Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Walked past Peter Secker on the Strand in central London today. Looked like he had a spring in his step and a smile on his face (probably helped by the fact he was with a lovely looking young lady). I was a bit busy to stop him and ask where the replies to my email are. Wish I did now!

Seen quite a few AIM chairman around London.

I very much doubt it would fall through now.

Huntertaker - until the Ganfeng deal is signed on the dotted line and all approvals are through, the market isn’t going to fully incorporate the value. It could still fall through. I think from the lows a few months ago the sp has reacted well. Doesn’t need to jump straight back.

I still read the forums and twitter but post less and less. Been more noise around BCN than there used to be, noticed lots of new names popping up. I used to buy and sell all the time, was in and out, here and there but now just have a very concentrated folio in aim.

I've not traded BCN but did average down heavily when it dropped into 30's then again at 21/22p. So back in to a small profit. Not selling until production but fully suspect Ganfeng will take our shares at some point, providing an end game.

All he cares about is shareholder value, because he is a massive shareholder. It really is a great company and looking forward to results from these wells. I can't see ECO being around much longer to be honest. Oil gets confirmed, bids will come in. Our cash positions allows us to rebuff any poor attempts.

Start of the real rise will be when we are back over 100p in my mind. I can see that by the end of the summer. Imagine another leg up when Ganfeng deal closes out at the end of July.

I just wish Peter Secker would put out a ‘funding update’ RNS when this deal is finalised. He needs to state in no uncertain terms our current situation with funding. I know we are looking at saving costs and therefore would need less funding etc, but he can have that as a big caveat. People (investors not already in) are still unsure what’s happening.

Traders have gone and we can look forward to a steady rise from here.

Those here for a trade are now gone. Hopefully should see a nice steady re-rate over the coming months.

Thought we would have spudded by now?

I don’t think we would get any cash. We wouldn’t get shares either but BCN would hold a stake. The cash raised will be to fund construction of the mine. In theory our uplift will be from the 20% or so of Zinnwald BCN will retain. Personally I think this is a bad move for current shareholders and hope that Ganfeng will try to keep Zinnwald under the BCN umbrella.

Hopefully. Personally never seen any impact on sp or buying after these presentations. Always a good thing to do though.

Exactly, it’s Monday 1st July that news can be ‘expected’. Paperwork will still need to be sorted after this green light from the authorities. So any time next week is quick in my opinion.

VSA capital did not pick up that Ganfeng will have to pay their 29.99% share of construction through corporate level holding. It was implied in the RNS but not explicitly stated. Peter Secker then confirmed to the market in the Proactive Investors interview that this was the case. 30% of 450m? 150m. No shortfall.

There was but the research note had incorrect information. It's been confirmed by Peter Secker that Ganfeng will pay 29.99% of construction as part of their ownership of BCN as a whole. As well as the 22.5% of direct project level. Tomcat-14's number below are correct and the financing is in fact complete. It is just a case of deciding what money to take from where. On top of this, Ganfeng believe they can reduce costs.

Once the deal completes I expect to see an RNS documenting the final financing package.

I believe this is what the traders refer to as a 'tree shake'.

Strange day being pulled back and testing lower resistance, bounced well and looking positive on the 5 day chart for the next wave up. Should hit 55p+ in a week.

Spud is still a good 5 weeks away, personally I am expecting it to be much higher than 60 or 70p. Perhaps not breaking old highs given new dilution, but certainly between 80-100p. Just looking at the chart, the next leg up will test 63p and fully expect another leg up after that pre-spud.

Ultimately you have to look at the potential profit each year and multiply it by what factor you feel works going forward. A low multiple would be 7 or 8, high would be 15-20 (mainly reserved for high growth tech companies). Each milestone (financing, construction, commissioning, first production, continued long term uninterrupted production) will see BCN ‘step’ up in value. Between those hurdles should be a steady rise from after financing is secured. Pre-financing mining stocks are highly volatile because they can collapse to nothing with one bad RNS. Our first real long term valuation will come after year 1 of production. I’d roughly calculate profit x 10 to give ball park Mcap. We then have phase 2 and the construction process value steps will repeat. Crudely, costs are 4500 and from FS we plan to sell at 11000 (would be more currently but let’s jist say 11k). That’s a $6500 profit x 17500 tonnes = $113m x 10 = $1.3b or £1b. Now let’s assume we only keep 50% that’s £500m mcap as a base. Obviously got Zinnwald also and phase two 35k as potential future earnings which add value to this. Conservatively though that’s 10x current sp in 2 years. Long term investors will be the winners here.

I’ve posted this comparison before. But Eco Atlantic Oil owned 40% of a licence in Guyana, they sold 25% to Total for only $12m (from memory). They are about to drill but Eco currently already have an mcap of £150m. Total deal unlocked the asset, with Eco being left with a chunk they can afford to develop. You can’t deny it was a great deal and getting in the big boys while retaining a large portion of the asset is a good strategy. So many aim companies never get to production because they don’t make these sensible business deals.

Exactly smrrty. I’ve found on aim shares there can be massive discrepancies in value to mcap. The trick is realising when the market has over reacted and buy more. I used to have an average of roughly 80p. I’ve now got double the shares and an average of about 45. Long term, this current low sp will be a good thing. Just didn’t feel it at the time. Bacanora has always been a long term project, it’s not a pump and dump or an oil drill.

I3e intraday price action is quite absurd. Usually a slow start, rise mid day then fall back in afternoon. Almost like clockwork (apart from few decent blue days during first week of June).