Member Info for noelpbz

Today 20th May, is 59 days since last uplift (22nd March) -
59 x 9099 = 536K barrels.
There must be a tanker approaching AM

Current offload now due - another $40/45M nett to add to the pot of free cash.

Production levels seem to be holding up above 9000bopd (better than expected)- maybe some benefit from bubble point being reached.

Another offload at end of July should generate another $40- $45M of nett revenue bring total to near $105M of free cash after bond repayments.

What’s not to like.

This has been posted before - just a reminder of how it might be:
IQ on 27th Oct 21: (paraphrasing)
Q. What is the predicted output of Saltfleetby without the sidetrack being drilled?
A. The lenders technical advisers and Angus evaluated the deliverability of the existing two wells as being likely to be greater than 5 mmscfd.  The reasoning was twofold.
1. In the last years of delivery to the old Conoco refinery, average production was constrained by persistent issues with the main compressor at Theddlethorpe.
2. It was the view of technical experts that, following a prolonged shut-in, the two wells should have improved in the first 18 months -so it is our view that the hedged production should be able to be covered by these two wells in the event of failure of the sidetrack.
Q.If the sidetrack is successfully drilled, what would you hope would be the total gas output of Saltfleetby mmscfd in a worst, probable and best case scenario?
A. Forecast :  Worst 7mmscfd,  Probable 10mmscfd,  Best 10mmscfd (but extended for a longer period of time).
Note, the combined deliverability of the three wells will exceed the production rate during the plateau period which is LIMITED to 10mmscfd by virtue of the process equipment.

Make that 29th

carpking - see IQ 27th July 21

The forecast from the CPR dated 22nd OCT 21 (p25)was :

“The operator will drill a 450m horizontal side-track from the existing SF7 well, targeting completion before First Gas and increasing the deliverability of the facilities to over 10 MMSCFD”

I missed what has caused the delay until 2 months after first gas, possibly manpower focussed elsewhere or Rig availability.

Nevertheless who knows what production could achieve at first gas after 41/2 years of shutdown (DEC17) - maybe nearer 2Mtherms ??? - but then the real issue will be rate of depletion.

Certainly not NAILED ON.

The nailed on bit I believe will turn out to be Brockham and Lidsey - and then maybe Balcombe.

Brilliant webinar - can’t complain, two of my questions asked - will debt be cleared by year end ? - sort of positive - is geothermal on the back burner ? - yes management time active elsewhere.

First answer clears hurdles on FIRST GAS + REVENUE, and second shows management focussed on SBY(51%), Brockham(75%), Lidsey(80%). Excellent.

Brockham - min 100 bopd, Lidsey maybe 400bopd - total 500bopd

Gross income @ $110/barrel = $55K per day = £40K per day - £15M per year.(gross).

US gas prices are at 8USD/MMbtu =10 therms.

IE 60 uk pence per therm. Cheap because they totally self sufficient in NG due to Fracking and have excess for export.
You cannot compare with UK prices at 165p

US gas prices are at 8USD/MMbtu =10 therms.

IE 60 uk pence per therm. Cheap because they totally self suffice in NG due to Fracking and have excess for export.
You cannot compare with UK prices at 165p

Excellent RNS.
Lets assume production for 2022 does average 8000bopd, which will have a knock on effect with OPEX rising to near $40/barrel.

In the current circumstances oil is likely to remain circa $100 so nett (earnings) to Hurricane of $60/barrel.

Earnings per day therefore $480K.

From last uplift on 21st March 22, there were 285 days remaining (lets say 95% uptime ), so 270 days operational.

Total income from today 270x480K = $129M. - to add to the pot.

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The gas price in USD is normally for MMbtu (million British Thermal Units).

1 MMbtu = 10 therms.

Angus in replies to Investor Questions have said gas production will probably be 10mmscfd, (Million standard cubic feet per day). Also states that production limited to 10mmscfd by virtue of the process equipment.

Various conversion sites on Google give slightly different answers, that vary between 102,825 and 104,000 therms/day. The 104 answer comes from conversion to Btu first.

This may mean production of 3.22M therms in a good month - which, over six months, inc. a February, averages 3.15M/month.

So a bit more to contribute to the hedge

Quantities quoted are per Month.

Gideons — I accept that in answer to investor question Angus replied :

“the hedge is for a fixed term on a declining balance which roughly aims to decline with the scheduled loan repayments”

In fact, according to the stated liability, the Hedged quantity does decline from 1.75M therms, to 1.5M therms, then to 1.25M therms (over period Sept 22 to Jun 25)

Is this the decline they are referring to - OR is there another formula to apply ?

Gideons - the Hedged Production from 1st July 24 to 30th June 25 is 1.25M therms/month - ie 42% of 3Mtherms.

RNS, dated today 8th April 22, indicates first gas at SFB in JUNE 22 so a revision of revenue forecast now suggests total production to Sept 22 of 7.5M therms (.75M June, 1.5m July, 2.25M* August, 3M Sept). *Sidetrack forecast mid August 22.

Total possible production of 7.5m, less hedging of 3.375M (1st July 22 to Sept 22 priced at 41.4p/therm) - so 4.125M therms at market rate.

Income to Sept 22 could be 4.125M, at say 250p/therm + 3.375M at 41.4p/therm. Total £11.7M.

Angus 51% share is £5.85M - less OPEX and interest in the period say £2M, leaving £3.85M.

HITS - All forecast being successful - production between May and Sept 22 could be 10.5m therms, less hedging of 3.375M (1st July 22 to Sept 22 priced at 41.4p/therm) - so 7.125M therms at market rate.

Income to Sept 22 should be 7.125M, at say 250p/therm + 3.375M at 41.4p/therm. Total £19.2M.

Angus 51% share is £9.72M. - OPEX and interest payments in the period say £2M, leaving £7.72M.

HITS - apologies my reference (Sept 30th to March 31st 23) should have said (Sept 30th 22 to June 30th 23).
I agree it all hangs on 3M therms per month - get the prayer mats out

Hits - I forgot to add the May to August 21 production whatever that is - lets say 4M therms minimum - after hedging.