Member Info for noelpbz

“CONTANGO” - believed to be a corruption of "continuation", "continue" or "contingent". In the past on the London Stock Exchange, contango was a FEE paid by a buyer to a seller when the buyer wished to defer settlement of the trade they had agreed.

Strange day, Friday 29th, at 1pm I determined that Angus was going to lose control and SELL, (at a small loss), was on the cards, before close of play - hopefully during a small late rally. I then had to go out.
However when I returned to act, I find Angus had deferred Hedge payments and I closed with a 70K share BUY.
Am I mad - probably - but with angst dissipated.

From RNS - “issues arising from communication between different elements of the computer controls on site" - having been in similar circumstances in my working life I would guess termination issues , either crossed cables or somebody not knowing the “cyan “ colour code.

Does the agreement with Mercuria to “Roll a portion of the Q3 2022 Hedge into Q1 and Q2 OF 2023” mean Mercuria will be paid at the July prices or paid at Q1 and Q2 prices - which are currently forecast at 494p in part.
My guess is they will be paid at Q1 and Q2 prices which would account for "no upfront cost"

July average gas price near 275p less hedge fixed price 41.4p gives nett to Mercuria(1.125Mtherms) ~ £2.6M

Make that P69.

Bistable - alt. P68 Annual Report viz:

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Angus-Energy-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

Bistable - P49 viz:

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

I assumed OPEX included all costs - but maybe you are correct.

SORRY - all my £ signs should $ signs.

Further on the OPEX - it may not as bad as high as I suggested - at the last HUR CMD OPEX was stated at £350K/day, but since then I believe Maris has been credited with reducing it to nearer £300K/day.
£300k / 8250 barrels = nearer USD 36.5. All assuming Maris info correct.

OPEX was USD35 when production 10K+/day - but now with production falling probably nearer USD40, - maybe slightly more.

STC ; “The Subscription Shares carry in aggregate rights to a further 173,100,000 shares in the Company by way of the issue of warrants, which can be exercised at any time within the next 5 years at a price of 1.09896011 pence per share”. - total cost to ALEPH and partners £1.9M which if sold at 1.3p would give a profit of £348K to ALEPH and partners.

HITS - Future average gas price to end Sept 22 is 295p.

So potential cost to satisfy the hedge, 3.375M therms, will be:
253.6p (295p less 41.4p hedge payment to Angus) x 3.375M, which = £8.559M to Mercuria.

Now £8.559M divide by gas price average of 295p = 2.9M therms of production necessary to fulfil the hedge.

So Angus need 2.9M therms of production upto end Sept to satisfy the hedge - but NO nett income.

Taking GL at his word (????) Angus could produce 5M therms - so hedge is no issue

TRY again !!
https://twitter.com/Roofershound/status/1545377283615199233?t=rmtyjADxSeLGab0NCGwGvw&s=19

From 3put on the other side:

hTTps://www.nationalgrid.com/gas-transmission/document/109131/download

Gas futures price from Sept22 well over 400p.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

Sageman - I couldn’t have put I better - I totally agree.

SORRY - not deliberate - typo Howey and HIGNFY.

Honey - I am also surprised you set your moral compass by HINGNFY - bunch o f LEFT wing bandits.