very well balanced.

Agree. Also think the farm in news will happen in much less time than 120 days. They know what’s coming and it’s all about timing. For both us and Total.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Anyone on these forums that shoot down other posters are always idiots themselves and have most likely lost lots of money on stocks, hence their anger and desire to inform.

I heard it was 200p ... Nah, for the last while every raise has been around 90p. I’m purely guessing this was similar

It’s interesting which way it is. It may be that the current investors preferably did not up their stake. However after what has happened, the situation is now to put in say £10m more to unlock X amount or not put in more and have their original investment end up almost worthless. It may give the board some extra influence.

Everyone understands the asset/ fundamentals and that’s why we are invested. But to ignore our current situation doesn’t help. We didn’t get the placing away when we were trading at almost £100m, it will be more difficult now.