Member Info for nomadicinvestor

It’s one of those ones where we should of never really dropped so low. Was way oversold. Therefore the rise isn’t even a correction yet. Given project delays and uncertainty until the Ganfeng deal then I understand it’s going to drop but down to the low 20s for months? Was mad. The positive of this rise is it provides a better base to move forward from after Ganfeng completes.

'We' (BCN) didn't really have a deal with Tesla, it was all coming from our old partners at REM (aka KDNC). It was Lenigas that wanted that deal so badly but it was terrible for Bacanora. Tesla were guaranteed rights over our production for a rate that was fixed well well below market rate. The best thing to happen was that deal to fall through.

In terms of Elon Musk saying he's interested in buying a lithium mine, a few months back he said he was going to buy back Tesla and that didn't happen. I like him but references to things he says into the media can't be taken in the same light as from a typical ceo etc.

if we are to be taken over, it will be by Southern Copper, the only other known interested party. Going from press reports, it's clear BCN had a choice and went for Ganfeng. Medium/ long term shareholders will be seeing mulitples way higher than £1.50 a share. We were valued there a year ago without financing. Once fully financed and still owning over 50% of the asset, plus Zinnwald, £1.50 will look extremely low.

We’re going into partnership with Ganfeng, that is our route and it’s extremely exciting times.

Where is Southern Copper when you need a takeover?

In all seriousness, there is a possibility of a full takeover. A modest sum of 200p would probably win board/ shareholder approval. Only costs them £260m + $460m (£360m) construction cost. So for £620m they would have a lithium producing asset earning an initial £120m of profit annually. Not bad.

Can't see it happening though and I believe offers will of been looked at and the board have elected to go with Ganfeng. Will trust their judgement on this one. Long term there will be seriously more value.

I suspect word has got out that the 'green light' has indeed been given (no surprise Ganfeng could speed up red tape). Will be dotting the i's and crossing the t's now.

I sincerely hope the next RNS is far more factual and easy to understand and have spoken to the company about it. We need to be 100% clear to the market where this leaves us with financing going forward. No cryptic messages or leaving it to shareholders to calculate as those not invested won't waste the time.

A 1.69% increase tomorrow would be great. Close at that magic 30p mark. It's been taunting us for a good couple of months now (almost getting enjoyable watching it bounce below it).

At least it is the TSX that's higher, would be more ominous the other way around. Slight differences are normal but never seen 20% variance before.

Ganfeng have announced a further investment into Lithium America's. Ganfeng will increase their stake by 12.5% for $160m. This is for a 25,000 tonne initial mine. Can't help but think Ganfeng for deal of the century with BCN when you look at these figures. Also Lithium America's mine is set to cost $425m - cheaper than ours and producing 25k rather than 17.5k. Obviously, this is a brine which will have different costs.

Interestingly, even though construction has started and first production is due in 2020, Ganfeng are looking to increase initial production from 25 to 40k. Will no doubt be doing the same with BCN. So might have some very good news in a few months. However cheaply they got in, there's no doubt their goal is to increase production by as much as possible for as little as possible, which will fair well for us long term.

Would be great if Ganfeng managed to increase our output in Stage 01. Think it would be difficult however at fairly late notice. Can definitely see stage 2 being increased from 35k to 50k or so. Will have a longer time to implement increase and should have better financing on our side. Is it just me or is it frustrating Zinnwald is being spun off? Current shareholders paying the price for the boards delays to Sonora. If BCN keep say 10-20% then we will not see much value in our share price, if any. Would prefer they just sold it outright and gave a special dividend.

I believe the Cretaceous is part of the work program due to commitments on the licence, rather than Gil thinking it is a good target. He has spoken about drilling down but not expecting anything. The main targets are Upper and Lower Tertiary, should just be clear that failure in the Cretaceous wouldn't be bad.

Surprised at the lack of movement today, perhaps with ECO remaining relatively under the radar it will take a day or two to spread (despite quite a lot of press and interviews). Been in since IPO in February 2017 - good two and half years so far and fully expect the next leg up in a couple weeks.

To be fair for a junior oil stock the sp has held up remarkably well. Others usually plummet when there’s a 6 month wait. Spud hopefully still in June. Things will pick up as soon as that ship sets sail.

So it should! Funding confirmed for three drills starting in 6 weeks. Exciting few months again.

I don’t understand it. BCN used to have no traders and I think it’s now full of them. Kills the sp on every rise with fairly low sells.

Sonora is a massive deposit and Zinnwald was never going to be the same size. Clearly there is scope to increase reserves there and with a higher IRR it should be easier to fund, also much lower capex.

Ultimately this is roughly where I thought Zinnwald would sit. It confirms it is a solid project, with good fundamentals and it also confirms how big Sonora actually is.

Ganfeng should have clearance on Mon 1st July. Suspect Sonora will be quiet until then but Zinnwald FS any week now. Until either come out I can’t see much happening here (although it should, mcap still ridiculously low).

Target now 190p (was 150p). Huge upside.

The problem is our board has badly mismanaged the financing of the mine for over a year now. I think the Ganfeng deal is good but the market is not pricing it in at all until it’s signed off (understandably).

30p is a real resistance point (not into technicals but from price action over last couple months). We haven’t been able to close above 30 but I suspect when we do, then we will make big progress up. Not going to be that long until Ganfeng is finalised and the company can give a good update to the market confirming exactly what funding is still required.

Targets? Out of interest does anyone have any targets here? I’ve not really set any. Given my average down at 18p and the asset, I’m happy to just see where it goes. I think we have an end game for sure with Gil being clear the aim is to sell for as much as possible. Is a billion realistic? Probably. 400m barrels net x 5 dollars a barrel is 2 billion dollars (£157m). Will be interesting how quickly players move once this is proved up.

I’m of the same opinion. I’ve posted before of the similarities to ECO’s deal with Total. Ganfeng will want the full production on their books, not just 22.5-50%. In my opinion the time to take us over will be after the project review phase (3-6 months). They will then know exactly what we have and what they can do. After the phase, construction will start and it will be reflected in our market cap. At the moment investors are still nervous but when this gets going we will see those on the sidelines jump back in. Anything over 100p a share would likely get approval at the point. I hope we don’t as I see the value long term far higher. It wouldn’t be too bad for myself having been long term but taken advantage of the low sp recently. If this recovered even to 40-45p I’d be back in decent profit.