Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Interesting article. If Volkswagen have singled out Ganfeng as a strategic partner then we are in very good company. Interesting how some said Cobolt was a key material and now Volkswagen are developing Cobolt free batteries. Lithium is the sector to be in and BCN has a huge resource with low cost. Once financing is secured, I can see us having a very successful time in the markets. Surprised Ganfeng don’t want us to keep Zinnwald given its location in Germany? Maybe on the cards now.

The key with funding is if Ganfeng take up their extra 22.5% Sonora allowance. If they do this, then funding will happen without being too bad for current shareholders. If they don't, then I fear the dilutive aspect could be detrimental as we struggle to build a decent mcap. By the way, I understand long term vs short term on dilutive aspect giving away 22.5% compared to a one of equity, but at this point having funding that isn't too dilutive and still owning 50% of Sonora has to be the target.

Been an avid supporter of ECO all the way from IPO. I still believe in the long term value but we have to accept that this was bad news and aim will drag this down into the unbelievably cheap territory until positive news comes out. With CPR being that next step and likely at least a month away. I took my money out at 65p, already dropped another 25% since. Need to realise as well with an average down at 18p, that's still a good return.

I think there is a lot of misinformation in the market about BCN, generated by the poor communication from the board. So many questions could be easily answered but they choose not to.

We always needed dilution to fund Sonora. Previously (when the sp was over 100p) we thought that would be a loan and an equity raise of roughly 50% of the mcap. Now equity at 50% of mcap would come no where near meeting the funding requirement. So the Ganfeng partnership, taking on potentially 50% of funding requirements, as well as paying, raises far more money than equity could.

The board have to announce a funding or operations strategy update. I have previously tried to contact the board and never had a response, quite poor considering I have owned shares since 2015.

The plan was for the first two years at 17.5k production would pay for the Stage 2 construction - so have to assume they will make good profit!

When Ganfeng deal was announced they were to do a 3-6 month study on engineering and capital costs, with the aim to reduce time/cost. This commenced on the 20th August (see Mr. Wang Xiaoshen statement in RNS). So they are between 1-4 months away from completing this. - perhaps news prior to Christmas. Once BCN know the level of funding required then I'm sure it will happen quickly.

It's been extensively written about here but if Ganfeng take up their remaining options at Sonora then funding is all but secured already. Ganfeng pay 50% (230m), RK pay $150m, Hanwa $25m, BCN have $20m from Ganfeng and would get another amount based on market cap (would be ~$15m now). Current cash balance (June) is also $14m. That would put us only $5m short, even before Ganfeng make any cost reductions.

Expect the sp to build steadily back into the 60/70s until financing is announced. Sounds like that might be December by time Ganfeng complete their review and suppliers. Not long now and should start seeing real progress after a Couple years of market uncertainty.

Any inclination when the 2020 drill programme will be confirmed? I believe February is the intended target for second round of drills with three anticipated on Orinduik. However, I can’t recall the dates this might be announced.

I honestly don’t know how I’ve stayed in this share so long. It’s torture! Feel like life has moved on, I’ve bought a house, got married etc etc. BCN still in same place.

Too high risk for institutions, until Ganfeng approval comes through anyway. Then totally different.

The only positive is Ganfeng confirmed that they were starting to work on updated procurement strategy. So this delay shouldn't effect their 3-6 month review. Hopefully when this is signed off and completed we will have a more accurate date for review completion.

These levels are just ridiculous, if Serenity doesn’t hit oil then who knows where this will end up. Would hope that we get an update on liberator and liberator west before Serenity results. Might help give confidence to the market. Still don’t understand why we didn’t purchase all the 3D seismic if it was available.

I thought a three well programme was good as it gives you a fall back, but in reality is it just three times to fail? Was probably unlikely to hit oil three times and the market definitely punishes failure more than it rewards success.

Anyway, at these levels it’s a case of holding and letting the board do their job. The strategy and fundamentals are the same.

Yes they will most likely buy 15% Guyana and not the company but someone may well like the Namibia side also. Although good chance Gil wouldn’t sell off Namibia unless well compensated as he really believes in it.

Surprised at SP action today. Material uplift from RNS, totally derisks large play and confirm multiple presence of hydrocarbons.

Many posts here have quite accurately stated how much this should be worth. In my opinion with this strike we should sit at minimum 250p, that’s not factoring in any other discoveries or hammerhead (which was great that Gil mentioned).

ECO now have roughly 50m barrels of oil ‘on the books’. At 8-12 dollars (let’s say lower estimate of $8 or £6.50) equals £325m mcap. Add in 10 other potential discoveries and the Hammerhead extension, we will be trading in a new range by close of play.

It is fairly easy to work out where ECO should sit. The massive thing for me is that Joe not only would prove up more reserves but it would underpin the modeling of the licence. If the model has proven correct for Joe and Jethro then it is likely correct (or close to) for the rest of the licence. Joe also demonstrates oil in a different location and from a different source, increasing COS for other leads.

Jethro is over the 220m barrels estimate (net 33m to ECO). Gil has said oil worth between 8 - 12$ a barrel in ground. Using 8$ (or £6.5 for ease) that's £215m. Joe is targeting 150m or 2.5m net, which is £146m. Combined that's £360m already.

We also have Hammerhead coming into the licence and at least 10 other leads. The market will begin to price those in once a second discovery is made and proof of concept confirmed. I can see us jumping up to 250-300p range on Joe success.

Yeah, good chance Ganfeng are going to be heavily involved and most likely control operations. Probably isn't required and best he leaves before news rather than often. Not too fussed about this.

45m shares traded in last two days, with 92m in issue (and the board holding ~20%) that is an incredible figure. In my opinion the more Lombard have sold the better, their drip feeding the market was preventing any rise.

So many people selling on what is not great news but not terrible news. If Liberator West (314m STOIIP) is a duster or Serenity (197m STOIIP) then that is bad news. This was simply to locate a future well.

This will bounce back into the 40's and we will wait for the next two drills - both which are company making.

It's likely Exxon or Total will also purchase from Tullow, they need to farm down to pay for development. I wonder how long ECO will be around for. Would make sense for any takeover to happen after these drills as a second drilling campaign early next year would send us well into the billions.

Knew it would bounce but not that quickly. Business as usual for ECO, onwards and upwards.