Member Info for Noise

Borgie, yeah it all depends really, they've had 15 months to write the trial protocol, so that will depend on whether the new partners want to change anything, but I suspect Suzy has the phase 3 trial protocol largely in place. She will of course have to get regulatory approval, so I think it's sensible to plan 6-12 months minimum for that.

Before that, I suspect getting the finance organisation and partner agreements in place will be a more lengthy challenge, so I think 3-6 months is reasonable. Based on random timelines in my head about trying to get 4 sets of investors/lawyers in agreement.

I see no specific reason to be concerned about Valirx's ownership of 401 changing, either way you look at it they still own a percentage of the asset (albeit perhaps concern about the % value).

Virtually all partnerships that involve capital being injected into a drug trial end up changing the % value, it's the outcome and terms that matter. 5-20% is a common ownership structure, if someone else is paying for the phase 3 trial. This is a surprisingly cheap trial, so there may be wiggle room to improve, or it could be a fire sale.

If 401 works, the company valuation will be multiples of £50m, so even a 10% ownership will be many multiples of today's market cap.

Well, it is complicated, but not unusually so.

Valiseek owns 100% of VAL401
Valirx owns 55.5% of Valiseek (Suzy owns 7.5%, Tangent Reprofiling own 37%).

It appears this will restructure somehow, based on successful fund raising of £5m, but it is not 100% clear how much Valirx will own. Frankly, anything above 10% of a successful phase 3 drug trial is highly valuable, but I am not clear what the phrase "proportional shareholding" will become.

"Therefore, following any reorganisation, ValiRx would hold a proportional shareholding directly in Black Cat and would benefit accordingly from future commercial upside."

It seems the new arrangement is that Black Cat bio owns VAL401, with the following shareholders:
Valirx
Zenith Partners
----Capital Investors within Zenith (however that is organised)
Tangent Reprofiling
Suzy (presumably via Valiseek)

I would guess Valirx will end up owning 5-25% of VAL401. Will be interesting to see if Black Cat Bio remains private or goes for an AIM listing.....

Timeline? Assuming it will take 12 months to line up the funding and phase 3 trial (or 2b/3..whatever), perhaps with good luck, could it be on the market in H2 2022? This is of course a re-profiled drug, so the safety/ethical requirements are on the lower end of the scale.

I'm the grand scheme of things today was quite funny.

At 715 ish I read the RNS, then at 730 I walked into a 6 hour business meeting in Dusseldorf without a 4G signal, having no idea what chaos was potentially going on on this share price.
I suppose I'm positive on finally getting the deal, tbh I am left with more questions. Onwards!

Interesting proposed deal partnership for 401.

Trading quantity looks good. No idea why.. Assume it has become a potentially interesting trade with newsflow timing.
Annoyingly I'm travelling today and slightly out of the loop.

Gilders,

I'm not 100% sure, but I would guess that statement is referring to the GENEICE product family. That technology is Satu's pride and joy, although frankly it hasn't progressed much since 2005, partially due to severe regulatory and technological barriers (it borders on gene-editing, which has ... high ethical considerations).

Geneice/VAL101 can do nice things to regulate BCL2 gene activity (regulating the tumour cell death mechanism) in petri-dishes. But there was a point where Satu was targeting all kinds of activities like Alzheimers and inflammation diseases.

To be fair, the EU science boards highly ranked this technology and VAL were working with some German equivalent of CRUK to progress it, but it has had plenty of delays and I really have no idea where they are today with it, probably nowhere near the clinic for 3 years.

Bwahaha
Roses - I like it. Good luck with your short term punt.
I have a small (previously larger) pot in here. Although I'm not sure I have the stomach for a big punt back in. Maybe a small punt if I have too much caffeine

I've drifted into ftse and funds this year, tired of monitoring RNS' on aim stocks.

Possibility of big movements here in the next fortnight.

You could be cynical and say the new confetti gets issued tomorrow, as we are already expecting 201 results, would not historical patterns indicate a giant ramp is about to begin..?

*4 years

If we like the drugs and the known performance, I think we'd need to support the project/technical managers (George, Victoria and Suzy). Strictly speaking I don't think he was officially involved in the finance directly.

The CEO cfo and Chairman (not sure about the ned) are largely responsible for that.

I mean for Christ's sake, I am not sure I've seen a company go from 30m to 1600m shares in 4 before. Is that a record?

Odd trading volume today.

I would even say, if either of the drugs work, are we reaching the point that if CRUK throw a cheeky £30m bid to buy both 201/401, would we accept? I chose £30m because that's the (current) value I need to exit without a loss...

There was debate over what "six interested parties" means.

Taking into account Valirx, Valiseek, 1-3 clinical trial sites, with possibly 1-3 interested partners in discussion?

Although I have a habit of assuming conspiracy and evils, often the truth is simply bad luck and poor judgement.

In saying that, given that Suzy was planning to start a family and she was the key driver to the whole VAL401 project, I see no plausible option for Satu, other than delaying the project.

It's a shame, because HSD10 inhibitors are showing solid and growing evidence of potential efficacy and understand, so throwing that into a Phase 3 trial would actually be surprisingly valuable.

I await a white knight to appear, because really, that is the only option here.

Is that £865k admin costs in 6 months a genuine number?

How many ruddy staff are they sending to exhibitions to get a non-R&D cost base that high?

Anyway, it made me look up the financial accounts, dated 31/12/2018, I note it lists Cashflow separately to "Reverse Acquisition reserve" and "Merger Reserve" of about £1.4m, are those likely to be actual cash in the bank, or a non-cash asset?

Surprisingly perhaps, I have never bothered to get involved with the closed placing or the WhatsApp group.

Dear oh dear.

Probably just normal market maker activity.

Minnissage, like my recent comment, something is happening, but what is speculative.

If Valirx have done the ludicrously impossible feat, that of providing a moderately effective treatment for hormonally-triggered cancers and growths, for various cancers and endometrial growths, with virtually no side-effects, then Valirx, CRUK and the Italian academic team who developed the proof-of-concept, will be back-slapping all around.

I'm not particularly sure what the cash situation is.

They raised £350k on approx November 11th, I'm not clear if there are any major invoices outstanding, usually companies have to display a 6 month cashflow runway. I assume UCLH and the 201 trial payments were in advance (cannot imagine many trials allow an AIM minnow to pay on credit terms).