Member Info for Noise

For better or worse, I had a small topup this morning, hopefully a good short term trade assuming some OK news in January!

I am somewhat bored and would like to dissect one of the last RNS texts

"10 December 2018: ValiRx Plc (AIM: VAL), the clinical stage biotechnology company, is proud to announce that independent analysis of VAL201 data shows a statistically significant dose dependant response in the reduction of PSA correlated to time on the Phase l/ll clinical trial, involving patients with hormone-sensitive and hormone-resistant prostate cancer."

Interesting choice of phrase. I would interpret that to mean 95%+ confidence that VAL201 is having a dose-dependent reduction of PSA, interestingly I was expecting 'hormone-resistance' cancers to be included in the patient category.

Perhaps it is just the choice of words, but 'dose-dependent' is interesting, because it implies that so far the higher the dose, the higher the effect, while we have already seen 40-50% reduction in PSA/inferred cancer reduction.

It has to be said, most androgen-blockers have a dose-dependent PSA response at some stages, and these have been available for some time, so the bigger issue is whether VAL201 fits into the category of "better than existing protocols and safer than existing protocols". Hopefully by Q1/Q2 there will be some numbers that let us know if VAL201 is a failure/niche product/breakthrough therapeutic.

Painful to watch, I had a car crisis come to the end of its list and needed funds to sort that out, thankfully I missed this last drop, definitely still watching EMH as the potential is giant, even if the timeline and eventual business plan is not fully transparent at the moment.

My gut feeling is that Keith will get his 25-30kt mine and processing site, but there will be extra mines set up and processed elsewhere, how that all fits into the European Battery Alliance I have no idea. Could you imagine EMH, Rio Tinto, Siemens, BASF etc. creating 5 Gigafactories?!? Almost sounds too good and large to be true, let's see how the market moves.

This also explains why Keith has shifted focus onto Li hydroxide

Wouldn't worry too much, appears to be a good old "Furry Termite Infection" as some might say. We'll need some consultants to get rid of them!! ;)

Jokes aside, pretty bad week for the share price and investors, time to limp over the finish line in 2019......

How many shares exist now? I'm sure I could spend all day trying to figure it out manually, are we somewhere near 550m or 650m?

"Germany and Bolivia today sealed a partnership for the industrial use of lithium, a key component in the batteries that power electric cars and cell phones. ACI Systems will work with state-owned Bolivian Lithium Deposits (YLB) on installing four lithium plants in the Salar de Uyuni salt flats, which hold the world’s second-largest lithium deposit.

The joint venture also plans to build a factory for electric vehicle batteries in the country. While more than 80% of the lithium extracted will be exported to Germany, the company is said to be in talks with other European companies.

The partners expect to produce up to 40,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per year, beginning in 2022, over a period of 70 years"

Although yesterday it sounds like Portugal is pushing to have a 2019 tender for a giant lithium refinery, potentially to apply for EU grants?

http://www.mining.com/web/portugal-sees-first-lithium-licensing-tender-2019-wants-refinery/

Details are limited

Andrew McDowell @AMcDowell (Vice President EU Investment bank) Dec 14
Great initiative from @MarosSefcovic Today, I offered @EIB support for bankable projects consistent with #EU environmental and labour standards that secure raw materials for EU #battery production

lol

Best xmas pressy ever !

https://euobserver.com/opinion/143691

Yeah Sefkovic had an EU battery raw materials meeting with refiners, raw materials companies and the EU investment bank

Interesting news on Babis, particularly the timing

Call me a cynical paranoid loon if you want, but those anti-Babis motions and news articles came out on the very same day the European Battery Alliance had its first meeting for a few months, mainly on raw materials and processing.

Again states it appears to work essentially as per pre-clinical results, the pre-clinical results stopped all hormonal prostate growth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpFg19HJo4k&feature=youtu.be

Zak Mir interviews George 2 days ago

Decent video, I get the impression George would prefer to just sell VAL401 outright "on the whole a clear sale of product is easiest for us"

Umm, honestly I don't know.

In general phase 1 has around 10 patients, so probably complete by now.

Phase 2 is longer (is it 40-200?), at that point Valirx would sell or license if what we are told is correct. They do not have the resources to phase 3 independently.

Hard, are you unaware what a phase 3 trial is?

George has done an interview with Zak Mir yesterday

Specific words

"It works, it's just how sufficiently it works, and now things like cost of goods come into play, rate of dosing, that's what the late study is all about, how to make it patient ready"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpFg19HJo4k&feature=youtu.be

Some decent news on advfn, apparently Axumin rolled out to France commercially this week, some news about phase 3 glioma trial/data being submitted to the FDA also

Typically you need to make a profit to claim R&D tax reliefs, i.e. reduced tax on the profits

Some interesting questions in my mind, a good result on 201 would have been 40+% PSA drop, we've seen indications of that and now:

"Effectively, the more a patient takes VAL201, the more a patient's PSA will decrease"

Ok...so are we saying far better performance at regular 16mg dosing?

Jonjo, I like dividends and the funds/FTSE are good for that, but generally I prefer midcaps with growth potential, I'm still a relatively young pup, with dreams of retiring at 55......gulp.