Member Info for Noise

From what I can gather, a probably fake Twitter account has been spamming some rumours, odd garbled rumours that frankly don't make sense (I don't like being a semantic pedant, but the statement does not make logical sense).

I say fake Twitter account cause they have no likes, followers or follow anyone, and seems to follow the weird Twitter pattern of users like Russell Cox, who seems to go heavily pro or anti Valirx depending on the position of the moon.

Uncanny - I am a scientist, but few of my skills apply to the bioscience realm (I am married to a senior medic, who is somewhat perplexed at the regular questions about prostate cancer pharmacokinetics!!).

There is plenty of information out there on Valirx's compounds and I have followed them since 2016. I've made a habit of watching every presentation and reading the Valirx patents (I have worked briefly in patent law).

Amusingly, I actually find myself adding good and bad commentary for balance, I think its healthier being pragmatic this way, I don't want to be accused of being a shill.... ;)

Badshah - We are awaiting the (full) 5mg, 8mg and 16mg results. We can be sure these exist at UCLH by now, its debatable whether UCLH have passed the full dataset to Valirx (anecdotally perhaps, I believe UCLH report quarterly on formal trial progress). So then you have to consider when Satu would release this information, historically she has tended to set up the equity release and then release major datasets (for obvious reasons).

With the new equity organised, cynics could theorise she is lining up a large dataset release. We should have at least 1 months PSA data at 16mg, so its down to Satu's perogative at this point. A pessimist could say it'll take 3-6 months to provide a formal trial report (but I'd expect some early results to be presented).

Oil Beast, the unusual thing for me is that Valirx has so far appeared to focus on long term clinical development, it remains to be seen whether they would prefer to sell VAL201 completely, or if they will search for a partnership/JV/co-financing.

It all changes overnight if VAL201 demonstrates a consistent 50% reduction in PSA with no side effects, if so then its not unreasonable to think a major might take a £100-200m+ purchase (I've seen worse drug potentials go for much higher values). It seems a bit glum and optimistic to think like this, but we are not far away (weeks/months) from the largest dataset release in Valirx history.

On the positive side of things, they've had plenty of practice writing these RNS, so at least they had some good templates to work from.

Also, we didn't have the regular hiccup of "derive from Word class institutions...".

Standard Valirx protocol really until the cash comes in (sigh). There's shares to be sold, lets hope that means pressure on Satu to post some decent results. PSA...PSA...PSA... (I'm sounding American now).

Uncanny, yes the suggested reduction in metastatic growths is curious and potentially important. It makes sense if you think about it, if it reduces cell growth by 50%, then it should be no surprise if it prevents 50% of metastatic growths. The mechanics are slightly different (metastatic growths have to either break the local barriers or become mobile, so if there's a reduction in growth it should correlate with reduced opportunity to migrate).

OK, I'll follow the links this evening and try and wrap my head around it.

Hi Chelsea, hope you don't mind me popping over here briefly. What is the context of this new delivery system? Admittedly I haven't followed SCLP in detail, but I didn't get the context/repercussions of the RNS. Is it for imminent trial, or future trial? It reads like there was a sub-optimal issue with the legacy electroporation process? That appears to be resolved with the new adapted process.

Hydrogen is an oddity with cars, I think there is a practical problem of "is it safe to let your granny fill her car up with a pressurised Hydrogen storage system?". There are some interesting ideas of using surplus renewables to create backup hydrogen, but I think it'll be a niche solution for regions with high levels renewable power.

I have just tried out the new LSE beta website, different chat/UI/analysis interface. I quite like it (I had to click on the beta test banner at the top of the page)

Nice upward trend of late, may consider re-investment here, I do love a growth market and lithium is right up there. Not entirely sure I have followed BCNs financing policies since they moved from Canada though.

Hi Chelsea, what's actually new in that SCLP announcement? Some new delivery mechanism? Is this likely to be tested soon, or in 2-3 years time?

Kinda just sitting over here waiting for June/results.

Drac, it's odd, there are a variety of reasons the Valirx message board is so popular/unpopular (depending on how you look at it).

The UK government backed Valirx in 2016 as an example of industry best practice, I don't recall the exact criteria, but I assume it was related to lower cost drug R&D and potential ground breaking efficacy ( http://www.valirx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/The-2016-Parliamentary-Review-Valirx-plc.pdf )

I would presume that paraliament does not give that award out without due consideration.

Then you can get into all sorts of conspiracy theories about why the trolls are here, some are indeed professional trolls and/or rivals (I think I can even name who 1-2 persistent trolls are, based on their historic comments and company recommendations). Mostly I presume it comes down into either commercial rivalry and/or media sabotage.

IF val201 works as expected, in a 5-10year timeframe it would shift tens of billions of revenue away from established companies and Doctors. A big IF, but certainly possible. Imagine the howling of American doctors who could be replaced by a simple pill....

Yes very odd trading, after many years watching AIM markets I have always presumed the absolute biggest repetitive large trades are somewhat related to investors/brokers shifting or dumping shares onto the market. However this mornings deals just look weird, either someone is dumping heavily to buyers offering just below the ASK, or conversely someone is taking a heavy punt on newsflow in the next month?

Or someone just happened to punt £20k in the space of two hours.

In more conspiratorial ideas, some raise the prospect of naughty miscreants trading similar deals back and forth to each other, to give the impression of high liquidity in a weak market (my gut feeling is this is not the cause though).

At risk of being one of those pesky rampers (I personally see myself as a despairing long with probable confirmation bias)....

The trial ends in June 2019. The average time frame is "18-26 weeks per subject", therefore we are almost certainly in the last 2-4 weeks of dosing (if the patients are monitored post-dosing, it is plausible the last patient has already finished 16mg dosing). Technically speaking, we are limping in on the home stretch.

Satu and George appear to have held back a little bit of late on the old PSA graphs, I don't even recall if we've had the full 5mg results yet, so the 8/16mg dosing results are coming up soon. Satu will feel the pressure to release these once she knows she can clear some equity if the results are good enough - so I presume she will pump these out if/when the AGM approves the equity release.

Correct, when every other drug has failed, VAL201 has shown it might actually work.

Ratcliffe, are you referring to the "dead cat bounce" at our friendly rival..? ;)

Seriously - All the best for the MODI1 trial, I haven't followed it closely, sounds like it'll enter Phase 1 trials by mid 2020, efficacy results by 2022? Commercialisation by 2025? They are advertising on Proactive Investors again, so I assume dilution is imminent. I hope it's kinder than the recurring disaster we've gone through over here.

Are they using pembrolizumab in the modi1 trial?

Is there another potential drug on the market, that is showing equivalent efficacy to val201 (as per announced RNS , PSA and outcomes) that is showing results with essentially no side effects?

I know of plenty of other cancer drugs, including fantastic drug treatments, but I can't think of any with (potentially) better prospects and a better side-effect profile. No ramp - open to ideas in this realm.

Possible exceptions for cheaper and better treatment: Stop smoking, lose weight, exercise, eat healthier foods, move out of polluted areas, reduce red meat and alcohol consumption.

Some serious trades today, whether genuine buys or EHGO equity transfers, who knows.

??

Unexpected movements

I'm all about the M&S smokehouse pulled pork sausage rolls. That's how I roll...when I'm not dieting.