Member Info for noelpbz

HITS - all true - BUT the RNS says "5.5 mmscf/d or greater " which could easily mean >>>>10M mmscf/d, particularly as the RNS also says "the installation of the second compressor"meaning HIGH expectancy.

Dealer - according to more knowledgable than me:

“The greatest likely influence affecting any stability is liquids slugging up the wellbore along with the gas, meaning mainly condensate. Slugging fluids play havoc with wellhead pressure stability, and it only levels off once further upstream for separation.”?“What will likely happen is the fist few days or even weeks of production will see much higher condensates being produced until the near well reservoir built up liquids deplete a bit. which in turn reduces slugging and promotes stability at the surface.”

Plagiarism all from Pusher2.

Bottomfeeder, regarding you excellent comments re compressor operations I picked up viz; "It's also a law of "diminshing returns". Adding more "straws" doesn't multiply output on a 1-to-1 basis. I.e. having 6 wells won't give you 6 times the flow rate.”

What then will the Sidetrack achieve ??

HEDGE has NOT been renegotiated it has been DEFERRED at a HIGHER cost to ANGUS.

HITS :
In the period Oct22 to June23 assuming Angus production just meets the Hedge volumes, minimum GROSS income for the period is;
Fixed hedge income - £7.6M.
Condensate sales - £12M.
Total £19.6M.

If the sidetrack is successful then income dramatically increases exponentially to circa £65M+ and Condensate sales double to £24M - all GROSS to Angus.

12-Aug-22 11:50:12 1.2785 500,000 Buy* 6,393 - that BUY was a SELL.
I know because it was me - no real profit - but now angst free.

Q1 and Q2 2023 has a total hedge volume 10.5Mtherms + 1.125Mtherms deferred - 11.625M therms ~ 2Mtherms/month to stand still.

Angus will receive in Q1 & Q2 11.625M x average hedge fixed price of 44.8p ~ £5.2M plus spot price of any gas > 11.625Mtherms. (Future gas average price Q1 & Q2 ~ 471p).

Substantial improvement in 1.5Mtherms/month demanded whether from two existing wells or successful Sidetrack.

Ideally 3Mtherms/month so nett to Angus 18M less 11.625M - 6.375Mtherms at 471p ~ £30M. ( plus that £5.2M hedge payment

HITS - yes I agree - successful sidetrack mid October should be enough to achieve ~ £21M for Angus.
11.5Mtherms in total - Aug to Dec inclusive.

Between Aug 22 and Dec 22, taking current Gas Future pricing and assuming only July hedge is deferred then the gross Mercuria income will be £28M.

Angus gross income in the same period could optimistically be £21M, with best guesstimates of production.

All my confidence in success at SFB is based on Mercuria’s decision to defer the hedge payments- they must have people close to the project to see the detail. Their experience in the energy market is large.
https://www.mercuria.com/ - I hope I’ve got the right Mercuria !!
Without their decision I would be OUT now.

I think GL, not wanting to be caught out again, was being pessimistic with his 5Mtherms/quarter, and production will be nearer 6Mtherms+/Quarter from the two existing wells.
Just enough to cover the Q4 hedge, with some but no real nett return, enough to recover the OPEX.

The question is “for how long”. A successful sidetrack required.

Tigra - I suggest you HOLD until 2026 - definitely pay your mortgage and MORE.

BRIDGE P69 viz:
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Angus-Energy-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

More interesting than an RNS was the answer to an IQ viz:
Can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed ?
Asked on 1 July 2022

“We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells.  If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates.  All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment. “

IN other words they can handle 3Mtherms/month.

Mirasol (and there is more):

Easy peasy - Angus pump 3M therms into the system in Lincolnshire and National Grid add 3M therms to the volume of Gas into the Interconnector from Bacton (UK) to Zeebrugge (Belgium).
I wasn’t thinking of Shells interest - MORE Angus.

Maybe its NG that Angus should be talking to, not Shell.

Going back to my EDF gas - I am absolutely sure there is an EDF logo on some gas somewhere in the UK - but not in my House.

Mirasol : “We sell to Shell - they sell to UK users. You can't put a nice little ANGS logo on every molecule of gas and have it diverted to Europe”
Absolutely you can - the gas I personally buy from EDF is NOT necessarily produced by EDF.

HITS - Further on SPUD date it is remotely possible that the output from the existing wells exceeds forecast production and negates the urgency the sidetrack.

HITS - regarding the £72M forecast (Q1 and Q2 2023) this could be ‘blown out of the water” if Angus can negotiate with Shell to SELL the entire production of the SFB field to Continental Europe where gas prices are substantially higher.
Spud date when we have the some money !!

HITS - yes I get that, but we can choose between ourselves when to reconcile the July 2022 hedge quantity. (Mercuria may well have a different view).

I note that the futures gas prices for May/June 2023 is 330p or less - so difference with July22 average gas price nearer 50p, or £560K total.

Total hedged quantity for Q1 and Q2 2023 is now 10.5Mtherms + 1.125Mtherms = 11.625Mtherms.

Assuming we are at 3Mtherms /month production in Q1 and Q2 2023 then gross income could be £72M in Q1 And Q2, based on future gas prices, less hedged amount circa £40M - gross to Angus £32M. (Oh, less £560K).

Hits - totally academic - it does not matter whether gas price is 45p or 545p for the hedged 1.125Mtherms, Mercuria get the difference whatever.