Member Info for nomadicinvestor

I agree with you BigBiteNow. This is a medium to long term hold in my opinion. It’s definitely not a pump and dump, although some will take profits. I’ve been invested in ECO since IPO and watched as it went to 30,40,70,120 etc etc and people kept taking profits. It’s now over 160p. Why chase rainbows and quick profits with all the stress and time. Likely getting burnt as much as you profit. Spend that time finding good companies with good assets and good ceo’s.

What a load of nonsense has been written in the last 10 posts. How on earth if you owe 22.5% of project COST, do you deduct other funding first? Nonsense.

Ganfeng pay 22.5% of 420m which equals 94.5m. They will also have to pay their costs at corporate level of 30% - 126m. Thats 220m total. Leaving a shortfall of 200m to be paid by BCN. RK finance is 150m. So between Hanwa and Oman we need 50m - which seems to be in the table from both of them. As Peter Secker said, we are basically fully funded and have been since the Ganfeng deal - he just can't RNS it until all confirmed.

Also Ganfeng can increase to 50% which would end up another 94m, creating a surplus and wouldn't need to draw down as much of the loan.

If we can get back into the 50's pre approval then that would be great. Would allow a push back to our old trading range. Long term I think these 'issues' will of been well worth it, I've tripled my share holding and at around 25p average. Brings my overall average way down from 75p into the low 40's.

Looking ahead - what would people be happy to sell this at? Assuming 4b barrels (net 600m) at 5$ each is 3b (£2.5b). Personally, I'd take half that figure quite happily. Still 5x current mcap. It's impossible to know really as Gil has been quoted saying value is more like 8-12$, if someone did pay that amount then we're talking multi-billion. Being realistic though, anything over a billion is good for a company I first invested at a £20m mcap.

I think where the board went wrong this time was saying it would be concluded by end of July. With a long track record of setting dates and failing to meet them, you would think Secker would of given himself some breathing space. Under sell and over deliver - that's how to win people over, not the other way around. No one would of complained if he said the deal will take two months to close out.

Anyway, look forward to it being confirmed in a couple of weeks and for the share to start gathering some momentum. Expect us to be back up to our old trading range of 70-100 soon after deal completes.

ECO and I3E are different prospects (both highly appealing in my opinion). ECO may only have 15% but the field could be 4 billion barrels (600m net to ECO). It's more exploration but it's massive, they've got cash for six drills and they've confirmed oil with a successful well. ECO will be bought out based on reserves.

I3E don't quite have those telephone numbers, but targeting several hundred million barrels at 100% is almost as much. I3E are more development/ appraisal in my opinion (a known play in a proven area) we also have near term production at low cost. I3E can generate a lot of money, I suspect to end up a mid-cap oiler but may be bought out for reserves. As soon as we drill (and if successful) we will see that mcap gap close with ECO.

I'm invested heavily in both and have been since both IPO'd. In my opinion, have been the two best risk/ reward plays in the junior market for the last year or two.

Who really cares about inter day prices just now. People have been posting so much about in or out, buy back later etc etc. I’ve been in this with an average price of 17p. I’m over 500% up and it’s going to keep going higher. Until Joe is drilled then I don’t see why anyone would consider selling.

Agree. The encouraging thing for me is Ganfeng have already started to look at the project to determine cost savings. So any delay in final signature won’t delay this process.

"If everything goes according to schedule, we'll have our financing plan sorted out by the second quarter of 2020," Müller said.

"After that we'll need another 18-20 months to prepare the mine and processing factories. In other words, I hope mining can kick off in the first or second quarter of 2022."

Zinnwald is often forgot about but it shouldn't be. Can only hope route to finance is a bit smoother than Sonora.

Interesting Tomcat, well found. Also of the opinion it is only some red tape holding things up. Their government departments are probably quite busy just now given the political situation.

My only thoughts are this was trading well into the 50's after announcement of deal. Now in the low/mid 30's, on deal conclusion surely we will see a 75-100% type rise. An almost fully funded lithium mine with a partner like Ganfeng can not be trading below £100m. It has to be more like £200m, rising through construction.

Maverick - had the exact same thoughts as yourself. Total let QP in because they know in the near future they can both take % from Tullow and all of ECO. Wouldn't be surprised if Tullow end up with 20% and Total/ QP split the rest in whichever way they decide.

I have stated before that I think Total already have a gentlemans agreement with ECO. The confidence in Gil when he spoke about us being bought out speaks volumes (I know he toned it down recently, probably to manage expectations after great news). We let Total in cheap for 25%, got our costs to a minimum to avoid over exposing and not finding finance to drill, then ultimately we will sell the 15% for lots of $ to Total (and now QP).

I assume your joking Zoom? KDNC have been slowly selling BCN for a long time. Using us as their only liquid asset. Drip selling to fund their salaries.

On a positive, hopefully we have found the bottom. Remember last time it dropped to 12p. Fun and games, best to ignore.

I agree with what you write Phoebus. You touched on the issue I should have stated clearer. The Cretaceous model hasn't been proven yet while the Lower Tertiary has. I think they will want to avoid a potential negative story just now by drilling too early and will try the Cretaceous on Orinduik next year. We have a unique story in Guyana in the amount of prospects allows us to be very particular, and to start with, cautious.

This is just my opinion, but I feel the partners have decided to drill the ones they are most confident in (slight difference to cos).

Clear why it is not being drilled - it isn't one of the better prospects. You may say we might as well, but in reality if they drill into it and there isn't oil then that negative news will outweigh the good news. These guys are going to easy wins first and get the market excited about the block.

This is why I'm very confident of Joe and holding all my investment (minus a small £3k I pulled out this am to top up elsewhere).

To add to JamesParsnips' notes, the Q&A was interesting but covered almost the same topics.

How much lower tertiary? 2b barrels in current modeling, but this needs re-calculated now.

Threshold to be commercial? Very low, already viewed as commercial (needs confirmed).

Option to keep rig? No, drilling three targets and will re-asses before confirming next phase in coming months. 2020 appraisal and exploration continues.

Oil/ gas mix and quality? Flowed well while taking sample and off to lab to be analysed. Seen as very good rock.

De-risking? Majorly de-risked. Lower tertiary model has proven correct therefore heightens chance of upper tertiary and cretaceous modeling being right. Upper tertiary different 'block' of oil but there is a read across and similar plays.

Overall, very positive, majorly de-risked and more to come. Straight to Joe. Preparation has already long begun assuming well was successful so next steps should be in 'near future'. Strategy for future campaign in a couple of months after consulting with partners.

Currently added £350m to Tullow's share price (and rising).

Excuse my ignorance, but to access the call do you simply dial the 0800 number? Or do you have to use an app like Webex?

Why on earth would anyone sell now. This is a massive hold and has been since IPO. Been invested here since then and until the last few months it’s been an easy ride. Great chairman and steady rise. This is now the start of the next journey into development. However, I can’t see ECO being around this time next year. Gil wants to sell and I hope we do. The figures going to be £x billion.

My thoughts are that Total want to do an accelerated program and need QP on board asap to pay their share. How they value the licences at this time is difficult. I am assuming a number will be put on it subject to positive results.

I have always believed ECO and Total have an informal agreement to sell our stake at X $ per barrel following the drill this summer. That's why we were happy with the relatively low amount for the first 25%. Gil has been far to outspoken/ confident for a chairman if he wasn't positive we would be bought.

Correct. It was in a presentation not long ago Secker said once financing was complete we would move over to the main market. He would of known of the Ganfeng involvement at that time and the financed project will more than merit a place on main market.