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I'm not happy, but I had joked a while back that I hadn't seen enough clarity on the 401 deal and had assumed there would be at least one more placing, so at the very least I'm not surprised.

On the positive spin of things, if they can partner out 401 and if there is an upfront payment of any kind, her UK investor show speech suggests VAL will at least get their % of an upfront fee.

Glum.

By the way, what the heck do they need £1.2m for around the end of May? Are they buying 301 pills or setting up the 301 trial? It seems an unusual amount staggered over a month, the last few placings were in the £0.5m mark, while this comes in around £1.1m. It's not like 401 is consuming cash, while I assume UCLH and 201 drug manufacturers invoice their cash pretty early (they're not going to wait around for an early stage bio to pay on 180 day net incoterms).

Thank you for posting that nomlongu.

Interesting anecdote about the bed ridden terminal lung cancer patients who got out of bed, played golf and started gardening, during their course of 401.

CAR-T should be available for late stage cancers within 5 years, assuming no big surprises. I'm not sure it'll be the best first-time treatment option for hormonally driven cancers, androgen blockers, surgery and potentially val201 would strike me as better options. Val101/bcl2 regulators could be interesting, but alas I have no idea wth is going on with val101, it is a complicated compound and I guess Val haven't quite had the funds to push it much recently.

I see CAR-T as a later stage treatment for the next 5 years or so. Autolus have some interesting trials with fast off switching that could improve industry confidence with it (historic trials with CAR-T solutions included some serious side effects).

I think nomlungu may be academically correct with the protein Vs peptide argument, but it would still have to progress through pre-clinical studies and I'm not aware of a protein version of 201, so that would take 5-10 years of playing catch up?

On the positive side, there's probably less than two months until the existing trial is complete, so there are very likely to be PSA graphs and clinical experience at 16mg dosing multiple times per week. If the bloody thing works, there should be some decent evidence by now. I am pondering if there may be a rush of interest in May, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Will they sell upfront? Will they license? Partner? I assume it'll be similar to the 401 process, but there is an outside chance someone will want to fast track the compound back into a phase 2/3 trial. UCLH will have all the right connections if the results are spectacular.

From recollection Satu likes to hit the Chateau Musar by 545 so we might be safe for today. No promises.

Plus, I'm off to open something tasty myself..

Hehe

Wait til 530ish to be sure about that RNS... ;)

How does the 6 month runway work? Could you use a loi as a credit note to show 6 month solvency?

Ahhh Abcam spam, another dot connected in the wider picture.

Thoth2, agreed, Letters of Intent are better than nothing, but not by much. They only confer a vague undetailed potential plan and some level of discussion. I guess there was a lot of noise about a Q1 deal, and this was all they could provide at that moment in time. Personally, when I heard the timeline of Q1 uttered, I assumed it would be Q2, so I'll expect it by the end of Q2

I personally believe Satu will want to issue an update before the AGM to smooth out investor relations on the day, even by VAL standards I cannot completely rule out a "deal signed for August completion - PS here's another raise !" RNS.

Placing? Who knows. It's hard to gauge Valirx's cashflow at the moment. Historically I think the trial expediture has been a bit lumpy and reasonably upfront, 401 is not taking any cash, 201 hopefully already paid for trial + drug samples.

I'm personally being pessimistic and assuming there will be one more placing, depending on how much leeway Satu has to issue new equity. If VAL401 deal involves £2m+ upfront we should be OK for a while. Otherwise, the 201 potential partnering could take the same time as 401 (or could be snapped up quicker if bought ourgitht) - so you need to factor in that Valirx are unlikely to get a pot of 201 cash by June 2019.

Sentiment could improve once Valirx actually move into tangible cash-backed business territory and phase 3 assets. It's remarkable what happens in the AIM markets once cashflow negative businesses progress into cash generative territory with tangible assets, but as always caution should be advised in AIM/biotech.

Haven't got a clue where you're going with that MHRA/FOI email ValJu. It's been two weeks since the 401 LoI update, these things do not happen quickly but it sounded like they were on the last furlong.

Considering personal milestones and management goals, I suspect there would be a strong focus on Satu's mind to announce the 401 details just prior to the AGM. A complete guess there on my behalf, but the newsflow and timeline would suggest they are aligned. We'd all rather not drag this out into Q3/4..

Hmm, £51m upfront? Would the patients be better served making friends in Amsterdam cafes?

Interesting through, seem to be mostly targeting cancer pain relief and fibrosis.

lol interview, not presentation. Nice update tho

I cannot claim a huge knowledge of endometriosis treatments. But from recollection a friend has it and it boils down to:

-pain management
-androgen blockers (resulting in consequential bone density loss/osteoporosis, bleeding, nausea, loss of hair, bloating, weight gain)
-surgery to cut out the growths

In theory 201/301 has fascinating potential in this market, but will need to jump through many hoops. The trial design will be interesting, could they focus on older, terminal, serious and infertile patients to begin with? From an ethical viewpoint this is clearly a safer starting point than a young fertile patient.

Always keep the staff away from Las Vegas business trips!

I would love to visit California again.

Usually a sign of a furry termite infection on the LSE server mate ;)

Abiraterone is a great drug to begin with, but it has severe side effects and stops working after a couple of years. It will be interesting to see how the theory correlates into medical outcomes, since 201 could be a permanent solution with relatively acceptable side effects. 201 is currently weekly injection I think

From what I can tell VAL301 is being progressed as an assumed pill delivery system, the practicality of healthy young females injecting daily is not ideal. George has suggested this is technically feasible, with a number of challenges, primarily related to variable transfer rates / irregular dosing that naturally comes from stomach-to-blood pill solutions.

George has been quite clear he sees a future for the pill variant as a replacement for 201, assuming it passes the safety/efficacy stages as a useful product.

Thanks for the #update nomlungu. Your presence as always is richly anticipated.

Feedback from the show?