Member Info for Noise

January, really depends on future applications and volumes, patent coverage and trial data.

Sticking to assumed trial assumptions, the initial trial is for CRPC, for which there may be 100k patients, perhaps assume 20k could be eligible for 201. I would estimate the drug could be worth a potential £200m, but you would need to factor in risks of trial failure and other random events, even I'm starting to tire of Satu. Assuming we pass what is now apparently an extended P1 trial, perhaps £10m MCAP would be reasonable.

As Woodford is finding, it's hard to do good business with a million people picking apart your company.

I don't recall any particularly onerous restrictions on patient selection for 201?

I'm sure George will have graphed the PSA reduction graphs by now, but I suppose there is an element of due diligence, checking patient outcomes and imaging scans, before the whole story is known.

On paper, it is hard to tell if the EHGO payment presents a drift lower, or whether the 201 data package presents a massive opportunity for a price spike? I mean we really are talking about peanuts in the MCAP situation..

Uncanny, officially the recent RNS said:

"The results from the trial are expected at the end of H1 2019 and analysis of the data is anticipated to start Q3 2019, following which a full analysis of the results and findings will be published."

It is highly probable the results will be issued during a period when equity has been released (being practical about the cashflow situation).

So, maybe next week for EHGO's payment, or afterwards if they release further equity.

There is also an investors evening in September planned in Edinburgh. So umm, it kinda depends.

After all this recent information I am still not entirely sure what's going on with the 201 trial.

So we have an official extension to the trial, that's not showing up yet on https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02280317 and we don't officially know how long this extension will last.

The patient dosing has been commenced at 5-6 months - so are the obvious timelines 6/9/12 months?

Guess the trend now..

EHGO are going to spam the market on July 3rd, that won't be positive, but will Satu announce anything to help shift it? Or wait til its her own equity spiral ?

Oh well, at least things are reasonably good and busy at Syncona, another sale today of a UK biotech (Blue Earth Diagnostics sold for $450m).

Drac, in some ways I blame myself. I could have walked away with a £15k gain when the 401 trial completion newsflow came out. Sold most of my stock at a loss and left a token small value in that stops me from getting too emotionally attached. I still get mildly triggered by the flow of RNS....ha.

You're not far wrong. On the positive side of the fence, the patent seems to be reasonably broad

https://patents.google.com/patent/US20160068568A1/en?oq=14%2f888%2c214

It's not a bad opening claim (there are plenty):

Claims
1. A molecule that modulates an activity of a Src family kinase for use in preventing or treating a metastatic cancer.

Ohhh...he means in the RNS, not "the accounts".

H2h... I had a look in the accounts, but couldn't find the "“Caution regarding forward looking statements”, am I supposed to be looking in the 2018 accounts?

If I understand correctly from last weeks RNS and PR phonecall, the existing trial at 8/16mg/kg dosing trial is essentially complete, but the trial modifications allows:

- an initial session of repeat dosing followed by less regular dosing (presumably bed ridden vs occasional patient visits)
- longer durations of repeat dosing
- playing around with different dosing schedules

Assuming all of the above is intended to view the effect on PSA response graphs?

Another great RNS

Not remotely related to anything Valirx, but this CEO gets the prize for most informative and pragmatic RNS I have ever read:

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PET&ArticleCode=fvzbts3k&ArticleHeadline=Preliminary_Results_for_Year_Ended_31_Dec_2018

I'd totally invest in this guy just for telling me how it is.

Historic experience would suggest that any fireworks data for 201 will be released when Satu has approval to release the new equity package....probably.

It will be a very interesting timeline, but without access to the data it will be hard to second guess what effect that will have on the SP.

It's nice to meet the directors, however they'll do the show of hands, I doubt any sensitive information will be announced or presented, and then I assume they'll have a curated Q&A session after.

MKDon, the same thing passed through my mind.

Weird, VAL201 clinical trial update due, 401 trial update due, NIck Slater comes back with large chunk, new investor (well, let's assume trader for now), new PI for the 201 trial

All strange? Dr Mark Linch is a big name at UCLH, I think he was a history with CRUK. His background suggests prostate/penile/bladder, while Dr Kristeleit was more focussed on prostate/ovarian/Gynaecology I think.

Are the traders (Monecor) betting on a potential re-rating?

Who are these guys?

I was planning on going to the AGM, but recently on a bit of a downer with this share.

Is it normal to spend 5+ years in phase 1? I admit the Phase 1/2 wording caught me out in the earlier days and I assumed the P2 would be finished within 12-18 months... (my own foolish fault I suppose).