Member Info for noelpbz

HITS - Hedged Production between 1st July 22 to 30th Sept 22 is 3.375M therms (1.125M per month at 41.4p/therm).

Between 1st Oct 22 to 31 March 23 it is 10.5M therms (1.75M per month at 52.05p/therm).

Lets say we generate in the nine months (Sept 30th to March 31st) 3M therms per month (total 27M) then we sell 13.125M at market rate - say 300p = £39.375M revenue - plus 3,375M @ 41.4p (£1.39M) and 10.5M @ 52.05 (£5.46M).

Total £44.8M total revenue.

Gideons - My calculations are RUBBISH - 20M at @2.50 is £50M..

Gideons - thinking about it even DEC22 to clear debt might be pushing it !

Gideons - I accept that GL said calendar year end, as that was my memory (without re-listening), despite my question.

Pay debt in 4 months ? - I also accept NOT ON, even if we are TOTALLY successful :

Production of 3M therms in May, 3M in June, 6M in July, 6M in August, 6M in Sept — Possible total 24m Therms, less hedging of 3.375M (1st July 22 to Sept 22 priced at 41.4p).

24M less 3.375M = 20.625M at market price - say 250p = only £5.15M unfortunately.

( I forgot to add 3.375M at 41.4p)

The agreement with METS under a SWAP contract was set up to “as part of a conditional the Loan Facility”

I have asked the following questions on " Investor Question" hotline:

During the interview with LSE, Mr G Lucan indicated the possibility of repaying the Loan Facility by year end.
Did he mean by the end of the Angus Energy Financial year end, ie SEPT22, or did he mean by the end of the calendar year, ie DEC22 ?

Also assuming we are successful in repaying the Loan Facility by one of these dates does this mean that the Derivative Liabilities are also terminated ?

OPEX from last years (SEPT21) accounts is typically running at £2M per annum so no big deal in your calculations.

useful link re suppliers ( someone raised Q earlier today):

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Site-component-deliveries.pdf

Assuming a takeover is on the cards then it must not be entertained until we are at FULL production at SFB - unless the purchaser accepts the forecast numbers.

Estimates (with 51% Angus share) are varying between £60M and £85M nett per annum when in full production, - as such, typical serious minimum sums for takeover could vary from $420M to £595M.
( others may have a higher multiple sum in mind ).

ie. SP between 32p and 45p.

This of course assumes POG holds up above 350p per therm - currently 283p

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

We need SFB full commissioning to be a success.

Yanis - I was breaking into your conversation with Howey - corporate hospitality at Chelsea Fc - food and drink from 1030am til 5pm with an excellent football match to interrupt.

Yanis - in Corporate Hospitality ???

Yes - maybe we will get complimentary tickets !!

Thinking about it we will all be happy with a P/E of 1--- SP 6.5p -- for today.

Total earnings of £85M/annum will give (EPS) Earnings Per Share (total 1.31 Billion) of 6.5p (£85m ÷ 1310M) - so at a P/E of 25 this gives an SP of £1.625.
(SP = EPS x P/E).

I sure we will all be happy at a P/E of 5 - to give an SP of 32p !

IE Dead money

$13.5M covers the notice period of 6 months.

From financial experts we have :

“Oil and Gas Drilling P/E Ratio : as of January 2021, the average P/E ratio of the oil and gas drilling sector (oil and gas production and exploration) is 25.15.”

Assuming oil continues above $100/barrel - lets say $110 - and P6 holds up as expected, and it produces at 500k every two months, then we have a gross income of $330M/annum - nett approx $225M.

OPEX will be running at near $35/barrel.

(EPS) Earnings per share (total 1.99 Billion in issue) is therefore at 11.3p (£225M ÷ 1990M), - so at a P/E of 25 this gives an SP of £2.82. (SP = EPS x P/E).

I’m sure we would all be happy with P/E of say 5 - SP of 56.5p.!!

P6 has to continue to be a success !! - keep up the good work at Aoka Mizu.

Then there is the Forward Plan to improve production.

From financial experts we have :

“Oil and Gas Drilling P/E Ratio : as of January 2021, the average P/E ratio of the oil and gas drilling sector (oil and gas production and exploration) is 25.15.”

According to the interview by LSE with George Lucan the Saltfleetby Gas Field alone will be capable of generating between £5m and £10M (50% for ANGUS) income per month - generating between £30 and £60M annually for ANGUS. (not yet,- only when up to speed - June).
ALL depending on gas price - revenue based on price varying between 350p and 700p per therm.

OPEX seems to be running at £2.1M/annum - so maybe some marginal reduction in nett income.

(EPS) Earnings per share (total 1.31 Billion) is therefore between 2.3p (£30m ÷ 1310M), and 4.6p (£60M÷1310M), - so at a P/E of 25 this gives an SP in a range £0.575 to £1.15. (SP = EPS x P/E).

I’m sure we would all be happy with P/E of say 5 - SP range between 11.5p and 23p.!!

Saltfleetby Gas Field has to be a success !! - keep up the good work George.

Then there is Balcombe, Lidsey and Brockham.

Excellent interview with George Lucan - this man is focussed on SH value. Superb attitude for us all !!

Offload data from Wilhelmshaven confirms circa 525K barrels and SP drop on Monday related to big SELLS having hit target price.